Cleveland, Linda, Fifty Percent discussed on Dunc'd On Basketball Podcast
And I think if I have to pick a single number, I'm going to pick thirty two and reason for that for me is I'm not sure on their defense. Like I said, that's the defining question. These certainly have personnel there, but and maybe they try maybe that's really the the issue and they can get into it. But I saw a lot of miscommunication and not getting back in transitioned all that insists that could be there's always the kind of the physical, the mental and the emotional defenses takes all kinds. An I completely understand like your your estimate is totally fair to me. I'm just taking the same set of input in my my guest. This is kind of, I guess you could make the history argument here and a lot of the other part of why. Swings for me a little bit more to the negative side is because of the the sheer just amount of work that this team has done over the last few years going to the finals for years in a row is tough, and they have had a lot of turnover. I mean, they turned up basically half the team last year, which is remarkable. But what I feel is always a concern with these kinds of teams is that they're playing for pride early on, and if it goes well, then there's an easy path as like, that's what the logic of this getting to be like a forty, four win team or something that ranges like it goes well, and they're like, hey, look, we can do this if sometimes if it goes badly early, a lot of these guys, you're just sitting there going well, I'm you're playing for your next contract, but maybe you're not fully engaging something like that. And I, you talked about history. I kind of go in that direction that playing for a playoff berth and playing for even though the regular season was super weird. The last couple of years playing for the possibility of a championship are two very different things. So I could see them going in that direction. And the one other important thing that we have to talk about this. This is only as important as the front office and ownership feels that it is is the idea of the Cleveland houses protected pick, and so it's protected, Cleveland, retains it if it's one through ten. Otherwise it goes tweet, Linda. And so with the new lottery forum, I think this is what we're really talking about is, are they in the bottom eight or so because the odds are just you can fall back. They've the was it all. And so I don't know, you know, far better than I if they're close like if they're in that conversation. So we're in the not in the worst case round MIR, but we're below well below fifty percent. I think there's a chance that they just lean into that little bit and you know, maybe it's losing a couple of extra games like maybe maybe on my theory of this, there are thirty five thirty six wind team. But when a team has is in that range, usually they fall off. 'cause that's just the way this works in west that's enough to make it into the playoffs. So that's a long winded way of saying, this is a a tough team to project, and I'm really intrigued by how it's going to go. And I'm totally open to the prospect that I'm just to well on them because I understand. Exactly what you said, but it's kind of two sides of the coin. And so we would just have to see which way goes well. And I think if you consider if you consider like where you see them and then also the idea what you're exactly correct, which is when you when you stink and you have a chance to to go for the lottery, the teams tend to do it. And so then like when when we were talking earlier about questions, I think it comes back to that. What is too bad? Like what is bad enough to do that. Because of the lottery reforms, you're correct. I think you have to be significantly bad like you've got to be one eight..