Persia, Persian Gulf, Middle East discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


Are on the doctor, your join us today, the author of commanding heights, the author of the quest in before that the definitive. Moment for so many of us in the oil crisis, his majesty Ariel the prize day. You're gonna I wanna talk about your underrated book, the quest. Everybody focuses you have to on campus folks. If you cool, you have to walk around with a copy of the prize, just so, you know, like you cool, the quest I remember reading it and going, this is just as good or better than the prize in through it. You know, the middle of the quest you go right to where we are right now, which is the shifting sands in the Persian Gulf in terms of securing the supply, let's begin with first principles. Dan, you're good. Do we need a ransom oil? We don't need a rancher oil, Iran's oil. It's been part of the world market. But what is pricing is how well the market has adjusted to this association, both of a rain oil and at and Venezuelan oil. You've always been a measured voice at the clearest memory of the hysteria of nine. One hundred hundred ten dollars a barrel. You're like, wait thing. You know, the economics will play out. You were always coming can you become now with what you've witnessed over the last two weeks? He's in the moves, and in the Persian Gulf, I come to re- part of the reason for reaction is I really do believe price actually matters people forget that price matters and that it affects how people make decisions and what happens in the market, I think that we are seeing a pattern of kind of call it sporadic escalation, a number of different things happen. It's not just in the Gulf. It's, it's drones missile attacks in Saudi Arabia. It's a rockets in Iraq into where American companies are operating. So I think this is a, a rising tension and, and really the Iranians, I think saying they're really feeling squeezed right now and they have many different mechanisms through which to respond. I think we're. Seeing some of them speak to Americans our listeners coast to coast, and frankly speak to the gentleman just on the street in our Washington studios at sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue when people suggest Iran is a threat. How do you respond? I think that Iran is a continue to develop its missile programs. The Revolutionary Guards has a program and talks about all the air of capitals that it's capturing. So I think there's a struggle for influence in power, and hegemony going on in the Middle East, and Iran is, is, is very much engaged in that at the heart of it right now, probably comes down to an Iranian Saudi struggle for preeminence. But on top of that, of course, is the ending of the or the backing away from the nuclear agreement and Iran is just exporting paltry number of barrels right now. As part of their response, and they're probably also looking down the road Hussein. Well, we've got about a year and a half to go until maybe there's a new president in the United States. We will go. That's right, where I wanted to go with the heritage of Daniel Uragans apprise, those moments in the price of vignettes of new people showing up in the Middle East, one of our things of Persia to show that some of us older lived, and then moving on from the shot is the separation of religion and culture in Iran from a fairly complex and successful economy. That was in Iran. How do you partition the people of Iran? The economy of Iran from the religious extreme in the religious leaders of Iran, I think the understanding is that you have a young generation that really wants to be part of a different world doesn't want to be part of this world. That was created in nineteen seventy nine with the position of the theocratic regime. But the instruments. Power are all in the hands of the theocracy, and they continue to wield them. And the economy, of course, is in pretty bad shape right now because of the sanctions, and even without the sanctions mismanagement of the economy corruption and everything like that. So Iran's economy is, is suffering one final question. If I could Dr yoga and that would be to hearken back to your exquisite effort, commanding heights. I kid you every year at Davos, that we need to see a second addition of that, I as possible, how did the commanding heights look right now from sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue? Well, I think that from the. The question about how much of the commanding heights does the person who's the top commander command and interpret, Iran, going brought, I believe the New York Times reports he canceled the mission while the planes were in the air. I stand corrected affirm wrong. Well, I think I thinking about in terms of the economy, which you've been talking relationship with the fed, but I think that, that he doesn't. I mean there there's obviously disagreement administration about what to do, and this is an uncertain territory where you don't know where it's gonna end and what are your goals at the end of the day? Your thank you so much. We have a new book coming out, can we? Well, I did send in a manuscript yesterday yesterday literally about three o'clock in the afternoon a hint. Well, some of these sips themes, we've just been talking leave it there. With a top secret manuscript. It's out there somewhere folks, and we await publication here, six months. Maybe when you're, you're gonna look for the movie commanding heights fourth of July at I max, we have that. As well. Let's look at oil with Dr Yergin oil was what on the edge of forty nine fifty one a barrel or up seven dollars from that glorious moment of a week ago. West Texas intermediate fifty seven forty four thirty eight cents today. Brent crude sixty remember that level sixty five twenty five below the commanding heights of one hundred ten dollars a barrel from New York from our studios in Washington. Stay with us. This is Bloomberg..

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