Los Angeles, Trillion Dollars, Mill discussed on Marketplace

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In Los Angeles on car rental Wednesday today the twenty first of August is always to have you along everybody we are going to start with the big picture today a little bit of federal reserve a little bit of the Congressional Budget Office a quick pass by the R. word and then you the source of all hope in this economy you the American consumer which sounds like an exaggeration actually that bit about you being the source of all hope it really mostly not as you will see but with the fed we begin in the observation that the central bank released the minutes of its most recent meeting this morning that to be the meeting back last month when it raised interest rates for the first time in a decade remember that just one quick point about this in the macabre yachts the point is this it's clear from the minutes that there are some divisions within the federal open market committee about what to do with this economy some people wanted a bigger cut in interest rates some people wanted none J. pal the chairman pretty much split the difference with that quarter point as you remember here though is the copy out Powell is giving a big big speech on Friday at a fed meeting out in Wyoming tune in as they say for the tea leaf reading on that one will have it for you alright the Congressional Budget Office has promised the CBO was out with one of its regular economic forecasts today the news was not great Sir Bender is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution the CBO said that the government is doing worse in terms of its finances even worse than we had expected meaning the deficits are climbing in essence about a trillion dollars of deficits are to be expected each year in the coming decade a trillion dollars a year for the next decade the trump tax cuts increase government spending you know the reasons it matters because as deficits are over trillion dollars what happens when the government really needs to stimulate the economy when there's an economic downturn and you're running out of room the higher and higher those debts go course there's always the fed but we know the president thinks about the fed right so let's talk about a down turn the not great economic signs are getting a lot of attention on this program and pretty much on every other outlets to cover the economy because it's the job global growth is down business confidence down as well there's a trade war you might have heard of that inverted yield curve as well which happened again today by the way on the other hand the president trump as in it and his advisers are saying everything's fine better than fine actually strongest economy ever but that all the coverage is going to spook consumers and push us into recession so cannot happen marketplace Merrill cigar reports now on the power of negative thinking there's this concept in psychology called the availability heuristic I now sorry jargon but it has to do with how suggestive all people are Kelly Lanier is a behavioral economist at Emory University for example if you've just watched the movie jaws then you might be less likely to go swimming in the ocean someone who has not seen the movie or has not seen it in several years granted we're talking about the economy and actual economic indicators not a fictional movie but she says the point is the more we hear about something the more we're gonna think about it so if recessions are consistently talk a recession is consistently in the news then individual can't help but be thinking of that especially when they're making spending decisions now for the copycats first we can't predict what consumers are gonna do with negative news about the economy you'd have you know one can't that mold squirrel away money for a rainy day and then you have others that would choose to spend at all now second caviar consumers think about a lot of things when they're deciding whether to buy stuff like their personal finances part of an arc is chief economist at the conference board you know what would happen to a bank account and what do they get in trouble at that table every month then are also points out that while negative economic news could hurt consumer spending the news right now is an all negative one moment they hear news about rates increase S. and a strong labor market and a lot of times that your news about the trade disputes and the market's coming down so if anything consumers are probably a little confused we get it I Merrill Sierra for market place here is where you get to chime in go to market place dot org let us know what you think when you're me and everybody else knew that or word and is speaking of you by the way the stuff buying American public as we've been reporting the American economy is still in decent shape in no small part because consumer confidence and spending is still doing pretty well to that end of mega retailer target reported higher quarterly sales and profits this morning but we do no doubt by us but as market place's any you'll reports target's recent run is also very much about target at the end of February twenty seventeen target reported declining sales and profits for the holiday season just past and the company issued a gloomy outlook CEO Brian Cornell told investors he was gonna spend billions of dollars to help lower prices and also remodel hundreds of stores investors killed target stock if you think about where retail killing today investing in toward the doesn't seem like the right mill that's Sonya Penske she covers retail Alex partner she says in the age of Amazon it all felt like a reach the target was playing the long game people are still going to store it there and their expectations for those stories are really different she says targets mated stores more appealing to shoppers feel Sanders as retail analytic level data he says target also chose wisely in pushing proprietary brands like market pantry and made by design where the margins are higher if you want that brand of clothing or their brand of home essentials home products you have to go to target to get them so that differentiation is really helped the target didn't forget about Amazon the company invested in speeding delivery of website orders and easy store pick ups Bob fibs runs the retail doctor consultancy you know when you look Brent are able to do that JC Penney Macy's they haven't had this consistent laser focus on knowing exactly what they should be doing without hearing from that he says target has made the right investment choices recently and it's gonna need to do more of that if it wants to keep winning in a rapidly changing retail environment I need either for market place Wall Street on is Wednesday all good thanks you will have the details when we do the numbers never put on one of those virtual reality headsets probably not they still.

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