United States, China, China Asia Than Europe And North America Africa discussed on PRI's The World
It's an unusual holiday this year as we can help but focus on people civilian and military who are dying now. Nearly a hundred thousand Americans have died from covid nineteen in the past three months. That's more American dead than from the Vietnam and Korean wars combined that is grim. The encouraging news is the number of daily reported cases in the US appears to be slowing in South America. Though cases are spiking the World Health Organization says the disease epicenter has now shifted their Carolina bucky epidemiologist at Harvard's t h Chan School of Public Health. Thanks for being with us today. Caroline so China Asia Than Europe and North America Africa and now this very active infection rate in South America. When you look at the pattern of the geographic spread of this virus of the last five months. What does it tell you? Well I think the pattern of spread I reflects international connections with the original epicenter in China through air travel and so forth and then since then we've seen efficient transmission in communities beyond that so As you mentioned the number of cases in the US seems to be declining but that really reflects a shift from transmission in large cities like New York which were attached to the original epicenter through air travel initially and a shift into the central part of the country and into other communities that are connected differently so the Patton of outbreaks is following the pattern of migration around the world after the original epicenter in. Wuhan that shift that you just described from a urban to rural communities like here in the state says that duplicated itself and other countries to yes I think. Initially the epidemics was seen in the cities in capital cities. But then we saw a shift to the communities in rural areas. And I think one thing that happened that we've seen over and over again. Is that some of the lockdowns had the impact of moving people out of the cities to rural areas. So we had a kind of you know. Normally we have rural to urban migration and this epidemic has led to policies like travel restrictions which seemed to have shifted people from an sent his out to rural locations and that efficiently transmitted the virus to different parts of the country so that shift as well as the natural progression of people. Traveling around has led to this lag in more rural areas that are only just starting to see that epidemics taking off. President trump is stopping most airline travel from Brazil to the US due to travel restrictions. Like that make any difference at this point. Well I think we have such widespread transmission across the US that is local. I don't think that the travel restrictions are going to make considerable difference to that in meantime get used to best hygiene practices because it sounds like they're going to be around for awhile absolutely this is not this is not going away. The virus is in our communities and it spreads very efficiently so we have to get used to the fact that we need to change all contact patterns. It doesn't have to be a lockdown or nothing. We need to find ways to reduce contacts between susceptible and infectious people in our workplaces at leisure in homes and so on and those social distancing interventions are going to be with us for some time so Memorial Day weekend. It's the official. Start OF SUMMER. There's a patchwork of different protocols and different states for reopening As well as in countries in Europe like Italy on all trying to get back to some degree of normal. What are you most worried about at this point? I think the biggest concern is. That states are reopening without having sufficiently good surveillance to be able to monitor the epidemic. So what that means is if you if you can't monitor infections when they happen than what will happen is that the state will be reactive to for example a such in deaths from covid nineteen. And if you'll reacting to a surge in deaths than you're already behind the curve because deaths occurred three weeks after the infection that caused them so if states do not have sufficiently good surveillance in place. It means they will constantly be reacting too late to what's happening with transmission of the virus and once deaths assessing. You've already got very widespread transmission in your community so my biggest concern is that the valence systems. Necessary to really keep tabs on. What's happening with infections in the community on not sufficient right now and that means that states won't be able to change course if they need to and make sensible policy decisions based on evidence about what's happening in their communities. Caroline Bucky is in epidemiologist at Harvard. T H Chan School of Public Health. Thank you very much for being with us on this Memorial Day. Thank you thank you for having me. China is sending a strong message to Washington today. Stay out of our affairs. In Hong Kong this coming after both Republicans and Democrats threatened sanctions against Beijing over their new plan. Security Law for Hong Kong Beijing's Foreign Ministry today accused Washington of trying to harm China's national security mini-van fundraiser when Jansher Dinsdale. He buys spokesman a Zhao Legion accusing. Us of quote complete lies turning black into white and quote and he described Beijing's efforts in Hong Kong as fighting terrorism. This is just the latest salvo in a long running feud between the US and China Washington and Beijing have big disagreements over trade technology and territory in the Pacific but the atmosphere now has become downright toxic stirring up talk of a new Cold War as that takes hold. How bad could things get? The world's Patrick win reports. There's this buzzword among Chinese officials little Gen Suwa Cold War mentality being cheese them dense Louis. Lean who abandoned the cold? War Mentality says China's foreign affairs spokesman the US treating us like the Soviet Union. They say viewing everything that comes out of China as a threat to America like when trump talks about the corona virus. This is worse than Pearl Harbor. This is worse than the World Trade Center. There's never been an attack like this and it should have never happened. Could have been stopped at the source could have been stopped in China. So here we go again. The United States versus the world's number two power if this is Cold War Two point. Oh we should revisit the first Cold War. It was probably worse than what you learn in school. For starters. It was not cold at all. It was a Cold War for the two most powerful nations on earth the United States and the Soviet Union but for the rest of the role. That was anything but cold. It was it was hot and it was bloody and it was constant. Vincent Bevan's is the author of a new book called The Jakarta method. That's all about the Cold War not the war in Korea the Cuban Missile Crisis Vietnam. The parts everyone knows about but plots that were so well covered up that only now. Are we learning? Just how bad they were through. Declassified files like a us-backed mass murderer campaign that started in Asia and spread to Latin America in more than twenty countries. There was the intentional mass murder of unarmed civilians. Usually for being us or being accused of being leftist it started in Indonesia biggest country in Southeast Asia and back in the nineteen sixties. They had the largest communist party outside China and the USSR. The party wasn't that hard core. They didn't even have guns but they were popular. Here's one of their anthems a a west the CIA they told Indonesia's military wipe.