Bloomberg, Julie Ryan, Bloomberg Radio discussed on Bloomberg Best


I'm Julie Ryan. This is Bloomberg best on Bloomberg radio. I'm head Baxter. And unto these Pellegrini. Denise tech stocks have really been hard hitting this inflation rising interest rate environment. Yeah, that's right. They sure have. And we've seen a wave of layoffs to this past week. Here's how Bloomberg's Ed ludlow describes the mood right now. What I'm hearing from venture capitalists on all levels of the curve from seed through to growth equity stage is now is the time to be disciplined, preserve cash, do not invest with risk and be conservative. And conservative ludlow says in hiring to add. So it's turning into a real mood killer for some tech companies. And one of the most high profile fund companies, it's really been slammed is arc investment. And Bloomberg's Tom McKenzie caught up with Kathy wood, CEO, and CIO, an arc investment management at the web summit in Lisbon. And he asked her about all the losses. Let's listen in. I know you don't need to be reminded of this, but context is important so that 120% outside that you saw for the central fund within arc, of course, between 2020 and 2021, and now of course year to date the flagship fund down about 60%. What are the lessons learned then from you and the team from that kind of drop that we've seen? It started actually in February of 21. We started declining truly disruptive innovation started declining in February of 2021, while the market soared to all time highs in 21. And now the rest of the market is suffering as well. So vaccine, people going back to work, supply shock. The businesses had shut down, wondering if they would ever reopen their doors, right? They shut down at the same time, governments around the world were stimulating aggressively. So we had a supply shock, especially because demand actually was so much stronger than anyone expected. And I would say lessons learned could I have dreamed a technology investor that supply chain issues would have lasted more than two years? No. I never thought that for a second. I thought we would be over that in a year. And certainly couldn't have predicted Russia's invasion of Ukraine. So the question is, is this a 70s style inflation, which is how the markets are treating it right now? And why are strategy has been decimated? And most growth strategies have been hurt very hard. We don't think it is. I think the market's pricing is pricing innovation as though we have a bad inflation problem that's going to take interest rates even higher. We don't think so. We think actually the greater risk and opportunity is deflation. I think we're going to start seeing deflation on a month to month basis. We're already seeing commodity prices come down. They've broken down many of them. That's upstream at the top of the pipeline. At the bottom of the pipeline, around the world, we're seeing a massive inventory overhang as we're heading into the holiday season. How are they clear that? Discounts. So I think cyclically we're going to see deflation. We're already seeing it in the pipeline. Secularly, we will also see deflation. It's we spend all of our research time focused on disruptive innovation. Technologically enabled disruptive innovation that is inherently deflationary. But that's good deflation because as prices for electric vehicles continue to come down, we will see a continued boom in an electric vehicles. It will hurt the internal combustion engine cars. But it will help the innovators. So I think we're going into a deflationary period. Much like much like the late 19 teens. So 1918 World War I ended Spanish flu also hit. So think about that war flu. Very similar dynamic, right? And the other similar dynamic was three major innovation platforms that we're going to transform the world. Telephone electricity and automobile. They were all scaling exponentially. And took us into the roaring 20s. So supply shocks to inflation back then to 15%, but within a year and a half, two years, that inflation started dropping. And it ended down I'm sorry, the reflection was 20%. It ended down deflation 15%. Roaring 20s. I'd like to think that's what we're going into now. And there's a high probability we are. Okay, so that's the deflation call. So you also making the call that growth has bottom now, that this is the opportunity to get going to exposure to growth. That we are seeing the bottom now in terms of the sell off the tech. So it's interesting to watch our strategy as fears about fed tightening and more fed tightening continue on many days when the market's down, our strategies are up. Now, that is what tends to happen. I'm not promising this is where we are, my compliance department would never let that happen. But in the later stages of a bear market, our strategy starts to outperform, even it may just be that we're down less than the market. Some days we're up when the market's down. Why? Because during the later stages of a bear market, the new leadership shows up and starts performing. We're the new leadership. We always are. And many people think, oh, I've got myself covered with the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100. No, look deeply into those indices. We are the new NASDAQ. And most of our stocks are not in those indexes We have an owned the fangs in our flagship for quite some time. That's not the new new anymore. TikTok has come along and destroyed a lot of a lot of models. So yes, I think that we're seeing the early stages of a bottoming process. At the same time, many people are saying, we're going into a recession. Now, we think we've been in a recession. And that the negative numbers will reassert themselves after this positive third quarter. Mostly because of the inventory overhang, and we need to clear that out. I think many forecasters may say, oh, this is going to last forever. This recession through. We think it's just a major inventory correction. And then we'll

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