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Beat reminding you spread liberty with a smile. This is Josh Borough and welcome to left right and center you're civilized yet provocative antidote to the self-contained opinion bubbles that dominate political debate. It is the first week of November and this week. The New York Times made a lot of liberals nervous new high-quality battleground state polls from the Times paint a picture of a close twenty twenty election sending a different message from the national polling. We see more often with big leads for Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders part of the message. Here is that trump electoral college advantage appears to be widening vet is whatever trends are happening in the suburbs continued a weakened Republicans with part of their traditional base. Then it'd be taken away votes in Texas or even more votes in California but in Pennsylvania Michigan Again Wisconsin. Those effects aren't as important things remain close and you could conceivably see Donald trump be reelected while losing the popular vote by an even wider margin than any lost last time and that has a lot of Democrats wondering what they need to do in this primer to prevent that from happening. We're GonNa talk about that later today. And how you should think about poll so far in advance collection but now let's bring our left right and center panel as always. I'm your center. I'm joined by rich lowry editor of National Review on the right on the leftist Bill Rahman of Demos we also have a special guest today Oriole Edwards Lee whose reporter and pulling editor at Huffpost. Hello everyone hey josh hi everybody so. There were elections on Tuesday day. In a few states. We can talk about two thousand nineteen elections before we turn to twenty twenty And Republicans did hold onto the governorship in Mississippi By about six points but in Kentucky Republican Lucan incumbent Matt Bevin lost despite a last-minute assist from president trump who rallied for him in the state and he Bashir won that Election Kentucky succeeding where other Democrats have failed in two ways. He held onto part of the ancestral democratic base in Appalachian Eastern Kentucky which is otherwise swung hard toward Republicans. Any made inroads in one strongly strongly Republican suburbs of Louisville Cincinnati. The suburbs also delivered for Democrats in Virginia giving the Party control of both chambers of the state legislature and therefore full control of that states government for the first time in decades Sabil. What lessons do you see in these results? as Democrats look to next year so a couple of things jump out I is. This is a pretty important result for the Democrats right. You have a really important shift in Virginia now with the TRIFECTA that's going to change the politics and the policies that commanded that state. And when you compare pair Virginia and Kentucky this move in the suburbs that you're describing really as a strong pattern across the different states there also is a similar move happening in rural counties to in the other direction and I'm sure we'll talk about that in a moment The other thing you know there's a grain of salt rate it's a two thousand nineteen off your election. is hard to extrapolate national no trends. So it's this isn't quite the same as the precursor to two thousand eighteen but it is a strong result for the Democrat rich. When you look at Virginia Democrats felt like we're having in a rough year in Virginia? The black face scandal with the governor and the other black face scandal with the attorney general and rape accusations against the Lieutenant Governor and and some Democrats in the legislature and the governor sticking out of position on abortion that Republicans thought was very extreme and what outrage the median voter. None of that seems to have stopped the steady forward word March of Virginia becoming a blue state. Yes this is marshes right word. It's a trend. That's been going on for a long time. Has To do with demographic changes in the state. Stay becoming better educated doc. Id more suburban more diverse. So the whole divide. We're seeing now between the suburbs and more rural working class voters voters. It's something that's been going on for quite a long time. And trump has just accelerated it and he's His conduct is repellent to a lot of of a former Republicans in the suburbs especially women the question and will address this in a little bit is whether he can do what he didn't. Twenty sixteen. Draw a A A broadly at a radioactive released easy to make radioactive opponent and take off enough of the edge in the in the suburbs to you just barely get over the top again Arielle. Is The national story that simple as you know. Republicans keep doing worse in especially inner suburbs and Democrats keep doing worse in rural areas. And if that is the story is that an even trade between the two parties I mean I think that is in large part what we are seeing across the country entry and you know I think that can obscure that there will always be things happening in a particular race in a particular level. I mean you saw that in Kentucky Hockey where there were certainly considerations that are not national politics. Obviously that's gubernatorial race where it's a little bit of a different story in terms of how much partisanship is going to influence influence people's votes but you are seeing these broader demographic trends of just these areas sorting themselves out more and