Jordan, Deutsche Bank, Tom Keane discussed on Bloomberg Surveillance


When you look at how much the Euro has overshot in the past, we've come up with a range of anywhere between 9 to 5 and parity. And I think in the current environment, that sort of range is not really unreasonable. Just survey lost the club ahead of FX research at Deutsche Bank seemingly everyone on board with this story now looking for a weaker Euro from New York City this morning, good morning. Tom Keane, Lisa brahmi and Jonathan farrow looking at futures with a bit of a bounce. We're negative a half of 1% on a S&P yield to lower by 7 basis points on the day on a ten year crude at 99 down by 4.75% and Euro dollar. Let's just call it parity. Jordan Rochester of namur Tom looking for 95 by the end of August, more painter camp for that currency pair. When we invented Bloomberg surveillance folks, it's about bringing in the experts John and I think we can say, John, as Jordan, where I just started Nomura, is nuanced and different than George Sarah velis a Deutsche Bank is nuanced and different than the giant Steven anglin or over its standard charter and to talk to all those people to read their research helps us collate around this shock that we have. Should we bring in Jordan Rochester? You bring them in right now. You bring them to interact. Jordan, where'd you get the extra downside from on Euro dollar from where we are down to say 95 in August? Morning, everyone, afternoon, everyone. Well, in terms of why we think you're a carries on. The risk is, of course, these gas flows, but there's also a global recession story building app. So I think most analysts have now only just realized Euro can keep heading lower. There was actually quite a bit of a fight in the sort of sell side community around the one O 6 level when the ECB turn hawkish. Well, now it's quite clear that gas flows dominating and the reason it goes to 95 is probably three reasons. The first one is the gas flows. We think that there's a high chance that Nord stream doesn't resume its operations. And what we're seeing is a fundamental macro story. You're a dollar is heading lower because European importers of gas are buying whatever they can buy from the U.S. from Qatar from Azerbaijan. They are just throwing money at the wall to make sure the EU achieves the 80% gas storage aims. The roughly around 62 or 66% for so they've got a lot more to do. And that's forced you're selling all the way until that target is reached. During the second reason is China. Okay, I'm sorry. Continue. The second reason is China. China's COVID business cycle before the break we had a little first work there telling us that Shanghai might be going into lockdowns again. That's the biggest trading partner for the Euro area. So demand is just come out of the curve for European exports. And the third one is recession risks. The U.S. raising rates the way they have, the way the world has moved to the supply chain and inflation, the ECB is going to raise rates in July, September, October, and so on, but we are talking about rate cuts here at noura next year. I think that's the next trade, and I find it really interesting how there's so much fed cuts price for next year, the curves inverted. But that hasn't happened in Euro yet. So that's the next story and that's going to weigh on Euro as well. So it's not just all about gas flows. It's a bigger story. Two cents spread moving from negative ten to a negative 11 basis points. Get your attention. Jordan, you and I were weaned on reading dually focused Landau Garber. David foker to land over at the big German bank makes real clear at some point. We have to step in using Euro is a proxy. Are we anywhere near on a Jordan Rochester 0.95 where institutions will step in to staunch the dollar strength? It's definitely possible, but I think it's unlikely. It's definitely not my base case, so I can say that. So when the Euro was invented, there was FX intervention. That was the authorities around the world stepped in, the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and so on to help support the currency that said that it didn't spur a Eurozone crisis in its early infancy. So there was a joint effort there and at the same time inflation was not as much of a problem as it is today. Right now, every Central Bank around the world pretty much wants a stronger currency. It helps tame inflation from import costs. So that's why we're seeing even the likes of the SMB who have for years fought the kerb and tried to not have a stronger currency. They're pretty much asking for one. Well, the Eurozone they can do that via rate hikes. And I think that's the main way that they're going to possibly do that. But as I said earlier, the growth story is much bigger than just the rate hikes is what's going on with gas in China. But FX intervention is being talked about in Japan as well. Another great example, the authorities there say the move is detached from fundamentals where most of the charts we look at say actually the movie is quite in line with fundamentals. That's the same with the Euro. We've had a huge terms of trade shot Tom and German exports have now become very uncompetitive. The cost of electricity and energy in Europe is roughly around 6 times higher than America. So to make a piece of manufactured equipment, you're paying 6 times more in electricity costs. You're uncompetitive versus an American farm. You need a weaker currency to help you out. Jordan, I want to tease out the potential cases that you lay out in your most recent note, 95 is the most likely that you see by mid August or the end of August, I should say, that's according to your latest note. But you said that a 90 print could actually be reasonable to look for over the winter if we do get a Nord stream one cut down, cut off if a Russia does not restore the gas supplies. At what point does something break? At what point is there a level at which you start to see a contagion that perhaps is not linear? Well, I think 95 to 90 is non linear. What breaks? Well, I think credit channels will be much more of the area where things break. So the rise in interest rates we've seen, the drying up of consumer demand. We're going to see a lot of business models really challenged and that's where you'll have something breaks. The irony of that is, if you have credit spreads widen, that leads to a dovish Central Bank typically. And that would mean a lower Euro. So I still think the exchange rate is the release valve, and I don't think the exchange rate is what's going to cause that stress. It's coming from the supply and the demand side of the equation when it comes to those risks. But look, when we get to 95, we're kind of basing that on the Nord stream one flows maybe coming back to 40% of their capacity. What 90 sense is that's the scenario where Nord stream one does not come back on and the Euro area does not get enough gas storage and the German manufacturers get their gas rationed. The bundesbank in Germany have already done the

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