Dodgers, Giants, Padres discussed on Effectively Wild: A FanGraphs Baseball Podcast
They don't win the division so it's not like by any means but i think it's pretty good chance they end up atop the he yeah. The playoffs leads gives the dodgers a seventy six point. Five percent chance to win rate now. The strength of schedules are fairly even the rest of the way giants a little tougher but but even just looking retrospectively like getting to this point on this day of the season. You know if i had told you back on opening day that the dodgers would be eighty five and forty nine on september third and on pace for one hundred three wins putting aside where the giants are where the padres art cetera. Like which you say. That is kind of like the fiftieth percentile outcome for them. Are they outperforming or underperforming expectations. That's a good question. I it is probably right. Almost right exactly where you would expect them. But like in in a in a way that. There's no way you would have expected like they went into the season with with trevor bauer and obviously a healthy clayton kershaw. They kept talking in the in the spring about eight. Starting pitchers two of those were david price and jimmy nelson Jimmy nelson's out for the year and he was used solely in relief. Price was mostly reliever now started but not really as starter so like they somehow manage to still be good they. They lost cody. bellinger time. Plus he's coming up shoulder surgery and has been terrible cory. Seager missed to me like almost four months with broken and three months. I guess and mookie. Betts has been on the injured list. So i don't know like how they've done. It is weird but this is still probably right. Roughly where you would have expected them. I think at the beginning of the season. I would like to offer up the ninety. Nine percent ci-. I mean every every year or at least for the last couple of years. I've been tasked with writing the giants best-case scenarios the worst case in the in between right. Then it's one of the. It's it's something that i've done for a couple of years now and you go to the worst case scenario when it's you know it's the apocalypse everything bad happening. The best The the likeliest scenario at the jobs are going to be pretty good. They were going to be interesting. They were going to be a team that was worth watching. And i was okay with that. And then the best case scenario that. I wrote it again the the job that i had was to come up with a pollyanna stuff with just make it up. Just make up the best case scenario and i still think undersold what the chinese have done. This year like You know the the actual words that i write were something like Maybe they'll win a lot of games maybe a lot more maybe enough to make the dodgers and padres sweat. It's like maybe they could at least put the thought in their heads and they better like now. They're they're tied and with the dodgers at the top of the division and it's like panic time in giants land because oh my gosh. They're finally tied. It's coming it's you know it's this is the worst case scenario now. This is still ninety nine percentile stuff. Yeah we spent the early part of the season extolling the virtues of the dodgers padres series. And how we hoped that that would be every series. They would play for the rest of the season. And now mike benson like. I can't remember the last time. I was excited for a regular season series. So the turn tables have turned as they say You both mentioned health and sort of durability as the limitation that is potentially in the way for both of these teams. But i'm curious just generally as we zoom out both for the season going forward sort of what you view as the best and worst parts of each of these teams like. What are the things where you see a guy. Come and you go. Oh thank god or you go. I'm going to have to do a rewrite what is inspiring confidence and trepidation for each of you giving me confidence right now. Is that for the most part. The dodgers offense is at full strength. A big part of that has been mookie. Betts being healthy. He's had hip issues. Most of the second half the he missed two different stints on the injured list. It's weird because he was just hitting up a storm but like can really run much and he had some insane number. I think he's slugging eight hundred since the all-star break but just barely play. But yeah just getting healthy. I think since the dodgers acquired trae turner rope. Oh by the way. He's like probably like a pretty decent like nl mvp candidate. They've only played trae turner. Mookie betts together eight times. So i think over the last twenty eight years or so. They'll probably still have to rest bets every so often. But i would imagine those guys will be in the lineup. At least like twenty times you know. And that's a positive sign and plus adding cory seager back after he missing much time. They're back at that Knock on wood like no holes. Line up i guess it is a way to put it and i think everyone in the lineup is pretty good outside of They're at a point where they don't have to play cody bellinger. Basically and he. He's been just so bad like good defensively but not good enough. It's really play so he he's still gonna start every now then but i think they just. The health of the offense is probably the most optimistic thing for them right now. Yeah i don't wanna cut off your answer. But i did want to ask about bellinger just because he is now basically being platoon right. He's not hitting against lefties. He is theoretically hitting against ratings. But not all that well. And we mentioned recently on the podcast when he went on a little bit of a hot streak and he had four homers and four games but then he went back into a deep slump seemingly. So what's your diagnosis of bellinger. And is this like at long term concern or is it just like a write off this season sorta thing i've kinda written off the season mostly because he's coming up shoulder surgery and he might. It might take a while for the power to come back like you know. We've seen with like adrian's solace in sean green. Maybe took into that second year. Post the injury or surgery until they fully got a back. Or i guess chongron's really didn't get it back but yet like he's also a tinkerer and so he goes into slumps than mess with this swing like after his. Nbc's overhauled his swing. Okay that's that's an odd thing to do and so a bite like this whole season like you just look at it like he had off season shoulder surgery. He didn't really play in spring training till the final two weeks and.