West Virginia discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics


Democrats to really well both of those and so they're they're showing that you can have these really really major shifts under midterm like conditions that off to really really scare republicans have you look at the average swing and special elections in the runup to mid terms and then the national house margin that two thousand six result is actually a bit of an outlier usually they're closer so it was seven points off in two thousand six twenty fourteen it was just two points off twenty ten one point off two thousand to five points ninety eight two points ninety four two points should you think at this point that any republican in an are plus twenty district or west should be concerned i mean no i don't really think so it's like those places are probably pretty there's not going to be a lot of fruitful competition that democrats will want to invest in areas like that overall now are there districts where people are gonna like cherry picture maybe then you know there's there happens to be like a really interesting democratic candidate who could fit in that district and win it you've got you know some people down in west virginia for instance where that could maybe happened but i think overall you feel pretty safe is a republican in that heavily of republican district i think that's right i mean i think one thing coming out of the tuesday night result people are saying well this was a plus twenty republican district and there are one hundred eighteen house seats that are plus twenty or more democraticleaning right that does not mean that democrats are going gonna win a hundred eighteen house seats it does mean that maybe the kind of field of play extends close to that far but close right that a lot of republican at the republican ended that spectrum won't get a challenger we'll get a well funded challenger but this result at least suggest you should at least like kind of look over your shoulder a bit we're that you know.

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