Arizona, Wilson School District, Arizona Department Health Services discussed on Mike Broomhead
Talk about the word outbreak two or more cases in a school. Can you explain the definition? And then I will follow up question about that word because it's scaring a lot of people. What exactly constitutes an outbreak? So in epidemiology and outbreak is anything over an anticipated number of cases When we're talking about a school, the definition is two or more cases that are not household contacts or have another source of contact outside of the school. That's when we would start working with the school and they should report to public health is that number but saying the word outbreak it made me think of much many more cases. And there are some schools that are closing down in panel county. They're closing them down for two or three cases in a school. Do you think that's a little bit of overkill? So our local health departments are the boots on the ground. They are the experts in public health in their communities, and they work with each school on a case by case basis, So it's going to depend on what they're seeing on the ground and what the risk factors are. So if there's a school that has a large number of high risk Children, they may recommend that that school go to a virtual learning during Thie. During the incubation period, where other schools they may be ableto facilitate remaining open for in person education and working with the contacts. The Wilson School District in Phoenix has closed because of outbreak Now, I didn't see in the story. How many cases that is If you were asked for the advice. What would that number look like for you is are a number of cases are, as you say, the other extenuating circumstances to consider. I think it's it really is a case by case basis. You have tto look at those extenuating circumstances. So if you would have multiple classrooms in a school that had cases That might signal that you've got on going transmission if you have two cases in the same classroom, But they've done a great job, physical distancing and they've worn masks. That may just be a recommendation for those students to stay home for their 10 days until they get better and for close contacts and friends who have spent time very close to those students. Stay home for a 14 Day quarantine period and watching what the schools have done that have opened. I was very impressed with the way they were handling them. We'll issue was a great example of being able to manage cases and stay open. Is that how you feel from what you've seen so far? Yes. So far are schools have done a great job as they've been returning to in person school. We anticipated that there would be cases when we brought everyone back. But they have great mitigation strategies. They are requiring the use of masks and the parents are being very cooperative and notifying the schools of cases. A story in the media this morning talking about a surge. We're in the middle of our third surge of covert 19. Do you feel the way you were anticipating? More cases began? Open things up. Is this what you anticipated or higher numbers than you anticipated? So we are seeing an increase over the last few weeks in both the number of cases and the percent positivity. We remain concern and on high alert, But we have been since January when we got our first case. We do believe that we will see an increase and continued increase in cases. And so we encourage everybody Now is not the time to stop wearing masks and, you know, resuming normal activities. We need everybody to continue doing a great job at mask wearing, staying, physically distanced and staying home when you're sick. Arizona Department health Services director of Dr Characteristics, joining us when you when you as you see these numbers go up. Is you saying you're being diligent, But at what point is there a place you can tell us? Is there a level that you can tell us where you would begin to consider taking a step backward either in the schools or businesses? So we continue to watch the data and, you know, are updating our benchmark metrics on a weekly basis this week. All of our county's going to remain either in a moderate or minimal category. But what we would be looking for is all three metrics to return to a substantial category. So over 100 per 100,000 cases over 10% positivity and a significant increase in covert like illness in our hospitals, we would work. Those local communities to identify what the extenuating circumstances were so that we could make recommendations to keep those Arizona and safe when we know those two data dashboards with one for schools, and one for business is going to be released here in about 20 minutes or so. Did you see anything in any of those, either of those dashboards that concerned you specifically So we are seeing in specific counties. We are seeing increases in rates and increases in percent positivity. What seems to be different, according to my epidemiologist here is that instead of it just being the general statewide increase, like we saw in May and June and July. We're seeing it in specific pockets. And so we are working very closely with those jurisdictions to implement recommendations and help them work some through some of the specific circumstances. All right. Scale of 1 to 10. How concerned are you about seeing another spike based on the numbers you're seeing right now? Well, I think one of the concerning things that as I look at our data, we are seeing an increase. We know that the major demographic is our 18 like 2 30 year old with the increase that's going on around the nation and people coming home like from colleges to Arizona. Thanksgiving has me highly concerned that about 10 to 14 days after Thanksgiving, we will see a significant increase. So again, we're we're reminding Arizonans. Thanksgiving may look a little different this year than it has in the past in crunching the numbers, which they make fun of me because I do this every day. I look at the numbers of your under 55 years old. The risk of being killed or being fatal from covert 19 is extremely low, and then it seems to jump very significantly over 65. Is there any research on why that is and is that you believe that's going to stay consistent? So that's what the data seems to be showing is that those that are over the age of 55? Especially if you're over the age of 65. You were at a much higher risk of dying from Cove it if you come down with it, we also know that patients should get hospitalized have a higher risk. So what we want to encourage people is even if you aren't at high risk, you probably have someone you love who is and so please remember to wear that mask, especially if you don't live with them, and you are visiting them because what we're seeing is transmission in small household gatherings where people feel that they're with close friends or with their family members, and it is safe to remove the masks. It's safe to get close to them. And we're finding out that that is causing increased transmission. Let's talk about the mask mandates. We know that Scottsdale's rescinded. There's we now know the Kingman is rescinding. There's how do you feel about cities? Removing that mask mandate. We would like everyone to wear a mask in Arizona. Luckily, the majority of our state is still covered in a mask mandate, Maricopa County and Pema counties. Both do have required mouth mandates but part of the mitigation strategies for those businesses that have opened or restaurants. Regardless of whether there's a mask mandate. You need to wear a mask. If you are in a gym in a restaurant in a bar in a movie theater, and that's just a requirement by the department on those industries. Dr Christa's always We appreciate the wealth of information, and we're looking forward to the updated dash boards in a few minutes. Yes, and our school dash Our school dashboard will look different today. So take a look at it when it goes live. Absolutely thanks, Doctor. Thank you. That is Dr characterised on the Department of Health Services. He is concerned, especially about Thanksgiving. No word on of anything going backwards. But she says she is seeing numbers climate a big concern of what might happen at Thanksgiving coming up in a moment. Of course, it's Gaydos and the big Q poll question of the day and then we will talk about the last presidential debate.