John, TOM, Kevin Guinness discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


Hours away from the upper bound from New York City in London. Good morning to you all as we count down to the opening about two as away as the price action Equities drifting higher on the S and P 500 We had some weight to the S and P 500 future through 3400 by 4/10 of 1% and he thanks Market. Donna Waker throughout all of G 10 talked about that stronger Chinese renminbi 1 18 65 on euro dollar In the bond market, we come in a single basis point that range and treasure. He's just holding on holding on holding on holding 0.67% is your yield on the US 10 years as we count down to that Fed decision and reach how cells in 60 minutes time, Tom, I think it's worth pointing out that you've done this repeatedly. Just how many times the data is surprised to the upside on the screen on the Bloomberg right now housing, industrial sector labor market, personal household sector retail. The service is data Tom. All of it. The survey data throw it all in there. It's all been surprising to the upside of compliments, John, you bring up retail. I mean, this is really important course State of consumer And as John mentioned earlier, there's just such parts here. British Airways with 10,000 layoffs to come and yet Amazon talking about 1000. New stores in neighborhoods around the country. What we like and surveillance is people that go the extra mile to beyond with this, Kevin Guinness of Raymond James had every reason to cancel today. Because he is not in the eye of Hurricane Sally. He is in that point East, where there are truly torrential rains in the slow mo motion category two Hurricane Kevin get assuming amid torrential rains down self on the fixed income market, Kevin we're clearly in the eye of the hurricane of the fixed income market. Which way will it cut? When finally yield moves. Well, thanks a lot, Tom. Yeah, Glade Like as we called. It really had. John pointed that out. I have the building. You guys talked about the numbers and those numbers being stronger. I still feel like we're going to see this. As we move towards year end and CIA tenure that's closer to 1%, and it is 50 basis points so well, we don't have two years to move much at all. We do think we'll push it closer to 1% by the end of year. It's just going to Things to go right? I guess. In a sense they're looking for yield happened and that could happen in the next couple of months. Does the 1% 10 year yield Up some 33 bases points, which on a percentage basis is Stanley Fischer would like to mention is a huge move Does that changed the physical calculus in the nation? Well, probably not by a whole lot, but at least least you're breaking a trend lines or rangebound line back. Thinking about both the economic recovery jobs and potentially inflation on that's one of the things the feds will probably addressed today and hopefully address Other on four guidance on both rates and inflation, because that kind of forecast leads you to believe that we're going to come off the needle on inflation as well. And I think that could change. After we get past the end of the year. Hey, Kevin. Great to catch up. We'll let you go. But of a disruption on that line. Stay safe. One you and thanks for giving us your time this morning. We appreciate it. Kevin. Get us there of Raymond James on the issue for May Looking forward. Is that the federal servant policymakers, They're typically always conditioned by previous experience. That makes a lot of sense, of course, But many of the individuals on this FOMC conditioned by the experience of the previous cycle. What did they learn in the previous cycle, They all learned that you can keep rates too low for a whole lot long without inflation getting out of control. They also learned the unemployment could go a whole lot lower without inflation, lifting without those inflation pressures building and that's what they're acting on this time around. It's the conditioning of the previous psycho that is setting them up to approach this one. No questions. I think we need to get our hands around that song. Well, there's no question about that. Did you look back at the current history versus what you learned in the textbooks? John. I would say that I'm aggregate demand to based on this and you know on hell, Gurion. The always see Deem made clear today. The aggregate demand all in isn't there, but what's so so important about this is if yields go. There's a published belief they'll remain calm and collected well above 2%. John. I don't buy that for a single breath. There's going to be some real sweat if inflation starts moving up outside that comfortable band What do you think is comfortable? Tom? What do you think The comfortable band is and what you think is comfortable for Chairman Powell, Presidente Kaplan, Hocker, the rest of them. Do you think they've got their own different views on that? Yes, They have widely different views on this. And you know what's interesting. John is off the green span years. Everybody was supposed to be on the same page. Well, guess what. It's like the Bank of England. They're not on the same page. And that will be excuse me. Interesting to see what one person I'd watch is Charlie Evans of Chicago who has been exceptionally articulate about those gradations higher if we ever see it in yield. Yeah. I don't expect to see a governor King Governor County type response and let inflation go through 234% bear in mind. That was largely off the back of a currency move. I imagine you're right. Some 2.5 3 and you start here in the horse Come on Expensive stuff, but let's face it. There are no hawks left on this forum say Tom is just about the dovish spectrum and who sits where My point. Tommy's on financial stability, and I actually think the Federal Reserve is in a really tough spot.

Coming up next