Three Months discussed on Unchained
So last year a lot of people felt that bitcoin futures would lead to a rise in the price of bitcoin. And they definitely I think gave bitcoin sort of some sort of a symbolic validation, which led to this short-lived bubble. But as seen this year the existence of the coin futures is not helped the price of decline. So why not and then how do you think that will be different? Or do you think it will be different from the impact that will see from backed and fidelity launching yet. You know, I I have to admit to being somewhat naive on that element as well. I thought that the futures would have a more meaningful impact than they had one way to tell the story of last year's bubble. So bitcoin peaked almost exactly with the launch of the futures a common trend is that SP. Regulators will by you know, by the rumor, sell the news is a common statement, investing and trading. That's kind of exactly what happened here. The relied people who had large speculative positions that in their heads were short term. So they were kind of weak hands. They were betting on an event in the bet was I'm gonna buy a head of the futures. And I'm going to sell institutions who are buying by futures. What happened was just we didn't get much net buying from the futures. It's it's very hard to you know, every time someone buys that means there's a cellar. So a futures for every buyer there must be a seller. But so it's very hard to know was their net buying or net. Selling what does that mean? Well, what would it would mean as if the rollout of institutions would never bought before were subtly buying bitcoin futures for every buyer the seller? But what it would mean as there'd be arbitragers selling the futures and buying the underlying the underlying in this case was being actual bitcoin. It's hard to know what the net kind of trading was in futures. There's a commitment of traitor report that kind of breaks down, but doesn't do a great job. But long story short. We didn't get much net selling there wasn't much general by. By a futures which surprise me a bit it it. I think highlights ju- just how many obstacles there are institutional adoption. The futures did fix a lot of that. So you don't have to custody of futures. You don't have you don't deal with security issues as lot you don't deal with. But an institutional investing is very slow gradual decision making process where I mean, something we hear a lot, for example is okay, great the futures launched. Let's see them go three months without a major crisis. So let's let's see if the futures are limited upper limit down every other day. Let's see if they successfully track bitcoin. I mean, what happens if our trading a massive premium to bitcoin, there's a lot that people need to see empirically trust is built purely. What I mean by that is let's say this. This is true on the custody side. So if a new custodian launches doesn't matter if they do everything perfectly they can have a sock one audit. They can be audited by the best financial firms..