Professor Fisher, Bloomberg, New York discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance
And I'm Karyn Moscow and U. S. Stocks are on the rise or this MP 500 up half percent or 17 point, said 33 56, The Dow Jones industrial average is up for tense for center 118 points to 27,650 the NASDAQ's Up 7/10 for center 75 points at 10,994 10 Year. Treasury Little Change Your 100.67% yield on the two year 20.13%. Nymex crude oil down about 1/10 of a percent or two cents a 37 29 a barrel Comex gold is down about 1/10 of a percent as well that a dollar 50 in 1960 to 40 announced the euro 1.1850 against the dollar. The yen in 106.12 and US consumer prices rose for a third month at August, driven by the sharpest gain and use vehicles since 1969. And consistent with a gradual pickup in inflation as the economy recovers from the pandemic induced downturn. The consumer price index rose 4/10 percent from the prior month. That's a Bloomberg business Flash toman Paul Karen Moscow. Thank you so much. We appreciate that. Well, it's not just the Federal Reserve. But we also heard from the CCB this week that it appears to be an environment where rates are lower for longer, and that seems to be all the market needs. We're looking for potentially some stimulus out of Washington may not get that. But that doesn't appear to be that much of a near term concern for these markets. Let's get a sense of What are some of the catalyst coming up for markets that we need? Be a pay attention to weaken. Do that with Cameron Christ. Bloomberg Macro strategist camera. Thanks so much for joining us. So is this just the same old, same old as we think about these markets, which is As long as central bankers around the world are going to sit on the sidelines and let rates push lower. That's all we need. Well to a degree. I think we still need to account for the economic cycle. Right now. The last few months, we would have been in the While our use the word easy, but I'll use the word reflective bounce off of the of the Koga jock. So the economy decelerated very, very sharply. Obviously, is there were lockdowns. And now is we overlap sort of 34 months, things have gradually reopened in various parts of the country. And indeed the world we've seen a recovery and not sort of helped. About a tailwind for markets. I think the interesting question is what happens if in as that Mo Mentum runs out? On we start this season. Perhaps more disappointing economic data to markets have the wherewithal to keep rally from what is, after all, historically, fairly and the levels I think that Certainly open open for debate, particularly in the context of political uncertainty surrounding surrounding the forthcoming elections. So let's let's go to that election aspect. It just feels like It's just it's not even on the front burner. I mean, it's the pandemic, its 9 11 today it feels like here we are in September and the market is Doesn't appear to be paying much attention to it. What's your sets here of how this could play out? Well, it's very difficult because frankly, I don't know what will happen depending on her way. Um you know, there there are the partisanship is so strong on on each side. That kind of no matter what the outcome. There's going to be a significant cohort of people. They're very happy. Ah, so I'm not really sure. How? How, how the market will interpret what I can't say, I think is that what everyone can probably agree on is unpleasant outcome. Is, if there is no certainty, so we have the election, and it's too close to call it comes down the postal vote. It is eminently possible on DH. There's a sort of 2000 style dispute. Ah, that drags into the into the courts again. Given the degree of partisanship, I think that would Not be taken particularly well. Karen Christ. Good morning, Tom Keen in New York. I want to talk about any elasticity or unresponsiveness of the markets. Are the equity markets less elastic? Because the yield is near the zero bound because we've just come down and down and yielding. Lines are priced to perfection. Well, you know, again. I don't think we have sufficient data to test a proposition because we haven't had sort of. Ah, stress test by Ah! Disappointing economic data. You know, it's easy to say well, obviously socks or going to the moon because rates are low. Well, guess what rates are low in Europe to the stocks are going to go. Rachel. Oh, in Japan, they aren't going to, um Show. So from that perspective, I think low rate is maybe a little bit of a red herring. I'm not suggesting that zero impact. But what I would say that it doesn't It's unlikely that low rates Khun Lift the stock market to a permanently high plateau. Fisher. Yeah, obviously opined in 1929. You know, this is really important, folks. I want to talk about Irving Fisher. Right now. This is not Stanley Fischer and we see good Say good morning. Professor Fisher of being awarded the hugely wonderful posing award from his Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Yesterday. He'll be with us. I'm sure some point, Alex still speaking with him. This morning, but Irving Fisher, no relation is basically Cameron Christ that everything's linked up together. Is it? I mean, I guess in what that's it Let's say that I think the magnitude of the rally between United States has taken a lot of people by surprise. It has sort of suddenly recaptured. The 1999 zeitgeist. So ah! Ah Equity speculation. Ah, you know the message boards of 1999 are now for the influencers. Ah, the Robin hood of of of of 2020. But you know, the fact is, is that it is a relatively narrow, cool cohort of stocks that lead the way. I'm so you know your media into your average. Equity hasn't nearly as well as those benchmark in this is what I tell you. I think that's not a particularly healthy Kevin Christ. Thankyou so much greatly appreciated too short visit. Of course, on this September 11, we greatly appreciate his perspective. Dow Up 150 SPX up 20 points as well. You know, it's not part of the story. This morning Oil 37 12 on was Texas inner media Paul. There are basically two parts of a September 11th of 19 days ago, as you mentioned eloquently earlier. There was shock of airplanes moving And then very separately, the shock. Of towers falling. Yeah, it's ah, neither of which obviously is natural, neither which we've seen before, neither of which he can really conceive of at the time and it happened. Once it happened twice. The towers fell once, then twice. And then, of course, the continue the sequence that Pentagon the you know, the symbol of power and might of this country in our nation's capital on DH, then what we saw in Shanksville, which is an extraordinary and compelling story in and of itself. You think about the people on board any actions that they took and the lives that they very likely saved with great respect to other moments in American history, the 29 minutes From 9 59 am on and across to 10 28 am truly extraordinary looking at those towers and, of course in Shanksville, Pennsylvania, I had an imagery. Of the president and the first lady. It was up on my monitors briefly here, Paul sweetie, but I believe the president is on the podium near the visitor center in Shanksville. Pennsylvania, with the tower of music that they have is well And of course, we're seeing imagery from lower Manhattan. A CZ wells dignitaries. Ah, break up after the earlier moments of silence, but still ah Manhattan moments to come. A CZ. Well, Paul, it's turned out to be a beautiful day in New York. Yeah. You know what? You know A lot of folks in a Metro New York area way we share this remembrance, which is when you see a beautiful fall day skies clear is Khun absolute B. What do you say? It's a 9 11. You do you Danny. This's so true folks yet. There's no question, Paul. What's amazing is the shift from August Not on 9 11. But in the vicinity of August 29th..