Allison Williams, Allison, Jamie Dimon discussed on Bloomberg Intelligence


And the global markets. Each and every week, we provide in depth research and data on some of the 2000 companies and 130 industries our analysts cover worldwide. Happy new year, Paul. Happy new year to you. Happy new year to all our listeners too. Today we're going to explore the life science sector and what's expected in 2023. Plus, what's in store for retail now that the holidays are over. But first, you got recession fears are going to linger for global bank stocks. You got concerns about inflation, rising credit provisions, and only some economic weakness is yet factored into estimates. And we get earnings coming out in just about a few days. So Bloomberg intelligence in your banks analyst Allison Williams joined this now. Okay, Allison, what are gonna be the key numbers that you're watching for when these big guys report? The key number continues to be lost revisions just in terms of framing how the banks are thinking about the year ahead. I think the key leading indicator, we think in general for the capital markets business, first quarter tends to be the strongest. And so fourth quarter, we know is pretty weak. It's not going to be that meaningful. The questions in terms of revenue are going to center around how the first quarter's going granted we're very early in the year. Is there potential to execute some of the banking fee pipelines? That was a big disappointment last year. And then what are we seeing in terms of loan growth? What are we seeing in terms of net interest income? That was a huge story last year. We expect some slowing in terms of the growth rate for net interest income. But we'll be watching again for loan growth, card, it tends to be seasonally strong quarter and we'll see if consumers were using their cards over the holidays. You mentioned loan growth there. I know that some of the, and it's not just the mortgage market of the consumer market, but I remember Jamie Dimon saying over many quarters in the Bank of America folks saying the same thing that loan growth and loan demand really wasn't there for the last several quarters and maybe that was simply a function of the government was loading so many people so much money with all the stimulus. How do you expect that to look in 2023? So loan growth throughout really the pandemic was disappointing. And it is exactly, as you said, attributed to the stimulus. And credit card, which is one of the most profitable or the most profitable loan product for these banks, was really the hardest hit. And so what the banks are looking for as we move into 2023 is for those loans to normalize. We did definitely see some improvement, especially on the commercial side of things last year. We saw in the third quarter, we actually saw some pullback, but that was strategic in terms of the banks. Keeping control of their balance sheet just so that they could make sure that their capital ratios were shored up in accordance with some higher requirements. So we saw a little bit of pullback in commercials that should study, we think of this quarter. Again, going back to credit as being, I think, the big wildcard for this year. Totally. And when you're dealing with credit for a consumer or you're looking at it from companies that they're lending to, what do you think we're going to hear about recession and default risk? Whether or not you're dealing with the consumer or other companies. I think we'll still hear that things are pretty healthy. Keep in mind that the worries are all forward looking and even though recession fear is really weighed on the stock last year, it was a very strong year for credit. We do expect to see reserve building again, we talked about some of the growth when loans grow. You have to increase reserves. But I think that investors will be keying on what are the changes to some macroeconomic assumptions. We already know that JPMorgan is going to increase their reserves, perhaps a little bit more than had been expected a couple of months ago. Due to both the growth and a little bit of a change in the assumptions, but again, I think that the biggest takeaway for the restrooms are what investors should focus on is the fact that these banks are extremely well positioned to take on any increase in provisions. The last two cycles we had were crises. We had the pandemic. We had the global financial crisis. We think that this is going to be a much more manageable sort of plain vanilla recession, if you will, perhaps, closer to the 2000s. A real quick Allison. Do I even bother if I want to get exposure to the investment banking business? Do I even bother with the European banks or did I just stick with the U.S. investment banks? So this will be an interesting year, although we've said this perhaps for the last several years, right? Because for the U.S. banks, really the advantage has been this virtual cycle since the global financial crisis. So they sort of got their problems behind them earlier. The economy, they had the benefit of a healthier economy. So that helped the revenue, which allowed them to invest more. And technology, as you know, has been sort of the key battleground for these companies. So they've been able to invest in technology and they've been reaping the rewards of those investments. And so it's been sort of a virtuous cycle. And Europe, I think, what's interesting is you do finally have now finally some lift in rates, so you could get some help. Obviously, there's still some economic concerns there. And so we'll see what lies ahead. We've had some other European competitors getting a bit stronger. So we think that the competitive landscape for the global investment banks will continue to be entrusted. Very diplomatic way of time. It's going to say, all right, Alison, thanks a lot. Boomerang intelligence senior banks analyst Alison Williams. All right, let's turn now to the FinTech space as names like Visa and Mastercard are expected to lead their peers this year thanks to revenue resilience and strong balance sheets Bloomberg intelligence, senior financial analyst, dick chaga joins us now to discuss so diction when I think about FinTech, it's obviously as a name implies confluence of financial services and technology. It's a relatively new part of the financial services space at least for me, how should investors view this space should we focus on the big names

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