U.S., Emma O'brien, Bloomberg discussed on Bloomberg Daybreak Asia


Kong on the other hand is going in the opposite direction with infections reporting out the highest tally in 6 weeks over the weekend 515 new Now it is the largest number of cases since April 23rd and Bloomberg's Emma O'Brien says that number may not be true And you've got to remember that that's probably just the tip of what we're actually seeing in Hong Kong with a lot of people probably not reporting Their infections particularly given the atmosphere has soured a little bit in Hong Kong with concerns about them rolling back home quarantine for people who diagnosed with new variants And those cases by the way most of them uncovered in a cluster at four bars in the city Australia says one of its surveillance planes was cut off by a Chinese fighter jet and international airspace over the South China Sea It says the RAAF P 8 was on routine maritime surveillance when it was interrupted by a J 16 fighter that resulted in a dangerous maneuver which they say caused a safety to their threat to their safety Now Australian defense minister Richard marles says the J 16 fighter had flown very very close side to side That's threatened the safety of both the Australian aircraft and crew Yeah marl says it then accelerated and cut across the nose of the P 8 settling in front at very close range He said at that moment it released a bundle of chaff under which contained small pieces of aluminum some of which were ingested in the engine of the P 8 miles says Australia was operating completely within its rights under international law And we're not going to be deterred by this incident from conducting those activities in the future because it's fundamentally important to Australia's national interest Yeah he says the government has filed a complaint with the Chinese government and this will not deter those missions North Korea has fired 8 short-range ballistic missiles over the weekend pushing it to a record number of launches in a single year North Korean military officials say they came from four different sites including an area very near Pyongyang's main airport and Bloomberg Stephen engel reports the south and U.S. apparently have responded now The South Koreans and the Americans jointly tested their own 8 missile tests this morning ground to ground tactical missiles at about four 45 this morning Monday morning for about ten minutes I assume in retaliation as they were test firing of course but in retaliation for those 8 tests by the North Koreans The Japan by the way are saying the North Korea tests fell into international waters U.S. suffering from more mass shootings over the weekend in Philadelphia popular tourist area police commissioner Danielle outlaw says three dead and more injured there An additional 11 victims were struck by gunfire These victims range in age from 17 to 69 years old Their conditions range from stable to critical The shooter is still at large in Chattanooga earlier 14 people were shot at a bar near a music festival in the U.S. the gun violence archive says more mass shootings this year than number of days U.S. president Joe Biden plans to head to Saudi Arabia just transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg on ABC has heard on Bloomberg says the oil companies are contributing to the problem of gas and oil shortage It's been very striking right now to see these oil companies who have become almost ridiculously profitable And you hear these oil executives on the record talking about how they're not going to increase production He says they have to step up and help at this point Japan's prime minister fumio should have considering attending a summit of leaders from NATO late this month to spur cooperation with the west over Russian invasion of Ukraine And Chinese astronauts have blasted off on 6 month mission to oversee a pivotal period of construction of its space station the final modules for the station are due to be launched in the next few months In San Francisco I'm Ed Baxter this is Bloomberg I'm back to you guys Thanks so much Ed Let's get now to I guess chilo is senior investment strategist Asia Pacific at BNP Paribas asset management on the line for us from Hong Kong I believe Correct me if I'm wrong but we are seeing I think that's what you're based We are seeing stocks open a little lower today because we had that robust U.S. jobs report leaving the door open for the fed to maintain this assertive stance on inflation I guess just what is the big conundrum here in terms of we've already heard these aggressive hikes tabled by the likes of lael brainard and how markets can kind of assess this Well indeed the in the short term I think the market will still be affected by the hawkishness of central banks in the developed markets areas led by the U.S. We are not likely to see inflation peak on two and other months maybe two So I think that the market is trying to price their aim So that's bad for the market bad news for the market But on the other hand there's this new concern about all these rates recently will push the U.S. economy and some other big economies in the recession later this year into next year So that recessionary concerns is also constraining market movements there So these are the bad news And then if you put a two bad news together we've got this so called stagflation which is very bad news for the market And I think at this point the markets are still trying to find its footing in assessing how likely recessions deflation are going to happen in the next few months while inflation is pretty much priced in The base case is that hopefully inflation will peak in the next two months or so and then the hawk is hawkishness of the central banks will come down and then the markets will be able to find its footing But before that happens we are likely to see more volatility with the downward bias in the major stock market Well I think to me the problem with your argument is that sure inflation can peak But the fed's not going to be satisfied with the peak The set that's got to see in fact evidence evidence is what read a master president Cleveland fed said on Thursday the day that low brainard said that would be a hard to see slowing down the pace of rate hikes by September I think that's the problem that he can peek But the fed wants to see it coming down The fed wants to see evidence behind the picking of inflation And that evidence have to come from a weakening or losing momentum in the labor market which is quite tight right now And the economy which is still quite robust So something has to give and this something is likely to be the economy the labor market which we have to soften in the coming months to convince the fact that the rates have delivered the expected impact on taming inflation So that's why as I said in the next two or three one or two months at least we won't see any Changing in policy direction by the fed It's still likely to be very hawkish We are still pricing in 50 basis point high in July and in June and July And the fed communication last week made it very clear that a great high pose in September is over the question And the pace of rates after July is still uncertain So that's the big thing that the market is facing She just very very quickly how ready are assets for the global tightening wave I mean it could be a doomsday scenario for currencies for example I think it's still going to be volatile with the downward bias currency wise we are likely to see the dollar remains strong because of the divergence and policy direction between developed markets led by the U.S. and the developing markets led by China which is an easing cycle So that's pretty much we are going to see in the next month or so All right We'll continue the conversation and talk more about China and Asia in.

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