Seth Walder Seth, Football, Alabama discussed on The Paul Finebaum Show
LT to seventy nine seventy nine seventy. Nine. Welcome back to the program we are. We talked a little bit about yesterday. We're gonna talk more about today. This new college football predictor. So joining us from ESPN is Seth Walder Seth. Thanks for the time. Appreciate you being with us. Happy to be here. Happy to come on and talk about what I can tell your new saver metric. Yeah, I I was introduced to it last week at the seminars as you know. And I I was trying to pay attention as much as I could. I failed. Of course I'm not a good student, so help help all of us better. Understand what this is about. Yeah, sure. So we, you know, we all already have been trying to rate Saint of teams and rate their -ccomplish knit with that the I record. But we wanna do is answer the question. Everyone wants to know who's getting the playoff. And so now for four years of data, we can actually try and do it because we wanna do it to replicate the committee's past behavior not just like. Off of whatever we think. So this is based on what the committee's done in the past, and we can out project every teams chance to make the playoffs today tomorrow every day of football. So, okay, we've got it on our screen. In terms of the analytics, strength schedule the FBI the number of losses conference championships. So let's let's get into the season and tell us what this is going. I mean, I realize we don't know yet how the seasons gonna play all, but how does this work? I guess, is my main question. What we do. We take the entire season and we simulate it ten thousand times that's based on at the i. because we have every chance every game the way every game to work out. Ten thousand times and then based on that and say, well, what was the committee do in this in this nation? Well, they would. They would probably lean towards Alabama here, you know, SEC champs and but maybe they look at Clemson, they won the ACC and that ten thousand times. And that kind of gives you a sense of which teams are going to make the playoffs. You know those things, of course, you don't know. You have to. It's a probabilistic for production in each case, but that's what we're trying to find out. So I mean to me, this is very complicated. Seth, I, I mean to people like you. I know it's not how will this change our viewing of the college football season. I think I hope that it gives us a little bit of clarity on a couple of fronts. One, you know, we're talking about who's gonna the playoff at all times. And maybe let's say, last year when Ohio State news too high a well, why people writing off Ohio State and yeah, they weren't. Position, but maybe that moment we stay. Okay. Maybe they have like a ten percent chance to make the playoff at that point. Maybe it's not zero going into selection day, and people are split on Alabama and Ohio State, and we're saying, you know what? It could go either way, but when probably think that it's Alabama, they don't want the committee's done. So we think that it can help help us trying to figure out what those people in the room. I thinking. Man you, you could. You could make a lot of money trying to figure out what those guys and ladies are thinking. So we we have it on the screen, the teams with the highest chances to reach the CFP Clemson right now is.