Iowa, Michigan, Fanduel discussed on Bet The Board

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Odds and some of the biggest games and whether it's college football, college, basketball, the National Football League or any other sports that you want to wager on. FanDuel has one of the most extensive sports betting menus of anybody out there in the space. You describe them so eloquently at the start of the show Payne as burnt toast. That, of course, being the Iowa hawkeyes, who are installed as a ten and a half point underdog at FanDuel, as they'll go to Indianapolis to take on the Michigan wolverines total on the game 43 and a half Michigan first ever appearance in the Big Ten championship last outright conference title came back in 2003. Iowa makes their first appearance since 2015. A game they lost 1613 to Michigan state, the last outright title for the hawkeye's back in 1985. Wisconsin and Ohio State have accounted for 7 of the 11 of the last 11 conference championships. So we'll get a little bit of fresh blood here. And Iowa to get to this point in the most Iowa win, maybe if their entire season, they race a 21 6 deficit against Nebraska late in the third quarter that included a block punt, a safety chip shot field goals and Wisconsin crumbled under the pressure against Minnesota. But if I was going to be successful in this game against Michigan pain, is it more about Spencer petras and the offense showing a little bit of a pulse for the first time all year or about Iowa locking in in the trenches and leaning in on that very talented defense that held seemingly every opponent since the beginning of 2018 to 28 points or less. Yeah, I think this is sorry getting distracted here my Internet is going in and out in the Don best screens flickering here, but this is one of the tougher games for me because two things are pulling in opposite directions. And by the price, our numbers say this game is short. We make Michigan -13. And relative to public perception, I think everyone knows I'm not as high in Michigan's defense, even after last week. And yet we get to 13. Iowa is offense against Michigan's defense is the largest mismatch metrically of the entire week. There's quarterback issues for Iowa. The weapons outside for Iowa do not scare anybody. All week, I always talked about being a run first team and getting back to basics because that's who they are, and that's how they want to operate and that's how they've always recruited and they want to be a run first team. I just don't understand how that's the philosophy. I understand the quarterback situations and mess. But I was a 120th in the line yards. They're offensive line allows 23% of runs to be stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage. That's a 120th in the country. Only 44% of the time I was online is credited with creating at least four yards of space for its running back. That's outside the top 100. So basically Iowa wants to double down on something they're not good at. And it's the reason the offense stinks. Now, Spencer petris was struggling and then had a little bit of an injury and got benched and then incomes Alex Padilla and he's been even worse than petris. And so now we have Spencer Peter starting again. If Iowa can't run, then we're basically putting it on Spencer Peters again. And Iowa was outside the top 90 in both early down EPA and the ability to bypass third down on first and second down. So I was going to be in third and medium plus situations. And that basically puts 8 in Hutchinson. And David a jabo in position to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback. And I was starting tackles have graded out bad and horrific in past blocking this season. When you just kind of look at this team overall, Iowa has lived off turnovers and field position. I was defense as damn good, right? And that's kind of how they've made their hay as a team this season. But Michigan doesn't turn it over in Michigan has the second most efficient special teams units. So the luck stuff might not actually be a thing here. And I know being contrarian and thinking outside the box kind of lends itself to value and certainly Michigan's not going to play at the level we saw them last week. That's impossible to do. When everyone says you played your best game of the year, that's your best game of the year for a reason. First game in 9 years. Right. And so the problem is I haven't been high in Iowa at any point in the season. Because the season started, or whether it was when they were luck boxing and turning teams over on their way to the 6 O start. You think about this from the Penn State game onwards. Only reason you beat Penn stays because Sean Clifford got injured. You were down 14. One Clifford was in the game. Then he leaves in you barely battle back to win. Finally, Iowa gets curb stomped the next week at home by perdue, lose by three scores as a double digit home favorite perdue is a net positive 0.198 EPA per play. Wisconsin hammers you by three scores. Iowa had a 0% success rate in the first quarter and followed that up with a whopping 8% success rate in the second quarter. Then Iowa hits the road for northwestern. Iowa was a double digit favorite, one so one by 5, despite being a net negative 2% success rate against a pat Fitzgerald team that we have power rated just inside the top 90..

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