China, United States, Peter Thiel discussed on Venture Stories

Venture Stories


From that is that incarceration reservation <hes> has more costs and fewer benefits than than we thought one thing you've you've explored a lot is is innovation the dynamism and I'm curious if you accept sort of the Peter thiel framing of of the problem which is that <hes> growth has stalled since nineteen eighteen seventy three for for a number of different reasons and you'd want <unk> orthotics farming as go into any room and tell me why what's different than it besides cellphones bounced than than that same room it in nineteen seventy-three you find that accurate that digressing installed and if so what we do about it yeah yeah. I mean that is the consensus view in economics that there was a big productivity decline in the productivity growth rate beginning around nineteen seventy-three <hes> so that's the consensus view what to do about it is really difficult because I don't think anyone knows for sure one way of thinking about touted as maybe what's going on is just that in the sort of nineteen hundred or nineteen forty post. World War Two era to sort of ninety seventy three. We just got lucky you know we had a bunch of flow years because of the Great Depression and World War Two but World War Two mammy stimulated some investment in our indeed and then those ideas television radio jet aircraft those ideas Kinda carried us <hes> with high productivity activity for the next thirty years and maybe that was just kind of a random you know a a random fact of the way technology <hes> operates now. We're in the computer era. Era doesn't seem to have been enough to give us a big growth spurt like we had you know forty five seventy three <hes> maybe biological the genetic engineering. Maybe that'll do it. I'm not sure so on this view which is sort of the Tyler Cowen view. It's not so much about policy. It's about kind of deeper <hes> effects of technology which we really don't understand like why does technology grow sometimes in some field and not in other fields in a white while y you breakthroughs happen when they do on this view. It's actually quite pessimistic because even in fields which are improving you know computers being the obvious one. It seems like we're requiring more and more Labor to do that so you have. Moore's law which perhaps have begun to trail off but even if Moore's Moore's law has not begun to trail off the number of resources the researchers which we require which we have required to keep Moore's law going has has gone up and up and up and up so it seems like we're having to invest more resources just to keep growth going at the same rate. <hes> the same thing is true about <hes> new drugs <hes> you know. I've been a big critic of the F._D._A. And I continue to be a critic of the F._D._a. by also think overlying the the slowdown in new drug approvals is that it's just we got a lot of low hanging fruit early on and it seems that God has become more difficult. You need more resources to produce more new drugs. What are the implications for for somebody's trans particularly as it relates to <hes> <hes> to to Labor an economic growth so ultimately the only way that you could increase wages by increasing average productivity and really the only way you can increase average productivity in the long run. I mean you can work harder for a little while right but there's only twenty four hours a day so really the only way so you can increase average wages in the long run is to increase average productivity and you know that's gotta come for us. That is the economies which which are at the cutting edge <hes> which are the logical frontier. The only way we're able to do that is to push the frontier further out you know. China is still got a lot out of catch up. You know a lot of poor countries can grow very quickly because the are adopting the scientific advances <hes> from more developed economies. They're just adopting opting it but if you've got to invent it takes longer to invent than to adopt now. Let me say something which is a more positive <hes> and that is that is to do with China and India and in the developing economies as the come closer and closer to the frontier rather than adopting the have to invent on their own and the great eight thing about ideas is that they are made to spread around the world so it really doesn't matter whether an American invents a cure for cancer or a Chinese as researcher in China and Magic Cure for cancer. We all get a cure for cancer so if you look on a worldwide level the number of researchers per capita <hes> is increasing dramatically as China and India become rich and this is one reason why I worry about you know the trade war that's going on with China and you know foreign policy and things like that because we have much much more to gain from a rich China and from a rich India India than we do from a poor China and a poor <hes> India in the fundamental reason. Is that the bigger markets. Are you know the greater or the incentive to invest in research and development and that benefits everyone you know if I think about read a lot of your work the issues that you care a lot about as relates to innovation grow. It's it's it's open borders immigration. It's it's it's free trade. It's it's more global world in the trump era. Really some of those ideas have had become your strongly questioned or by is significant it a population we serve. You have a globalism nationalism <hes> divide as that's happened. Have you soften your views there. Do you feel like you're you're. We are the the right side of history and just needs to convince everybody else or is it. More complicated hated than initially thought. Maybe a