Bloomberg News, John Tucker, LIZ discussed on Bloomberg Markets


Still the lack of full blown blown capitulation at this point could be a sign that the carnage isn't over yet. You have big firms like Goldman slashing their targets for stocks. They weren't a dramatic upward shift in the outlook for rates will weigh on stock valuations. Yeah, you mentioned the dollar hitting a fresh record sweeping aside other currencies of the pound, for instance, touching its lowest in 37 years. Looking at cable right now, one O 9. Also in striking distance of parity, dollar DXY that measure of 9 tenths of a percent. And as far as yields, the two year of 5 basis points four 17, the ten year is at three 70. We check the markets for you every 15 minutes during the training day right here on Bloomberg radio. I'm John Tucker, and that is your Bloomberg business flash call. All right, John Tucker, thank you so much. We appreciate that. Boy, it just looking at their red across my Bloomberg terminal here with the significant exception of the dollar that continues to be strong, pretty much across the board across all currencies. What to make of all this stuff. Let's check in with Liz McCormick. She's been doing this for a few years. Chief correspondent. She covers global macro markets with Bloomberg news. Liz, what's your takeaway here as we look at the weight of the market this week, this month, this year in the face of what appears to be pretty concerted global tightening here. What do you make of what's going on out there? Well, it is kind of amazing. If you look at the sea of call it size and scope, how big that fall, this is, it's just amazing. And I think let's talk about the rates market for a second. I think there's it's clear that global central banks have gotten religion on inflation, right? This global hawkishness, everybody, besides the bank of Japan. And that inflation is also sticky. I mean, we're seeing, I don't want to seem like an old lady, but people who've been in the market who never saw higher rates saying, wow, jeez, we can go above 4% in a two year node. And I think the doors are all blown off. I mean, look at the UK, the movements are insane. How much yields that rose with the fiscal stimulus, the tax cuts, and it's just kind of an awakening. And I think some of these global bond markets, the sovereign ones are bursting. Those bubbles are getting pumped, popped all over. Yeah, they really are. I think there's a contagion effect that actually Christie Lena gorge of the IMF warned about in the spring meetings, and she said, look, the way the bond market is reacting, it's a sovereign in debt crisis in the EM world. That you got to keep your eye on. Ironically, Liz, people are now saying the pound is turning into an EM currency. What gets me here is, didn't we know this? Didn't we know that if you basically in the United States fight the fed, but basically if you have this kind of budding of heads between the monetary authority and the fiscal authority, things are going to go south and that's why we're seeing flattening in the guilt curve and arguably in the treasury curve as well when you do have these kind of fiscal responses, why would they do this? Well, isn't that the $1 million question? And I'm not one to criticize the UK government, but like Mark Gilbert, who's with our opinion team, wrote, well, the markets are telling you this is not realistic, you know, look at the reaction, like you said. I mean, clearly, people are struggling all over the world, right? With the energy crisis and remnants of it, and the governments want to help, but to put through so many stimulative things while like you said, even the Bank of England is trying, you know, been tightening to bring down inflation that just at lager has with each other. And in the market, I came in at first, I thought, is there a bad tip or something? You know, you can guilt yields up 50 basis points. I mean, it's astounding. So here, back here in the U.S., the twos and tens, the yield curve is inverted, 40 basis points give or take. What does that tell you, Liz? Well, you know, I think despite chairman Powell trying hard to say, I know it's painful, but we're trying to hopefully not destroy the economy. I think the inverted yield curve and had an investor say to me today, Paul, that eventually not too long from now they think the broader curve, like from the fed funds rate or three month bills to the ten year is going to get deeply inverted, which is all a sign of recession. So twos ten being inverted, especially for a while now, right? Yes. And we clearly the bond market saying, we believe you're going to tighten and all rates are going up. But that this doesn't seem like this can be pulled off without turning the economy, the U.S. economy on its head and having a recession. Sometimes, I guess at least by next year, we've had a minute here Liz, I want to bring it back to the global story. The bull case for the treasury market here in the U.S. is it just that everything else is basically struggling right now. I mean, you see these fun flows, you see the most massive bond market itself in the UK, arguably in European I want to say spreads looking to potentially widen over the weekend with this Italian election coming up a far right leader expected to become the first female prime minister in Italy. Is that the bull case for the treasury market? Well, I think probably everyone who's doing it knows they're going to take some pain for a while. But the bull case for the treasury market is all those kind of risks and the long end, right? That you should kind of, a lot of them are peppering their way in, kind of like buying well more pain comes because if Paul was mentioning the recession happens, if more of these global issues keep popping up, then yeah, eventually you're going to see like we saw crazy rally amid the rise today and yields that when risk is so off you're right. Where do you go? The U.S. dollar treasury. So, but I don't think it's going to be without paying for a while pretty. But yeah, you know, buying into the long end is kind of like your hedge here for those other things. All right, Liz, good stuff. We appreciate getting your time Liz McCormick chief correspondent for global macro markets for Bloomberg news. She is a proud Rutgers scarlet knight alum undergraduate and MBA from Rutgers her Rutgers scarlet knights are three NO. They're gonna host Iowa this weekend in piscataway, so lots of good stuff happening at Rutgers and we appreciate Liz taking some time here. And again, you know, we kind of have certainly a risk off here again day today. Feels very heavy across asset classes in general. This is a market discounting what appears to be a global move higher in rates to combat global inflation. All right, right now let's head down to Washington, D.C. We'll get world a national news, and we do that with a new Mars. All right, thank you, Paul, Russian president Vladimir Putin is once again making some thinly veiled threats of using nuclear weapons in the conflict with Ukraine, experts say this can not be discounted. Texas a and M professor John schlesser. If the war turns against them conventionally, that's when they would be tempted to brandish the nuclear threat. And that appears to be happening here. Texas a and M professor John schlesner says if we see the U.S. ramping up activity in that part of the world, then it's time to take the threat seriously, however, he says that's not happening at least not yet. U.S. and China officials, meanwhile, meeting today amid rising tensions over Taiwan, China foreign minister Wang Yi says ties between the two nations are at a low ebb in a sign of low expectations the U.S. characterized today's meeting as no more than a way to maintain open lines of communication. Wine compared the recent push for Taiwan independence to a charging rhinoceros that must be stopped in its tracks and blames the U.S.

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