Tony Dwyer, Tommy, San Francisco discussed on


Did the math you're open you're up from that moment you were up eleven percent for the year it's a double digit tony dwyer and there's a lot of people that don't agree with you what did they get wrong tommy the title of our our monthly pitcher book is called evidence over emotion for reason i think people get very emotional they they try to think it's different this time so for example i it's interesting i you're a study you're better study of the fact that i am but the the san francisco fed just recently did a paper that looked at the yield curve figuring out of a different this time or not so they've looked at quantitative easing they've looked at all the factors that people think it's different emotionally this cycle versus any other cycle you know what they found it's not different this time it's exactly the same as it is so i think what the bears get wrong ultimately they're never wrong when the eucharist vertical it gets crushed it's gonna get crushed as soon as the fed and burke yorker which they do every cycle what they get wrong it's the timing of it well the last couple of months and you've really been beating the table about is that what matters here is not the flatness of the curve it's the inversion and that equities can continue to rally continue to mount up through a flattening curve is that the big point you try to make tony i really wanted to be clear on people like me when we say my opinion is you should ignore ignore us what i go by is what the evidence suggests in history is telling us it's commanding that the market is gonna go higher until it's proven differently which it hasn't over the last sixty years until proven differently until you'll curve and verts credit accelerates even toward the end of the cycle so again i think it's so important that we forget about that work quote unquote nine years into an economic recovery and look at what is the driver of a change in the economic direction always is the fed inverting kirk some banks and let's pick up on this point there was a huge consensus by other banks in two thousand eighteen you santa banks cannot perform well despite the shape of.

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