Terry Maclaurin, NFL, Jefferson discussed on Establish The Run
You get up to thirty five dollars for free on underdog. Please take their money. Do not wasted head to the best ball tab. For more details there are matt. Let's give people a quick refresher on what reception perception is. I suspect many of them. No but perhaps some don't in a one minute how can you tell them what it is why you do it. How does it work. What is reception perception. Yeah as you mentioned. I think that the cream does tend to rise to the top with wide receivers. You know the good guys tend to produce year-over-year they eventually rise top depth charts and the problem is adam that it's really tough to identify. Who's good at wide receiver based on your listeners. Know this you know this. Like based on the fact that their production is so inherently dependent on outside variables. you know. obviously you need a good quarterback or whatever but there's really nothing out there. Statistics wise that completely isolates the wide receiver from his surrounding variables. I think reception perception are more bullish on this now than ever i think is the only thing that isolates wide receiver play from. Everything else just focuses on on the one thing. The wide receiver can control which is how often they get open health and they run good routes what type of routes they run so it over an eight game sample for. Nfl players and college players are back. this year. as well i go in and isolate those waters chart every single route that they run in that eight-game sample hal from they get open verse man press zone et cetera. Often they get open on each individual route type as well as antler metrics like contested catch rate yards after the catch. Some of those other things basically again. I'm trying to not just give you everything you need to know about. Wide receiver trying to isolate them from the surrounding variables. So that four guys you know that eventually get put in that position to produce. We know who is good before they're good and just how good they arcus. That's another thing. I think it's especially pertinent to your listeners and people that are trying to draft in best ball leagues right now since this site has gone independent now at reception. Perception dot com. We've done a lot more studying on you. Know what are the thresholds that we want guys to hit and you know production. How does that correlate with reception perception. Happy to report. James a business partner. Put an article up showing like if you're over the ninetieth percentile you're gonna average eighty plus yards per game in a season. It's very rare that those guys failed a gaza get open. They they tend to win in the nfl tend to rise to the top. So yeah i'm i'm i'm very bullish on this process identifying players and we'll talk more about that throughout the entire show today. Yeah exactly okay. Let's get into the player takes. I want to start with just jefferson because jefferson rookie year career arc was wild i mean he was a second stringer. All throughout training camp was just jefferson played behind johnson in weeks one and we to and he goes off for one of the greatest rookie wide receiver seasons in the history of the nfl. Was there anything fluky here on justin jefferson or is he legit already one of the best wide. Receivers the nfl. Yeah i thought it was so funny that he started off kind of slow in training. Camp wasn't playing the first two seasons. And i guess there were some negative reports coming out of there. You know that he was dropping passes or whatever but i mean this was a refined guy in college like even the fact that he played in a slot really didn't matter to me Yeah it to me. I think he is a full-blown stud. There's nothing fluky here. I mentioned guys that are over. The ninetieth percentile. Those are like the best of the best. He was over the ninetieth percentile and success. Rate verse man and press coverage second-best in press coverage last year second only to steph on digs ironically. The guy the guy that he replaced their. I think really over the last few years that reception perceptions been around two thousand fourteen to two thousand twenty. He probably had the second best season second only to odell beckham for a rookie wide receiver. So i don't think there's anything fluky Fluky with guys long as he stays healthy as long as it continues to targets which. We have no reason to not be confident. I'm i'm right there where he is in. Adp right now in terms of my rankings. Yeah we have him. Twenty fourth overall right there with now right there with decay metcalf and i like taking one of those guys i actually like jefferson the best and then tk and then key now. Taking one of those guys at the back end. When i get those christian mccaffrey teams. I start a lot with chris. Mccaffrey justin jefferson. Darren waller and teams like that and i like just jefferson there for sure term maclaurin and this is i think one thing that we can say about your process when the qb's are alex. Smith dwayne haskins kyle. In case keenum. it can be difficult to identify. Exactly how good terry mcchord as we can say. Hey records had some really good games with these really dusty quarterbacks now he gets talent maximize their i think in ryan fitzpatrick. And so. i'm excited about terry maclaurin. I'm excited about this washington football team in general. How have you evaluated. Terry maclaurin with these quarterbacks threw his first. nfl seasons. Yeah i think terry maclaurin is like a true stud. I think he is the next superstar. Receiver that the national public audience might not be ready to put their. I'm ready to put him there. He was number five in success. Rate versus man coverage last year. Ironically he was right behind alan robinson at seventy eight point six percent. And i think he's been saved from the allen robinson career path where we're like you know. Seven years and alan robinson's career. Still complaining about the fact that he hasn't played with a good quarterback yet. Maybe this is changing now with justin fields. Obviously but i think terry mc warren was saved from that fate. And i mean i feel very similarly to terry maclaurin as i did with allen robinson way back in the day at some point. He's going to have that elite type season Even when he is playing with bad quarterbacks now we now we don't really have to about that. So i'm full like guns blazing for for terry maclaurin. I have him right now at wide receiver. Eleven in my second tier I'm very bullish on him. This year producing a wide receiver. One season. I feel like all the confluence of factors. There are are right there. So yeah i mean top studying in man coverage press coverage like true alpha number one receiver. We should really have no hesitation when it comes to to maclaurin. He is in unbelievably good route runner for a second year player. Yeah and we talked to this about us loud with ohio state guys where they were asked do very very specific things at ohio state and that kind of pushes down their draft capital of terry mcferrin would've gone to a different college. I bet he would have been a first round of higher first round pick. You know what. I mean these ohio state guys. We don't see their route get expanded they come to you know. People don't know if they can do it. And then we realised oh they can do and i think we might see that would paris campbell too. But i'm getting off track. Shout to urban. Meyer are good good pal. Urban meyer Are putting off putting us off the scent on wide receivers early on t. Higgins is the third guy i wanna talk about. Now it's an interesting case on t. higgins quote unquote only nine hundred eight yards and six touchdowns as a rookie. But i thought he was pretty impressive. Especially when joe borough was healthy obviously it was going to be tough with brandon and ryan finley in there. The thing that surprised me on t higgins though is the market is on him. Big time t- higgins is going in the fourth or fifth round. I actually prefer marches and at adp. I prefer tyler boyd. Also but i'm afraid deacons going to ram it down my throat. So i'm curious..