Europe, Fever, Richard Brown discussed on The Property Voice
Them. Welcome to another episode of the proxy. Voice podcast my name is Richard Brown and as always. It's a pleasure to join me again on the show today. Well today might be quite short. But probably the topic that's on the forefront of everybody's mind the tip of the tongue as the corona virus epidemic or pandemic. Actually sorry and the potential consequences fallout as a result of that. So I'm just going to talk about that a little bit. It's ironic because world. I'm talking about it because I'm here in self isolation myself I have suspected have some symptoms and I went to be tested over the weekend and still have some symptoms now. The results take three days to come true for the corona virus tests so as I actually recalled this. I don't know if I have the virus or not even if I don't have it now I guess is a risk of getting a in the future. Everybody is ashore. Got An eye on the news and the updates and watching what's going on there Very very closely so yes. Wish me luck. Let's see how it goes through the rest of the day are being `isolation for self-isolation for seventy four days I imagine regardless so there we go But essentially I wanted to talk about this The the implications of this virus really first and foremost we are We have a responsibility to be good citizens that way so I personally didn't really understand all of what was involved with this virus when I first started hearing about it. I must demand I was probably in the camp downplaying. Seriousness thinking it was something like the flu. And you know. Just pass relatively mildly Pretty significant consequences From people catching the virus. And it's it's an extremely contagious It's an EXP exponential growth curve in terms of the number of infections that are being passed around. I think each person infects at least two or three people so you can quickly multiply the number infections over a very short period of time and as I recall day so think where maybe a couple of days Or a couple of weeks behind Italy. Which is the worst in Europe? Certainly and You know the first affected in Europe closely followed by Spain so but all of Europe and the US and never where she's being affected by this virus now if you get the virus. I feel like I've got something. Let's put it that way. It was like a very heavy cold and I've got fever. I've got temperature headache. I've got so I'm not very large cough. And what's the other thing So Frank Yeah so there are things so you know. It's kind of like coal flu. Like symptoms as oppose the fever is what brings you down. It's very hard to function when you got the fever. So I've been treating that and getting it down but waiting for the results hopefully It comes out clear but if not we're going to deal with it's just one of those things but it's the contagion isn't it? The he's making. Everyone bit spooky. And it's not just a contagious. Like the you know in the colon coal passes around. Everybody gets the called The the consequences not necessarily that significant but in this case they actually can become they. So the there's a this twenty percent believe of cases of infected people that require hospital treatment and roughly five percent of those need intensive care or a ventilator to actually stay alive in fact so and that's what you know explains the sort of death rates I think it's three or four percent overrule This this lot of mystery and false information going around about statistics emiss- links and the show notes to some articles. I found very helpful They're not necessarily coming from the mainstream And I think it's good to check your facts and understand what you're what you're being told is correct and also what you can do about things but essentially yes. It's very contagious. For example the virus can live on like door handles and things like that for apparently up to nine days so a K- few coffin. It falls onto the floor at probably dies but things like plastic and ceramic metal though sort surfaces off rooms you know public places generally speaking hope probably for the virus to manifest. So yeah it's Is extremely contagious. We need to do the sensible things for example washing hands. But I think he's probably wants the state's now we really do need self isolates and that means protecting one another from Passing this infection and in particular the the elderly really this the the health aspects the being a good citizen aspects but is it really health scare will. Obviously it is First and foremost a health scare and of course. It's only right and proper that we do the right things to protect one another as self-isolation mentioned is probably the only realistic way to go now. But some this is a number of consequences attached. That isn't it so not only the health issues. Were seeing whole regions being locked down. We're seeing launch gatherings being stopped. We're seeing travel bans with seeing what places being emptied to try and stop the spread of this infection but of course not only is a health issue there are also economic issues as well and I guess I just wanted to focus on that health professional so I can only give you some points to some good articles. I've read talk about personal experience but I really wanted just to pick up in the in the in the second half of this episode some of the potential second and third or consequences the light to call them. So obviously we've got the health issues and we're trying to contain this virus and we're trying to limit the spread protect people from a serious illness or even worse but Then let's start to play. The scenario through businesses are not you know taking people into the office you know that means productivity is probably going to fall Revenues are probably going to fall as well Prophets of businesses again to fall that. They'RE GOING TO BE IN TROUBLE. Essentially only today as a record this Boris Johnson is basically said he'd rather people didn't go too into and clubs in social settings and reduce the restaurant occupancy by fifty percents. The airline industry is being absolutely decimated of course with travel bans and people just choosing not to travel. Obviously we've had the oil price