Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, Barack Hussein Obama discussed on Why Is This Happening? with Chris Hayes
Shade on twitter. But he just wrote this piece. It was like Bernie. Sanders would be a disaster. And it's not like the argument. You could make an argument. That says here's an argument. Grounded the data for some weaknesses Bernie. Sanders would have as a general election candidate right legit and I think you can write a good version of that for basically every Deborah Sir Derek jeter candidate but the idea that like anyone fucking nose with any shorty. He's just matting to me. And it's across the spectrum it's like everyone's been rotted with pundit brain even the most radical people that I follow on. Twitter are talking about it in these like ridiculous people use cliches about like electability ability. And it's like I just want to be like no one knows you knows no and I'll tell you why it does. It scares me and I. It scared me after these focus groups is how many people so you know. I asked WHO's definitely voting for Donald Trump and I only got one or two hands per focus group and then I would say who's definitely voting for the Democratic nominee and and I only got a couple more hands so that's a bunch of people who are either waiting to see who the Democratic nominee is or in the case of the Florida group might not vote although most of them said they were going to try to in two thousand twenty so every abilities bullshit. But it's like there's a whole group of people that told me it actually depends on who the nominee sissy whether they're going to vote for Donald Trump or not right but what you're right that the measuring is incredibly so the problem with that is if you take it one step forward. It's like if there's ten people in the room and like there's two of them say definitely and there's eight it might not be the same candidate for the eight. Well that one might get three when Mike at Three one like a two and like God knows what will magic insight you would have to have. And I I I. I saw it unfold because in the Phoenix Group. The Pundit Group They Romney Clinton does the Romney voters and they all talked about. Why is the Democratic Credit Party moving so far to the likely one guy said to me? He's like look. I'm a former Republican. I Hate Donald Trump. I just want to vote for a normal Democrat and the Democratic Party. Hardy has put up Joe Biden. WHO's way too old and doesn't seem like he used to seem when he was in the Obama White House interesting and then to socialists in Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren? Is there anyone else in that group. Oddly was the only group that had heard of people to judge of course And they've kind of like someone repeat and stuff like that and I don't know if faced with Donald trump versus Bernie sanders what those Arizona voters do. Yeah but then you go up to Milwaukee and a couple of people in that group were the trump voters. s- told me that in in sixteen they voted for Bernie. Mary and they like Bernie in what they don't like is politicians who seem like they've been in Washington forever and at the same and for those people I'm like I actually actually could see Bernie being a stronger candidate than Biden in this group. But I don't know how to measure the different numbers that's my point. My point is like you can write the there are different parts of the coalition that I think different nominees would activate and repel. Yeah it bothers me that we have not. We've come to a point. The process where there's not a nominee who can obviously appeal to all of these groups. I will say yes although I mean everyone has weaknesses and strengths right. But I do as we're narrowing down. Oh God part of that also was just like the way politics works. I mean look I I was having this conversation with my my brother who works in. I think you know. He's visit Obama Guy and worked in politics. Working Politics is whole adult life. I'm like look I can make confident pronouncements on certain things like if you were running for Congress in the upper west side as a strong anti Zionist Ziona supporter of like. I think you'd have some stability. There are certain things like if you were running to be senator from Wyoming on a reparations for African Americans platform like I. Don't I think that would probably not be great. Like they're certainly at the edges of the Bell Curve Right. There are some things where it's like. I don't think that's going to help you. But but once you get into the place that I feel like we're in where you're talking about these sort of different trade offs like the Tucson suburbs versus the white working class us of Wisconsin. It's just to me. It just seems like the level of analysis needed to make some kind of cogent sophisticated prediction of the trade offs. Offs is not really in anyone's capacity. So no one should be voting on it. Yeah I mean I do think I I never wanNA throw it out as a consideration because the other thing to keep in mind. That is a big part of what matters here. In general is the candidate their message how they frame everything right like Bernie Sanders wins the nomination and says you know now. I'm the Democratic Socialist leader of America. And that's why I'm running in. It's going to be a campaign about big government ideology and stuff like that. I think he's going to have a pretty tough time. Right Bernie Sanders wins the nomination in and runs as the independent from Vermont. Whose wants to expand social security and fights social security taking on corruption establishment and both parties in Washington for a long time suddenly? So you're like Oh that's a message yet. I and same thing with Joe Biden right like if you know. Joe Biden has a general election message. That could work Warren to warrant to. I mean what I just said. For Bernie's earnings message is actually something that weren't do quite well. Yeah but I think the danger is thinking because really doesn't matter at all we should all just like say whatever we want to say and not try to persuade. No I totally agree. You're doing but no I'm just too because there's this spectrum. Some people were just like refused to concede that there's any distance between like what ones policy commitments are or substantive vision of what a America do and like the politics of it like there's no oh difference just like that's just not true the way work anywhere anytime in any society anywhere like like. Hey take it from us. We ran ran a black guy named Barack Hussein Obama a couple years out of the Illinois State Senate in everyone points to that and says well Obama won so anything can happen but it wasn't like like that was hard chose his messages very carefully. He chose his policies very carefully. He chose how he presented himself to the country very carefully. Like it wasn't a very easy thing to D- yeah and there's also a certain amount of like I think part of it too with Obama I mean Barack Obama's very good at projecting the image that was unifying. Let a lot of different people. See what they wanted to see him and part of being a good politician doing that right because you know if you need seventy million alien votes those seventy million people don't all agree with each other in fact hosts at that they don't they have lots of things so you're trying. I like your kind of running. It's not a con