U. S. discussed on Balance of Power


What we expected U. S. jobless claims numbers out this morning to be bad but they set a new record high coming in five times higher than the last record well how bad can it get after that welcome to you Linda should have a she's Bloomberg U. S. economist so then how bad were these numbers really yes hi good afternoon David sold the unprecedented deaths and the ease of the meltdown in the legal market highlight so how are the courts and the risk of the risks to the economy are still being very a very high so the what the difference from the previous records that you mention is that the economy basically ran into a brick wall I'm properly so it's a sudden stop and it's not something like what we saw in the previous recession so when jobless claims and you know legal swore multiplying over time so this sign is just stopped abruptly this is an economist how do you even start to parse this because we have never seen this before I don't believe you says is rented a brick wall it was a self declared brick wall I heard somebody say J. saves the first recession ever that was declared by decree for good and sufficient reason to try to protect people from this virus but is there any precedent you look at the figure out where we are where we're going we can look at the numbers and try to estimate the deaths so far the crisis in terms of economic growth in terms of how it will impact the legal market so for example we previously estimated the jobless rate would ever reach six point five percent in the second quarter which would correspond to roughly five million person increase in the level of unemployment but even initial claims that continues to run in the vicinity of three million for several more weeks that would definitely mean a much higher unemployment rate so many the hardest part is to try to estimate how long it will last because it is just that short period of quiet relatively short well we can only talk about relatively short at this point that will mark R. Christie is in an employment rate and we'll just quickly yet back to relatively normal economic growth but even this perceived and just for several more months then we're gonna talk about an unprecedented increase in the unemployment rate in the blow to the economy well as the cavalry on its way and that is to say in the form of two or two point two trillion dollars in that they say they're gonna get a lot of out right away from the federal government sure well the Senate passed the two trillion plus the package but it needs to be rectified by the house first of all and then you know the direct help to the economy the discretionary stimulus is probably closer to one trillion which is still a large amount but this will help people to kind of like cold some income gaps in the interim it's not gonna jump starting the economy so in order to jump start the economy you really need more so while this sounds like a lot of money and really he he would be expected that you know Bolton GDP growth it is quite substantial you know it's not going to stimulate the economy and it will not help in the recovery in the few seconds left about six trillion dollars because as I understand it the deal they've done with the treasury to put up some money allows the fed to come in with percent perhaps another four trillion well in two sentences I would say that the the the price that I will continue to get the largest of the longer we wait that seems to have heard somebody say just pick a number and then double it whatever it is okay thank you so much to bloomers you initially had a she covers U. S. economics for she's a terrific economists and now we have a second R. blouse were coming up and I'm delighted say Paul Sweeney will be taking over for me but that does it for me today I'm David Westin this is about the power and you are listening to Bloomberg radio this is a Bloomberg pursuits look at luxury top chefs may be grappling with city lockdowns temporary closures of their restaurants and food supply interruptions during the corona virus pandemic but Asia's fifty best restaurants awards went right on the winners were announced in a video live stream in place of a ceremony originally planned for soccer prefecture Japan during cherry blossom season Singapore's debts held under the title of Asia's best.

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