more. And you know we'll see whether that ends up evening out and whose favourite that is rich. The governors are real notes There were some specific local factors. Matt Bevin was not the best like person including including institutionally in the Republican Party in Kentucky. He tried to defeat Mitch McConnell and a primary a few years ago so after this close result he lost by about five thousand votes. He's basically said he's not concede. He thinks there were regularities. You want free canvas. Maybe he's going to contest the election first of all. What do you like he lost? What do you make of him coming out and saying that right and then also I mean what do you make of the Response Republican Party and Kentucky which has been mostly to sort of ignore him and say well he lost? The five thousand votes is not a lot in the scheme of things. The recount or canvas sincere a scenario huge and the chances overturning that are extremely minimal. Basically impossible so I. I don't like the the the trend we saw stacey. Abrams Georgia as well. You lost please be gracious about it. It's a very tough thing personally as hard to take but go away and don't tell us for years afterwards how you truly the winner. When clearly weren't as I hear Democrats worrying about you know what's is is trump gonNA committee lost if he loses the two thousand twenty election and this I? I've been very worried about that. For reasons. That are playing out on the ground at Kentucky. which is you know you can say? I didn't lose. I didn't lose and that can be irrelevant event. If other people won't go along with it and it looks to me here you know the partly I think you know as rich as noting five thousand votes as a lot. If it was five hundred votes we might see a different situation. But also so it's parallel to trump and that you have an executive who the other institutional elements in the party never really wanted in charge and there's a part of them that I'm sure is just pleased to be done with my bedroom. Yeah I mean I think I think that's a hopeful lesson. I hope you're right back taking the the model of of Kentucky I mean. Look here's the here's the challenge in some ways right that the the decision making factor here is going to be the rest of the institutional right. What the party things right? If the Party doesn't go along with it then it just becomes sort of a slightly embarrassing embarrassing you know. Stance on the part of the losing candidate and it goes away and our democracy proceeds democracy only works if both sides recognize the legitimacy of the results right and so oh I think I think in that sense are right what I worry about is when we talk about the impeachment scenarios there. There is such a strong incentive at the moment for the institutional power because of the Republican Party disarray fall in line with the president. That's where I I would put more concern presence going to do what he's GonNa do. He always has but At what point does the rest of the party decide. You know what the rules are the rules we have. We have other people. We can put forward in an electoral contest. And we don't need to keep following this train. Well let's talk about impeachment I think that's a that's a good time for us. Talk about impeachment Rich there's there's an article in the New York Times This week about an emerging defense that House Republicans are talking about about a as it becomes clearer that there was some sort of quid pro quo here around Ukraine ambassador. Gordon Sunland has changed his mind refreshed his recollection and said. Oh Yeah I did. I did tell the Ukrainians cranium that they would have to make this public statement about investigating the Biden's in order to get the release of the military aid and so Republicans are talking about the possibility of saying essentially that these guys were freelancing dancing that yes somehow a message got to the Ukrainians that there was this quid pro quo that but maybe trump never authorize them to send that message. Maybe he didn't want to want to. After all trump specifically denied to Senator Ron Johnson that he had proposed a quid pro quo and especially in the case of Rudy Giuliani. Maybe he was even acting for his own independent financial interests. He had all these business interests in Ukraine. Maybe he was using his position. Close to the president to push his own agenda. And that's where this quid pro quo idea came from. The president is innocent and I think in that context. It's worth considering a tweet. That Guiliani sent this week. That looks out really like defense of the president. But I'm not sure it is. He says the investigation I conducted concerning 2016 Ukrainian collusion corruption was done solely as a defense attorney to defend my client against false charges unquote. So is it a viable defense of the president to basically throw Rudy Giuliani Elhiani under the bus. And say you know whatever these people did. The president did authorize them to do that. Because it certainly sounds like Giuliani is going to say no. I did this in in my capacity as the president's agents yes I say a couple of things one you know. There's a glimmer of an opening for this defense. Because most of the people we've heard from so far is really almost all the people we've heard from so far had what trump was thinking the second or third hand because they weren't the insiders which is more Bolton Mulvaney Giuliani and it's entirely plausible. That Giuliani an important respect. It's cutting into your exercise time..