decade ago. No I haven't softened my views. I may have become more depressed because you you know as I was growing up. <hes> you know I was growing up in in the nineteen seventies and just as in my teenage years as I was adopting these free market good ideas the world seemed to be moving in my direction right so you had the election of Reagan and Thatcher and Maruti and in Canada and you know putting aside ride out good or bad the or whatever it seemed to be moving you know sorta pro free market kind of direction and then later on where the fall of the Berlin walls one of the greatest events of my life to see the collapse of communism which people have thought would be around forever and then after the collapse of communism a fall of the Berlin Wall. We have the opening up of China China again. Just an incredible event in my life and the amazing thing is is that everything which we liberal free market economists said would would happen actually did happen is that the world did become much richer <hes> add much more peaceful and <hes> billions of people were lifted out of poverty and the United States continues to be you know an incredibly rich and vibrant and wonderful place now of course as you mentioned there has been a backlash whether that backlash is impermanent had the election gone towards Hillary Clinton. You know which could have happened. <hes> you know with the flip of a coin right. <hes> was pretty eighty close <hes> and then would we would. We still can be thinking this <hes>. I'm not sure so I think the backlash though it definitely exists in it's not only in the United States. I'm still help hopeful that it doesn't represent something a permanent but is reinvigorating. Perhaps some of these ideas and hopefully we we. We don't have the great forgetting but we're stimulated to push back ourselves. Do you believe that there's some sort of right side of history. Not necessarily you know it could be either either morally and or <hes> just GonNa win and that's you know <hes> liberalism basically <unk> take shape both economically eh and get democracy. Yeah I mean I mean. It's obviously it's a hard question which person even living living a normal life span of ninety years right. <hes> you know knock on wood. I hope I make of that long. It's going to be very difficult <hes> to tell right so and your bias by the portion of history that you do see right so I definitely think it could be the case we could have much worse events in the future. <hes> I think a nuclear war a nuclear exchange as possible and the world could close down <hes> there could be a biological the creation biological logical weapons and that could cause people to close up shut the warriors and so forth so all of these things. I think are possible <hes> on the other hand <hes>. It's very hard to see US returning to slavery for example <hes> I think it's just not economically efficient. Maybe that's the reason why but it just also seems things that there's no moral justification forward. Even though it lasted for thousands and thousands of years it was considered completely normal so I do think we have made some some moral progress. I think <hes> you know the rights of women I think again that there has been moral progress. Darren's going to be very hard to reverse on that score four but on some of these other scores we haven't made as much depresses we would like certainly I'm not expecting open borders anytime soon <hes> even even though you know people claims you know the Democrats are in favor of open borders which of course from my perspective is crazy. <hes> nobody <hes> except a few crazy libertarian libertarian types like myself is favorable open borders and why aren't they favor overboard as well. I think there's a deep bias in in our brains to be fearful of strangers <hes> this goes back to the evolutionary stable equilibrium on the African Savannah or whatever and you we grew up in in tribes and I think that battalion part of our brain is still a very natural for us to revert to that on first instance. Now what has happened is is that slowly we have increased the more our moral circles. We've expanded beyond the tribe you know to the city to the city state and then and in fact to the nation nations are actually pretty big in it's pretty it's kind of amazing that we think of our fellow. Americans that's kind of unprecedented that we could think think about three hundred million people as being art of a a coherent group that we share some <hes> moral values that we are willing to recognize is one another as moral human beings even the nation state level so I do think it's quite possible that you know we increase our moral circles <hes> even further to the entire world but we're certainly not there yet. I WANNA get deeper into immigration. I let me let me step back and ask something about growth either. Their growth is always physical says along the lines of growth is always good except when it's a tumor and I'm curious. It was ages sort of the argument. I think proposing Jeffrey Free Westbrook scale that long-term economic growth or long term sustainable economic growth is somewhat of an oxymoron in that. It's it's not sustainable. Long term that th there will be limits eventually. Would you say to that argument. How long has eventually <hes> you know. What are we talking about fifty fifty years one hundred years thousand years <hes> nobody ever you know that this argument just seems ridiculous to me. <hes> if you don't specifies on timeframe I suppose there's going to be the heat death of the universe at some point so yes <hes> there will be <hes> an end to growth but I don't see any in the long run I don't..

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