Texas, Fifteen Twenty Percent, Eighteen Times discussed on Adventures in Finance: A Real Vision Podcast
Bigger and bigger so one of the things that i was expecting you to talk about when we were thinking about games that was his whole intergenerational thing. 'cause that was a that was an undercurrent that you saw there I don't watch all the capitol hill stuff. I don't know how much that was on display. But this whole sort of like you know. Not only is it demand that we're sticking to but there's this sense that You know boomers. They made out like bandits. And you know the millennials. They're getting stuck with the with the the bag of talk to me about that. Would how how. How do you see that in the whole game. stop thing. Yeah there's there's a great chart the other day Which was boomers on majority of of assets. Right it's no gen xers on like a tiny bit more than oils on like nothing. And it's really the same thing on the micro structure level as it is on the macro level where you're cornered the market assets in leverage in if rates rise. You know that's all blows up. But they what happens at the end of cycles. Everyone's like what happens with boomer sell what happens what we expect. A crazy euphoria when the flow is this big like the incremental causes in a symmetric. Eighteen times move in market cap. You you think there would be a blow off top and then retail would lever up chase it right. We're we're kind of seeing that now in. I never thought it would get like a ymer level but now like we're getting there like it's kinda crazy when you look at the amount of debt in the narratives change to if you look if you what you're reading all these articles people now. No okay keisha recovery. This is completely unfair. I don't know how we change this. And they just keep doing the same thing. And there's this underlying contingent of people if you if you're paying attention they're like they. Now get why cryptos in i. I'm really if you even dig deeper. Preston pysche said something mind. He's like if you actually look at the interest rates you can get in crypto by essentially like are being buying spot in selling futures like an easy riskless fifteen twenty percent and he goes what happens if what if that is actually the real market interest rate of where things should be really fascinating thought experiment. The fed is basically stomped at all riskier. But in this completely free market over here with finite supply and increasing demand you can manufacture like really yield there. And i think that's just the giant arm and who does the best model sailor. He issues debt to unfunded pensions at zero percent rates. In then buy something with such finite supply that has a genuine yield with incremental dollars. Moving in. he's he's a twenty first century bank issuing debt to unfunded pensions and buying something. That's highly inflationary sensitive. I mean that. That's brilliant. And i think a lot of people are going to tag onto this eventually. This is where it actually undermines the us dollar at some point. People do this forever. But we'll see this next decision by the fed is the biggest decision ever. It really is would look. What would meeting are you thinking about. It's either like the next time eating. I don't know the exact date but it's either euchre control in you. Just say we're gonna just make inflation happened inflated with the debts or you say we have a free market and i think they're not gonna choose a free market. It's not a free market. Everybody like it's. it's so obvious. It's not a free market at this point. If pockets of little capitalism happening for the most part it's not market so this next one will will be china. Are we going to be america. And i think they're gonna choose china so let me unpack this for one second outlet. I'll play devil's advocate so We went to war against the the nazis and japanese Italians one but there was a huge amount of debt associated with that and then there was also the You know the demobilisation the bed. That's when they first came in and they did yield curve control. They said that's it. You know capping rates at that. Point knowing batted in. I back then. Everyone accepted it for what it wasn't no bad things happen. We had the the the baby boom. That's when the baby boomers were born. Why don't we go back. Is it possible that. That's the future of for america is going back to another boom like we had the it's conceivable and i think you have to incentivize the entrepreneurs in the real the real people in in your pockets capitalism because that's happening certain places in there there is real innovation but on on the whole growth is stagnating in my opinion. And that's why you see. Basically everyone is forced into at the end of the cycle. Last growing thinks it creates those bubble leg hurt wightman tallies. But i think we could. You know if if the entrepreneurs are that good and the money flows to to the venture guys. We'll see they got to come up with something pretty good with the baby boom now. We have a baby the baby rolling over it right so we'll see that. Join our question and it's literally the chilean because that's what all this backs are all about basically We'll see what they come up with. I'm not that hopeful either. So i'm with you there. Yeah i mean there's great things happening in there that things happening on take with a grain of salt but no we get extremely narrow vision to think about this next big fed meeting is going to be a doozy. So before will good tyler. Thanks for putting those three issues in perspective. I hope that things get better down there in texas for you and appreciate you coming back along. Appreciate it thanks. I didn't shower today. So that's why. I got the backwards hat on. No water.