Mike Pezzulo, Linda, Peter Dutton discussed on AM
This week on Australian national security official warned that the drums of war are beating again. Mike Pezzulo said. We should be prepared to send off yet again, our warriors to fight It was taken as a warning that the U. S. And China could go to war over Taiwan, and Peter Dutton, the defense minister said. That's a threat. We should not right off. I just think people need to be realistic about the activity when there's militarization of vices across the region. Obviously, there's a significant amount of activity and this There's an animosity between Taiwan and China. But tensions between China and Taiwan have been simmering for 70 years. So how did it all begin? And why is it such a flashpoint now? So we're talking about a relic off the civil war in China. Melissa Conley Tyler is a research fellow at the University of Milburn's Asia Institute, and she's in Taiwan for her work. So you had the Nationalists in the Communist fighting for control of China, the Communists win and the nationalist group trade to the island of Taiwan, So China sees Taiwan is a breakaway province on day school Children have been towards for the last 70 years that it's In a naive you nibble cache of the country and I can't ever be lifted to go. Where's Of course, Tony's these days feel very much like their own place. And you now at the point, I think under 10% of the population would support reunification. So you've got this strange frozen conflict from the 19 forties very hard to know how to resolve. It's a very interesting moment, isn't it? To think that an island like Taiwan can congrats to have that identity and its democratic as well, But to still have paging, wanting to take it back? And and it seems that she Jim seems pretty keen to do that quickly, doesn't it? Yeah. Up Until now. It has been seeing this something to do and basically just kicked down the road. Andre people you know was used to talk about, say, 2049, which isn't too tannery as being That's the time when maybe we might resolve Taiwan. But what's interesting is in the last year President teaching ping hose Said that? No, actually, this should be a problem for al generation. So with heads, you know record numbers of planes doing incursions into colonies s face. No navy drills off Taiwanese coast and there's just this week, for example, there was a spy plane that tried to get in it. You know, I'm 30 m above ground to try to get into the Taiwanese spice. So so there's a lot more pushing from Beijing on the idea is that you know that sort of gray zone tactics would push Taiwan into more negotiation at very least. Not pushing forward with further attention for independence. Let's just talk about a cup of the other players in this tell us more about how America and Joe Biden's administration is responding to this up to now, the feeling is pain that is in everyone's interest to avoid direct confrontation. It's better to keep the status quo and U. S. Has been part of that. So the U. S doesn't have a treaty Security guarantee for Taiwan in the way, just say has a trading with Australia. It's trading with South Korea or Japan. The Taiwan What you have is an act of Congress called Taiwan Relations Act, which pledges the U. S to help Taiwan my time. It's self defense, but it will short or the full treaty. So this is what the ambiguity you know, if there was an attack on Taiwan would do us come today, not how does that work? And that has been somewhat useful just in keeping everybody from Changing situation. So if Taiwan declared independence that would cause the hot conflict if China invaded that, because the heart's conflict keep it and big Ewers keep the status quo as long as you can, because nobody wants to get to that position now on about the Trump Administration and the by the administration. There's been a lot of really supportive statements on Taiwan, and I think that has been a bit of a change today, even more explicit about the support for Taiwan. But again, the support is always saying reunification has only happened by peaceful names. Everything has to be done by peaceful means. That's the statement the kids being made over and over again. Where do those tensions between America and China leaves Australia? It's Julia. It was a hot conflict. Australia, right? I don't think would be found by treaty. So the the answer's treaty wouldn't extend this far. But I think they'd be a different question about if the U. S was getting involved. Would distract you want to And yet what? Australia want to support a vibrant democracy of around 24 million people again. We don't want to get there and it's important. We keep saying strongly, it should be a peaceful resolution. And so how hypothetical is all of this? And I guess I'm interested in mainland Chinese public opinion, too, because although she jumping is is kind of ramping this up He would surely have to be cognisant of public opinion in his own back. Absolutely, And I think Chinese public opinion in almost all circumstances. Now, it would seem is quite apart to have Chinese killing other Chinese because that's the flip side of everyone having been taught for so long that Taiwan is a part of China that there's a really strong sense of identification and the idea that Chinese government would invade and kill other Chinese well, that that's very problematic, So it sort of depends how it happens. I mean, if Taiwan word to unilaterally declare independence, that's one thing and I can see that there would be an immediate China's response. But anything short of that It's quite hard, which is why you see this graze on tactics and I would expect that to continue. But I think China will calibrated to try toe. You know, keep it below a level with the world community has to respond. I think the biggest worry we have these probably and accidental escalation. Something happens with one of these incursions and that turns into an incident but it's very hard for people to back down from Melissa, You are in extraordinary place an extraordinary time. That's true. Very best of luck with your research. Thank you so much for talking us through it. Thank you, Linda. Well, that Saturday I am for this week. Subscribe to our podcast or find us on the ABC. Listen,.