Tom John, Bloomberg, Lisa Karen discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


One eight percent and that's a Bloomberg business slash Tom John and Lisa Karen is a stunning number a stunning number I think we were expecting pricing full but stunning nevertheless tomorrow will get initial jobless claims Friday will get a number similar to the eighty page report that we've just seen some negative twenty plus million people for an unemployment rate holds for like a month reports just stunning and eighty pages this breakdown of small businesses as well that just like to shine a light little light onto the breakdown of this as follows a lot of this coming from the service sector as you might imagine as opposed to the good sector but it's really interesting just to understand how really small businesses as having the very small one to nineteen employees which are the kind of small businesses you typically think of shedding three point three six one million jobs Tom and what I think is important for the next couple days to try and work out could see that I don't have a full cuts this how temperate these job losses will pay how quickly some of these businesses will come back and how quickly these jobs will come back to the heart of a child and just focus a quick math at our next guest John would know at Oxford or London school of economics or C. and spoke in Paris jun twenty million divided by a hundred and fifty five million is twelve point nine percent let's round it up to thirteen percent Justin this thirty day period please decide how it Davis said how it Davis joins us now the obvious Chapman how fantastic to have you with us on the program we just spend a moment reflecting on these devastating jobs figures that coming through here in America and a deathly likely to be the same in the United Kingdom as well albeit on a different scale how how you thinking about the recovery and how quickly this like a mock ales well the first thing I have to think about is the the personal tragedies that must live behind these numbers because there must be a lot of fat very worried people out there I think that we desperately need now some sense of direction on the recovery in some European countries notably in Germany well to some extent nine problems we are seeing a bit of direction in the bit of leasing up which gives people some optimism and Mike made that these job losses were temporary but at the moment here I'm afraid we don't have that we've been told is that we may be told something on Sunday about the way in which the recovery will emerge and I think that's increasingly important because the assumption behind a lot of government schemes and a lot of bank lending as being that we face a V. shaped recovery the people will come very quickly up the other side of this canyon but the longer it goes on the much less certain that recovery is Howard when you look at royal bank of Scotland's workforce and you look at the fact that so many people are working remotely and and getting it done are you expecting a smaller work force and one that is less centralized in a big city going forward for your bank we are very busy at the moment we have managed to keep ninety five percent of our brunch is open and our I. T. people particularly those people dealing with small businesses dealing with people getting mortgage interest holidays are very busy so we have said we're not laying people off at this point we're not asking for support from the government now in the longer run if you look and say what are we learning in this crisis about the way in which we can operate you know you have to have but you you'll have to ask yourself some questions about location of people and numbers of people the texture but for the moment you know with the the job unemployment numbers are not coming from us because we have to create with pretty frantic action your charm Howard Davies is a young lad at Oxford you had the courage to study modern history and not something fancy like medieval history of the classics and all the rest of it tell us about our modern history for word about government in our society in particular your take on the United States of America are we actually going to be more government centric are we gonna push back against the ethos of Ronald Reagan I think you probably aw analysts expect over here in the United States and I am on the U. K. but I would have thought that the the knee jerk rhetoric that says you know we need to as little government as we can the jokes about saying you know I'm from the government I'm here to help you that jokes now the deficit that sounds as if that actually serious and I think that will create a sense among the population not those people who had their minds up several centuries ago they went change but will be a lot of people in the middle he said well you know what this government you know do we want to ridicule all these pointy heads within the beltway or are they sometimes use well when the economy really falls into trouble so I do think there will be a change in in rhetoric but of course it will depend on how effectively the government is seeking to have responded and that looks rather different from place to place I think there will be a change in business and how we do business and that's for sure how it I'd love your insight on how the United Kingdom will change in the as the competent with banking now for many people listen to this program the United States retail banking in the UK has changed radically in the last couple of decades you walk into a bank branch now and you see very few people love machines very few people and machines are not doing the day to day transactions and I think a lot of people still depending on people fall in America how does that just excel right that trend in the U. K. and beyond is the something new a new world of banking that we need to consider just in terms of your day to day operations and how do you use people yes that survey showed us that question is yes the crisis has meant that a lot of people have switched to digital banking who who did not wish to do so before now the millennials I've already done that that's not used to them but we had quite a lot of all the customers who found this rather frightening and intimidating and they are now switching because they've had to and they are switching back quite quickly so we are going to see an acceleration of the trend towards remote banking and in due course that will undoubtedly also things quite a bit but I guess also the interesting thing about the competitive dynamic is that we have got quite a loss of new ventures new fintech companies new digital only banks etcetera some of them are well funded I will survive this crisis and come out stronger and some will fall by the wayside so I think we will see and also competitive environment in two ways one it will be more digital but to some of the marginal players I suspect will find it difficult to survive how fantastic a source this morning really appreciate it thanks for joining us how Davis that RBS chairman joining us on the latest with the job situation and the future of banking as well if you can't be on the job situation is a dial one the future it is all about the future now the recovery the re opening of how quickly we can heal a damaged labor market right now your equity futures rollover just attach positive twelve point to the S. and P. five hundred up four tenths of one percent a couple days of gains on the S. and P. we could add to that the opening ballot yields higher by two basis.

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