Ed Yard Denny, UK, Steve discussed on Bloomberg Markets


These long-term buy and hold people? What are you guys doing? About all the trades that went the other way, but I'm happy to. Is the idea that basically when you, when you make that much money, you don't want to get greedy and you just cash in. Yeah, yeah, there's a lot of volatility in the UK is certainly not a an area where we have a lot of confidence in the near term direction of where things are heading. But when things get to extreme levels, like we saw, we weren't positive rates we're going to peak out or there would be intervention. That wasn't really the thesis. But the markets do push back against policymakers at some point and that will be the case with the currency as well. Bond vigilantes, they're back according to Ed yard Denny. So, Steve, how about credit quality here? A lot of folks are saying we're either in a recession or certainly heading towards one, it may even be a severe one. Your teams, your analysts, are they really sharpening their pencils and kind of checking out all the ratios to make sure that they're not overly exposed to credit risk? Yeah. Yes, we are. I mean, I think the areas to be very concerned about, I think, are anything that touches Europe given the degree of stress that that economy is going to be under what the energy crisis there. Here in the U.S., yes, we're definitely sharpening our pencils. There's areas of the market regulated areas like banks that we think notwithstanding the fact that banks typically do suffer a bit during recessions. We think the banks are well positioned today. And so there are areas of the investigate market where we sharpen the pencils. We've stressed what credits it look like in a recession, even the severe one. And feel very comfortable. And for example, money center bank senior debt of money center banks north of 200 basis points spread to treasuries. We think that's a very attractive risk return notwithstanding a fairly fairly bearish outlook for the economy. We do think we're heading for research. Is it too bearish? Is it too bearish? Yeah, drunken Miller said he would be, I think he said he'd be shocked if there wasn't a recession by the end of the year. Is there is high yield then too risky right now? Yeah, well, here's what I would say about high yield. As I mentioned, almost 10% yield. If you could buy your high yield today, put it in a drawer, do a rumple stealth skin fall asleep and wake up in 5 years, you'd be happy you did that. But high yield doesn't we're in a mark to market world total return world. And our sense is that we haven't hit the widen spreads on high yield in the cycle at 550 off treasuries are a little north of that. We think there's material widening. We're adding a little bit. We're seeing a little bit of opportunity, but we're saving our powder. We do think somewhere hundreds of basis points wide to hear is where you start to back up the truck. All right. Good stuff, as always, Steve Kane, co CIO, and general's portfolio manager, TC, W investment management. That meeting plus the capital group are your two anchor meetings when you go to Los Angeles. Those are the ones that you build your whole schedule around that. So when you're going out there to pitch your wares, TC W and capital group, good stuff. Right now, let's head down to Washington

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