Kevin, Austin, Google discussed on KLBJ Programming
The real estate's own. Don't forget to Listen to the whole show. If you wanna listen to some of our other shows, you can go to Google podcasts or iTunes type of John McClellan, Kevin bound that's bound light down or the real state zone or pot. Yes, will pop up and you can download it onto your phone. Listen to you while you're hanging out of working out that is on iTunes are Google podcast. It's the real estate zone. And Kevin, I think in the next break, I'm gonna pull up maybe a couple of shows from April. Because it was. It's amazing how market could turn on and turn off. And that's one of the things we talked about March and April. Is that out? You know, at the beginning of 2000 and 20 in January on, I believe you attended a couple of my obligations of economic forecasts around town and everybody that the market was going phenomenal. Everybody was asking. This is obviously a prick of it. Which on what could slow this down? What could slows down? I go well, we start losing jobs here. Interest rates creep up more than they already are. Or there's I've been, and I pulled up my power points. Look, and I actually mentioned Cove it in the power point from a change, right brilliant of January 1 or if this covert thing that is in China turns out to be more than what we think it is. You know, there's a pandemic that could slow the market down, too. And then lo and behold, obviously it happened and we were scratching our heads and say, OK, this is this is how a market turns off and then turns on and if you think back in all the different cycles we've been through Kevin, it really is true that it's not. It's not a slow death with the market. It's a turning point. Something happens that turns it on a dime. And so you know, the question is, How long can the market continue here in the Austin area to be successful to continue to be healthy, although I don't think it's very healthy right now, because it's just too busy. Too much demand on Ben, what would be that thing outside of a pandemic that we're already dealing with right now? Or maybe it's something you know associated with that that would turns the market on a dime. And let's be very clear here. We're talking about the Austin market. Or let's just called the Texas market because there's other markets across the country that are not doing well. So there are before we went on the radio. I love to share these anecdotal stories with you and I shared one about another house that's under contract for 30% more than More than list price that I think it's going to be a really interesting one to watch because we want to see what the neighbors all on that street do when they realized what their houses are worth. And you do have to wonder like okay in a capitalistic system where prices air fluid right, these sellers can decide the list for whatever they want A list. Um Is that enough? There's got to be. What's your price? Kevin? Some price, right. There's a number where they say You know what that Z pretty nice to have a surprise, 300,000. I couldn't think I could live in getting very comfortable for this. Or I could go traveling Europe for six months and think about it. Think about what I'm gonna do. When I get back. We're gonna rent, you know, go rent apartment downtown and do the downtown like everyone has a price given. It's kind of crazy, right? Theoretically. Well, I mean, that is kind of the deal, right? When? When will we get house is flooding back into the market for to increase our inventory, And I guess we're gonna have to hit that magic number. But everybody has a different number two on def you if we've been talking about North West Hills There's a lot of people over north West Hills that have probably owned their homes from the seventies, eighties and nineties. Right? They have a tremendous amount of equity. Now. There may be people have only lived there for five or six years to you also have a determined They also have a Yeah, but but not maybe they're met. Their magic number is probably gonna be a little bit higher, right? I would think, right? I mean what? Well, let me ask questions. 20 will go back. Let's go back. Where? 24 36 months. What do you think The average price for square foot in north West Hills was 24 36 months ago. So there's there's a range of whether this is updated House or not. Let's Yeah, let's Presuppose updated and call it, uh You're 50. Okay? Where we had them. Uh, that one is north of 500. That's doubling and three years Yeah. So your rule of nines. Does it work the role of night? No, that doesn't work is more than like you said. Is it sustainable or not? That's Z. Got a double again in three years. I don't believe so. Would you have said three years ago that this market will double in price in three years? 33% average per year. You know just that again. Not every house is gonna be like that. Yeah, that's using a data point that closes next month. So that's that's what people will be talking about two months from now, But we're so instead of Kevin and you tell me that everything that when it did say I'm a lesson soldiers shows, so that's something that's happened in the past. And if you're trying to make determinations on property values in Austin, Texas, right now to look at a closing that happened 30 45 days ago when the contract was put in place in the price was set. Is looking backwards in time and is not a good judge of what the future value is. Absolutely so. How do you look to the feet? What What is your crystal? But you've asked me this question for years when it comes interest rates. What is your crystal ball say? So you know, we share the stats on the radio show. We like to say. Let's weigh this shit talk about like a kind of a running speedometer about where were you where we are in the market. Today's, uh, today speedometer. Remember, this is the whole lost in MLS, which is about 12 different counties. Clinton Bass drop Caldwell County, You know, Williamson, Hayes. Travis. Burn it. You know a lot of lot of different counties around here. It's single family homes. Only. So this isn't just author that big Big Three counties. This is all of them. Yes. So last week.