but you're you're a good politician is trying to get as many people as possible to think that they agree with that person. It's insane that we're having this conversation right now because it seems like the most basic rule of politics and yet it feels like watching the conversation. Unfold that a lot of people have forgotten the necessity of persuasion as the cornerstone of politics. Right because I took apart. Because we're like demographics are destiny and where polarized country and so what we you know elections are more of a census than they are an actual election. And whoever you are in your identity that just dictates how you're GonNa vote and that's it so we might as we'll just get to the election and that right and that's not the case right. I mean it's the problem with that I think is that it's it's running together two different things. That's as as a generalization that's pretty descriptively accurate but elections are one of the margins right. So if that's true gets you. It gets you most of the way right. So that's true of ninety. Out of one hundred people in some cohort. The election is one in the last ten. That's that's where like all this stuff matters a tremendous amount. So it's like when you're describing American politics all all of those sort of gross generalizations. They're always oversimplified but they really are true about polarization it about demographics in geography. It's crazy the density. Divide all all that stuff. It's all true. It's just that operationalizing it to win. An election is a very different thing because the people that are definitely with you because of all these things like. That's it's not where you win the election. Well and their response to that is usually. Why do we have to care about these? These swing voters. Why can't we just like? Let's just like register more people in turn up more people like and you should do that too but the Miami grew the drop off odors. Reminded me that it's like those people were not just waiting for someone to come along and say. Oh Oh I have this this big progressive agenda or any kind of policy agenda to get them to vote again. It's like very complicated right you know. They're like they're very cynical. It's GonNa take a lot outta work a drop off voters and this is the thing I said. Before but TROPPO voters in particular third party voters. People always think that conflict model the third party voter as like. Oh well if you did this you Kapila off these persons making a decision in this society in this political system to vote third party has by definition heterodox politics six that are complicated and oftentimes extremely interesting and might be quite beautiful and profound. But there's something going on there that's just going to not necessarily be you like some lever can be switched to bring them on board and look some of these people end up voting on things that would drive us all insane right just like the character of the person or something they like about whatever but ever liked hillary. There's a lot of that. The hopeful thing is when I was talking to activists in Florida talk to people who are organizing a Venezuelan community community in Miami that had swung like twenty points to the Republicans in two thousand eighteen and none of these people wanted to. It was tough getting these people to vote. They didn't in politics. There are very cynical and what they did is they started to get them to try to get into care about local issues and so there was a garbage heap in their community that was smelling really bad and they told them if you organize and you get a new city council you can do something about the garbage heap and they organize in there on that local issue and suddenly they're like while we had power. We did something locally and they're like well now you can actually change something in Tallahassee and now you can actually change something in Washington. DC and organizing a lot of cynical disappointed disaffected voters offers locally around. Local issues actually could be the solution and that's a much longer term issue. I mean part of the thing that I think we just always gloss over is like you know this is true in the UK you know. It's called Labor Party for reason it was a party that was literally built off the backs of the trade union movement. That's what it was. That's institutionally the left. Throughout most of the Western world. Since essentially the late nineteenth century you know married to attach to built on the infrastructure of labor movement. And it's not an accident that in two thousand ten those governors came in the Midwest and just like took the hammer to organized labor and that those estates have also gone more Republican that those two things are absolutely related. So what we end up looking for. We look for campaigns to do this kind of work that is the work of much longer term institutions used to be labored. And and you know it is a long term project. But when I talked to Stacey Abrams she talked about how they organized Georgia for her campaign and she said we would have our people go into communities where no one had gone for a long time. She's like I wouldn't even show up because then it's about me. Asking for vote is a politician. It would be about. What are your local issues? What do you care about? And we were on the ground like a year in advance talking to them about what issues they really cared about. And she's like we tried to make get so that it wasn't oh healthcare and jobs like the generic stuff but like was there a specific issue in your community that you really cared about and we organized around that and you build those relationships at the beginning inning of a campaign and then you don't show up a week before Election Day and say I'm going to go to a place where a lot of politicians go and ask for people s for people so so I do think that is one one way to do the work of organizing turning some of these people how much do you think the campaign matters right. So there's like there's demographics and those trends are real. They're real and they're driving a lot of stuff. Then there's kind of like organizing and then there's like the campaign the message. How much do you think that matters back to our conversation about how you know? Ninety percent of it is baked but the ten percent. That isn't baked. The campaign matters an enormous amount. And so I do think it matters on the margins but those margins are everything and I think we talked about the campaign. There's a couple of different aspects to that. There is where you decide to compete where it used decide to organize where you put your campaigns resources and then of course the candidate the candidate story who the candidate is and I do think because so many people on a lot of these voters I talked to were like this have divorced the issues. They care about from politics politics right. Because they haven't seen politics made a difference in their make a difference in their lives. They judge candidates and their vote. Choice largely by the person's character character and part of what you see with trump is trump has not delivered a lot but some of them give him credit just for fighting because they think no one has delivered in a while but he's fighting my fight and so then it becomes very important for the Democratic candidate to be someone who saying I'm fighting your fight at..