AFC, Dana Jones, Ravens discussed on The Bill Simmons Podcast


Out who can start three. Know who can start foreign because sometimes when you start well during a season you get so much momentum and confidence from that in the nfl is so flimsy as it is right. The roster's changed so much that you just got a little momentum and a little confidence it could flip first of all they play the. Nfc's this year which is great for them but their first three weeks at the giants dana jones at the jaguars who you know went from. Oh maybe they could steal the afc south to wow. That team sucks. They can't block and then their home for the jets week. Three and then week four ravens if the ravens you know are are potentially not nearly as good as we thought but i think they could go three no coming out of the gate and sharp by all your research and all your instincts with this stuff. How important. I sound like a sideline reporter. How important is a good early. Start but i really do feel like it is important. If we're trying to figure out these these sleepers if they start three you know. Would that change your thinking here. Well yeah it would it. Would i already like them. And so i've already bet their win. Total over who tom. I think this is a team. I did not bet them to make the playoffs. Whoever because the afc is loaded. And i think there's a chance nine ten wins. They don't make the playoffs but so that way. That's plus one fifty five. If i told you start three you know. Would you bet them to make the playoffs While they're favored in going to be favored in these games. So i don't necessarily think that changes my mindset at that point in time that they'll make the playoffs i we need them to win at least two these games. Three of them is what i'm hoping for. But that's not gonna make me think that they automatically you're gonna make it to the playoffs. Here's two things that you Two points to tag onto what you said. You don't necessarily love their running backs you know what's really weird about what they did. This preseason the last two games they did not play giovanni williams at all the draft. Pick the running back. They got pick number thirty five overall. They apparently absolutely love devante williams. And might be carving out a pretty nice role for him. Him exceeding his rushing yards is a nice profit that i think hold some water. The other thing the other thing that has been jim j. house down the other thing that's interesting is i mentioned you know how teddy is now going to face the number one easiest schedule of pass defenses. You know last year this team and you just mentioned it. Bill which is why i brought it to my mind. They played the number one. Most difficult schedule pass offense as last year this year vic fangio defense plays the number twenty five most difficult schedule of pass offensive mentioned the nfc east. They also get the afc north if we think ben is not what he is ben. You've also got baker. We don't know yet about joe borough and lamar there and then the non division games that they've got they've got the jets. The jags in the lions. We're talking about a ton of teams that drafted inside the top ten. This broncos team is going to be going up against the season. A lot of these teams have new quarterbacks this year some inexperienced quarterbacks this year when you talk about the jets jags and the lions with jared goff there now i just think there there will be opportunities for this defense to really make teddy not have to do too much and teddy you. You mentioned hamlet down the field. I don't know how much of that we're going to see. I think teddy is like more of a ball control efficient quarterback. Hopefully you don't turn the ball over too much. Don't get your offense off schedule. We don't necessarily need these huge big plays. We just need you to get hammers for that. He's good for the shorts. Yes i agree. I agree what happens in week. Eighteen for denver. To if we're again that's exactly the this is the other reason. Why like them is. There is a better than zero. A non zero chance that they will be playing the kansas city chiefs week. Eighteen where kennedy has zero to earn without win. Kansas city is not playing all of their starters. The last game of the season. They're going to go into the postseason. They might want to rest there guys for a couple of weeks if they've already earned that by so you're talking about a couple of team you're talking about that game where you might just be able to walk get a cakewalk. As long as you don't fuck it up a little bit and then look at weeks fourteen. Fifteen and i'm i don't know even sixteen potentially you've got the lions the bengals and For a and the raiders. Those three teams might be vying for the number one overall. Pick or draft position. By the time we're talking about week fourteen in week fifteen etc so I definitely think that there's upside in playing those teams so late in the season where they're focused might be elsewhere. House what would you. What odds would. I have to give you to bet on. Jon gruden when we get to that week. Sixteen raiders broncos game. Being in serious trouble at the raiders. Ooh what say does jon gruden make it to week sixteen. I'll give you twelve to one. would you take it. Oh yeah. I would definitely take that kidding me. You take eight to one. Yes i would definitely take that. Yes really would you take six to one now. We're starting a long shot but not too long shot. Yes exactly right yeah. Yeah pick 'cause. I ten years almost sharp. I think the raiders are going to be bad. They just haven't he's just not good at being. Gm unfortunately or the player picker..

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