crash at the same time. So that's a double whammy and we've seen the stock market. Take a tumble. So these are pretty well. Uncharted waters then. Uncharted INSOFAR as we've had economic setbacks. But they're uncharted. Insofar as how it happened and of course a few months ago to talk about Black Swan events and I guess you describe. It was one of those. Wouldn't you but the thing is against this property investors and developers this some consequences that we need to be mindful of as well. And maybe there's some things that we need to keep in mind the Michigan so that we can put in place as well so tenant soup may be going to struggle with the earnings so A lot of people won't be able to work the hours that they used to work. And if they're on our based You know a time based contracts COSA INCOME IS GONNA struggle. That's going to put pressure on them to pay their rents of where landlords we might have tenants who is struggling to Rents to a so. I'm expecting to see some arrears arising I over the next few months obviously as people are struggling to make ends meet If I'm not points of view then of course you know we've got things like depending on your property strategy so that would be sort of buying whole type of strategy if you will a flipper your property trading. You might be in the middle of a project about to come out for projects and put your property on the market but is anybody coming out if you it What is the competition like a lot to sell that property on so We we're in uncharted waters. So I guess if you're also developer now you go pretty you know if you're in the middle of project on the middle of a number of projects and so the cost of that project could be extended potentially so you could have people not going to work because at once associate with the people therefore that could drag the time out On necessarily you might have carrying costs over that period of time you may need to Incur additional expenses during the development period. And of course come the end of the developments. If you're going to sell those properties on will they sell if you're going to refinance there's been a little bit of good news? Obviously on the financing side with an interest rate cut whether that actually makes its way through into real mortgage writes a remains to be seen. Let's hope so But you know we'll see base rate caught back down to the historic low record of percent is welcome a boost at this point in time but I think really. The biggest issue is all about liquidity and having contingency plans and indeed funds available. I think we probably have to expect that. We might take a bit of a hit and one way or another over the next few months. We need to be prepared. And that means putting measures in place So for example having a contingency fund so we could buffer ourselves against two or three months rent on pied or short paid from tenants who is struggling Perhaps we can negotiate a moratorium lockup. A payment holiday on mortgages with lenders are believed some nine dizzying quite sympathetic to the idea of putting the mortgage payments on pause Deferring interest payments for a period of time. Has Maybe something we can do to help. Bridge that gap. We should try and have fun. Set aside if possible so liquidating assets and converting Hard to convert assets into more liquid or cash based assets so that we can respond to events we should try and fix our interest rates and you know as as long as possible probably in this period of time or or or get extra financing in place to have a bit of a buffer to survive. you know a bit of a difficult period. Biden intents and purposes. It probably looks like you know well into the last half of the year before we see the end of this particular Crisis as opposed. You might call it so I'm not trying to alarm anyone. I'm not trying to stoke fear but I am trying to make sure that we're prepared so this is happening. Austin things are changing very very rapidly and we need to be prepared for that. So that's this sort of mitigation side of things in the contingency side of things but equally. There's an opportunity side of things too and I think was Warren Buffett said Sir to be fearful when others agreed ingredient of fearful Well you know there may be opportunities here. People might be struggling a little bit There might be opportunities to bag a bargain if you have cash on hand so there's the flipside so too so perhaps being ready to take advantage of a market drop or lack of competition or something like that is also something worth considering as well so Yeah I I didn't WANNA speak too long and if you can't tell but I feel a little bit banged up and Not In the best of spirits so I just wanted to do a short update today. Talk a little bit about this The C word is is called the corona virus Or or Cova de Nineteen virus to give it. It's correct You know they're derive name if I could say the word and just share some of my top of mind thoughts with you Obviously going to be looking at my own cash flow planning similar contingency plans and just revisiting somewhere developments just to make sure everything's GonNa be okay. But bit of uncharted waters Just take care out there on a personal level. Take care of one another you know. Be a responsible citizen but equally look after Your Business and The may be an update in the future about you. Support the might be available to businesses Going through a struggle. Let's see if there's going to be any government assistance but you know everyone's looking to everyone else who's GonNa Pay? My mortgage is going to pay. You know so. Set My business if I have lost money because I can't it can't work or a Colin Account. Do My business watch this space. The maybe more updates over the coming weeks ahead. Maybe I'll return to the topic lighter but for now I just want to leave you with some thoughts Saudi it's not the most upbeat and positive. Podcast I could've shed with you but as you can tell I'm right in the thick of it myself so whatever you all stay safe and keep you in check and guess You know just how the the website proxy force Dot Net. If you WANNA see any show notes drop me. An email podcast. The prophecy voice dot net. If you want to reach out to.