Jonathan Bamber, Louisiana, University Of Bristol discussed on The World


Looked out the window fake who save for Hyun that was actually steak date grilling steaks outside up on the helicopter deck. When we walked out there. I just looked in OSHA sake. Oh my God. We were surrounded by glaciers that were told the ship into that, eventually, maybe one day, all of these things were going. That's a lot of ice that has that has to go somewhere. It made him think about home in mardi gras in French Creole, Louisiana's like a huge melting pot and the know that, that may be old wiped away because of some glaciers melting that we may have contributed to maybe, maybe not damn yet. Gather Jack isn't totally convinced that climate change is manmade, even though that science is clear, but he does know it's happening. And by the end of the trip home suddenly felt even more precious. It opens my eyes. It makes me appreciate it that much more. The trip also opened his eyes to Antarctica. He wants to come back someday, but he says it will always return to Louisiana for the world. Caroline Bieler cooking dinner for sixty people. Is a true, balancing act when the ship is being tossed by WAVE's check out photos of Jack Gilmore inaction in the ship's galley that's on our Instagram feed, we're at PRI the world. Meanwhile, Jack Scott good reason to worry about his hometown. New Orleans is one of the places that could be almost completely underwater by the end of the century, a new report in the proceedings of the national academies, of sciences shows, there's a significant chance that global sea levels could rise by as much as two meters by the year, twenty one hundred that's six half. Feet. Jonathan Bamber of the university of Bristol in the UK is lead author, the is not saying that this is what will happen. But it does find that there's a chance that it could. Is that correct? What, what is the probability? I think you made the critical coin about study, which hasn't always been picked up by all the media, which is the we're not saying that's the most likely scenario. We're not saying that's the most probable that we're saying that there is a real plausible ability, we put it at about five percent, the sea level could exceed two meters in the worst case emission snarl that we use which is won't co businesses usual. Yes. What exactly was done differently or model differently than others in the past reach this conclusion? So this is not a muddling so they won't. We did miss was we go get a twenty two international experts to identify what thank collective understanding of. What the sheets would do over the next century. In fact, next few centuries was based on different climbing women's lawyers. So there's a five percent certainty that the big scary scenario in your study Jonathan will come to pass. Do you think that is a small probability? And if it is mall. What is the value of doing this kind of research? It gives a relatively small of ability to kind of put it in context by saying. I guarantee you got on a plane mice sent Jones. It's gonna fall out this you get off straight away. Example. I've been speaking to someone who is involved in planning San Francisco Bay area, and it's not the means enough rice that they need to worry about it's the extremes. It's these low publicity, high impact vents, if we weren't interested in mean by this, then we would never build any buildings in San Francisco to withstand quake, because the likelihood is going to happen. But when he does happen comes very, very serious. And it's exactly the same with these high end projections, suitable Ross, so between the worst case scenario and the best case scenario. I'm I mean, even far short of the worst case scenario. There's going to be a lot of impact. Right. That's right. We used to climate warming scenarios, one is this business as usual, and the other one is glor- meant to be consistent with the Paris agreement which was to limit of woman to two degrees or less. For that. We come up with a Rangel's thirty six centimeters, two hundred twenty six that's one point three meters, and that's more like full face so full that is also a pretty unpleasant, prospective will displace millions of people around the world by one hundred. So Jonathan Bamber given all of this. I got to ask you about this week's news that the Trump administration is instructing federal agencies here in the US not to forecast climate scenarios beyond twenty years into the future because they say, it's too certain, what do you think of that as a matter of both science and policy? Hard to know how to respond something. It's basically scientifically illiterates. I mean, if you think the world, you know, we don't care about well, the owned twenty forty then go ahead, but it's like a full scientific and you know, it's, it's, it's, it's insanity to me. Because some well, in particular, because we know that response to the climate system, becomes more and more non linear. In other words, the responses exceleron as you go further into the future not stunts boss or. Grow. We need to know what there's uncertainty design steady just pretending they don't exist. It makes no sensitive Jonathan bamboo at the university of Bristol. He's a lead author of a new alarming study of possible sea level rise by the year twenty one hundred Jonathan thank you very much. Thank you..

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