Europe, United States, Dubai discussed on Aviation Week's Check 6 Podcast
Hello and welcome to the checks. podcast from the first day of the Dubai I show my name is James Flato. I'm the executive editor for the commercial for the aviation week. Network and with me are Shamburg. Senior editor airline safety and transport and Steve Trimble senior. Defense Editor Sean. Before we get to the show here the talk was you know. There's not going to be major major orders for commercial Crisis growth is slowing. What's your take from I here I think for the most part? That's true what I think tends to get lost in the thirty second narratives of shows like this especially this one. Is that if the big local players aren't doing things that nothing is happening and that's that's not necessarily the case while the Emirates and not hat aren't having announced anything yet and probably won't problem they have plenty of aircraft out on the on the static. But they're not gonNA they're not adding any new ones. There are some smaller players in the region. There are seeing being opportunities and and taking advantage and will you one example that announced an order today. Oman Salaam. Air ordered a couple of eight hundred. Twenty one L. Ours. They have a fleet of Eight hundred twenty C current engine in new engines and this airplane for them as part of strategy to get a twenty aircraft but also to get an an airplane a little bit more capable than the ones they have talking about things that are a big deal to them like charters deeper into Europe. They Turkey now but now they're looking at Germany was one replace they mentioned and also to add capacity during peak season so well. The larger guys aren't aren't making any headlines. There's still opportunity here. Slamming reward to me is a great example of know things keep happening even though maybe headlines Aren't being stolen by the guys that usually still headlines at these issues and the Nigerian airport right and he's ordered more to choose from so big order in the commercials space is going to be a Arabia more than one hundred trump. It's it's interesting. What the size? But also because of what they're going to order think that they will be ordering actually twenty x ray right expanding further into the long haul low low cost segment. There were really fly into Kale from charger. Eight eat our sector with the ehlers that they have and apparently the experience that they're tied with the aircraft has been so promising that they now think they're ready to to expand further and the Saddam. Air Order is kind of oversee smaller scale but but also interesting so yeah. So what's the what's the TATION for Emirates and they've been talking about deferring orders rather than adding new ones delaying Reflection of slower growth reflection right of slower growth end of a strategy that relies heavily on breath. Moving people through this region that we're in I think that clearly they have something that you know Eddie has we. We know is parking. Some brand new planes as just as a brand new three fifties. which is it's amazing? I one would hope that. It's a temporary situation but I think that for for you know better part of a year. Now we've been talking about the risk that the the backlog the wide-body backlog clog in the Middle East has on. Particularly a couple of the Boeing product lines triple seven. Xp One of them My guess is that the royals will work with with them to try to stretch out any major changes as long as possible and make those changes until there's changes are either not necessarily not necessarily not necessary or less necessary because especially on the white body so they're filling slots on the Russian lines. That are not exactly going to be replaced if they quickly if they come up. It's not I blake narrowbody sector different handle. So let's switch gears Ghosn's ties inside. Steve you've been here for several days. Dubai I used them briefings with the names seen people talk about division of the In the space. Talk about what you've learned. Yeah so you a year force The conversation is is quite a different this year than it has been in previous years. A A lot of the focus in previous years have been on I should say previous shows and it's a biannual show. The last one was in twenty seventeen. And they're the big talk Eh. When is the winners? The going to get the F thirty five and the thirty five is making its debut here at this show however You know the conversation has turned areas. No near-term interest by the acquiring the F thirty five. There is a long term interest that started in two thousand nine when I first saw so you start talking about it But at the moment what they've done is they've started upgrade their F16's with radars To make them more capable they've put up there mirage-2000 Dash into a service life extension program. So they are pretty much set for their fighter fleeing their combat airpower through the next decade so In the meantime what they're doing is refocusing on this vision of air power that is emerging. Not only here but night states in Europe as well which is multi title main sort of bringing in this new era of connectivity at tactical edge with Stealth aircraft Whether or not it's f-gas or tempest or the next generation air dominance program in the US. They're all going after the same idea. which is that we you know? We have to connect the current fleet. I we have to figure out how to get these silt aircraft which are actually designed to ovulate was designed to operate completely by now with any other aircraft and now other trying desperately to figure out. How do we connect this thing? Because there's so much information on this and it's the speed of information as speed of decision making that's going to win so slowing it slowdown. Export orders for factor shifted them right so so now. The focus is on modernisation currently as well as continuing doing to recapitalize second third generation fighters especially in this region fourth generation fighters so F F eighteen thousand sixteen but then waiting for another decade before you go into F thirty five And whatever comes after that Europe whether it's F- cast tempest or you know where however that works out about the front of them I mean there's been talk of hope you're might score some expertise over here down here that that could be very it difficult. Given a lot of the political issues going on in the regions we've talked about that with our Lord The Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition Sustainment. I mean the fact is as you know not only the United States also Germany has the United States is the Congress has some real problems with what Saudi Arabia Arabia has been doing with the Worm Regan and obviously Saudi Arabia's specifically with the situation with the Saudi journalists Khashoggi and so You know getting those kinds of approvals for export deals have been difficult that seems to have affected a four hundred. m just seems to have got nowhere the Saudi deal for a four hundred. M's of course you have Germany as part of the program saying they want to export to Saudi. So that's a big. That's a big problem and what we've seen that in a similar way in the United States I mean the Senate Foreign Relations Committee essentially has a hold on anything that relates to offensive capability. We seen approvals approvals for support aircraft and defensive systems so extended range watt won approval came out of the State Department a couple of weeks ago. that deal signed yet. They've been talking about Casey forty six potentially But also patriot. Air Defense Systems our defenses and I showed it should say top priority at at the moment and Saudi is Defense Against Unity's in cruise missiles because they just got hit on September Fourteenth at Aramco In Saudi Arabia that's with With the US and Europe and basically everybody besides Iraq says were missiles came from grant. Iran says that they weren't but You know that's that's the huge focus in the rejoin house. Figure had tax. Okay so we're almost running out of time now. I just wanted to say this is the day one show We're looking at two to three more you deuce the news newsy days. What we expect to Sean on the commercial side what's coming? Somebody's GONNA in order for more than about three aircraft. I think we've talked about Arabia. Yes that's beyond that I think a lot we one thing we didn't touch on some partnerships between suppliers Oem's and tier one suppliers and and customers bowling in Egypt. Air signed announced a deal today where they were Egypt Arizona I Africa Slash Middle East authorized services provider for Boeing. Which I didn't know that they didn't have one in the region but they don't but then the like that are good for Boeing especially with what they're facing now also good for an operator like Egypt bear which has been doing or over decades to to set up a trust beachhead in the region? I I think you're going to see more of that. We've seen a few and those kind of announcements a lot of times sort of forgotten about in in you know one of the big announcements come. But they're never shorted to them even slow show okay. We should sable for commercial and military. There's not like a lot of other shows where everything's pre scripted in advance Manson or even announced advance and they just re announce it at the show. This time you know going into by everybody knows nothing is firm. Nothing is fixed until the moment it's been announced or not announced and we've gone to press conference that show that get cancelled literally at the last minute because they decided not to buy what I remember a few of those so you have no idea what could happen over the next few days. It could be a lot of things. Nothing so we'll find out we'll find out so that's a wrap today's subject six so you can join to again for another one from Dubai. Thanks Steve Thanks Sean and thanks for listening..