Kevin, Vice President discussed on Roe Conn


Break and then the flex week whatever they caught I Kevin allows with us he's a doctor thank god we need one virus hunter and vice president for research at echo health alliance and can we were talking last week about about the hime virus and where does that word where it's moving to how it's how it is exploding China now but we are we had our first confirmed case I think last week we were talking and now we have this we had the Chicago case what other five in the United States now total yeah that's right and road thanks for having me again there's there's currently five imported cases that I know of in the United States so one of the things that Chinese officials are saying about the hunt virus is that they are warning people that you might be contagious before you actually exhibit the symptoms is that a is that true and how much of that that seems like a incredibly dangerous way to create this vector yeah you know that is a that is a challenge when there is transmission before people know they're really sick it does happen with flu it happens with cold as well so it's not completely unusual for a virus to have some some level of transmission before you're really you know in betting coughing and sneezing I there's a lot we don't know I think you know that's a suggestion I think some of the some of the data might suggest that's the case then we heard that you know coming out of some officials and some experts so I think it hasn't really been proven but I think people are suggesting that could be the case because the corona virus is a cold virus right this one just happens to be incredibly Verrall yeah there's a diversity a crown of ours is I mean you know sars of course with the corona virus which was similar to this a new emerging crowd of ours that the human population and never seen before but there are several other coronaviruses may have names catchy names like two two nine he market things like that that are that are typically more upper respiratory kinda cold like you know infections well I don't I don't mean to be flippant about this because obviously there are at least eighty two people dead twenty eight hundred infected in China at last count but the but it is important to market days it is important to give them a name is more for people to be able to connect with what it was like that was it a decade ago the H. one N. one virus and paper like waves what is that what is that it sounds to scientific sense too much doesn't have a real but when you when you you know give it a name wanted to be a coming from a region or whatever happens even corona virus I think is a little a little heavy for people to understand the the real the real issue the real differential here as I see it need and then please tell me if I'm right arm wrong because I'm you know just looking at this that it's that the the death rate here seems to be consistent at about three percent and as as a three percent death rate that's three times with the flu death rate is but that's certainly not like a pandemic where have the people are going to get it are going to die kind of kind of outbreak right right yeah we're right now the case fatality rate as we say is it is about three percent which means other cases we know of right of the confirmed cases three percent have been fatal but you know I I take that with a little caution you're right it's pretty much as new numbers come out this they've sort of the done nominator in the naming their numerator balance each other out and so we're staying around three percent but there is out perhaps you know there's a large number of cases that are very smiled and not symptomatic of those people are getting tested well that would even push the rate even lower because there's more cases than there are people dying so these numbers are going to keep changing you know but but you're right it's not an extremely pathogenic and Lisa virus like say you bowl is where you know thirty forty percent of the people could could die last week when we were talking to you because you are the expert in this kind of the the virus hunter so you're out there looking for things like that use said and when we talk about your concern this is relatively new in that you know it's it is exponential in terms of numbers and and in China nowhere else at this point really I mean these these these little sporadic places are pretty pretty stable you are at a seven and A. at a one to ten scale of being alarmed I am always at twelve I'm a wanted tense about everything your to seven in that you know that that put me to a fourteen because you know you're an expert are you still as alarmed you where where are you now one to ten I'm about I think I was a little bit on on heightened alert when we spoke last week I think that was even before the first case of the tech did and go but you know I'm about the same level right now I mean I think it's it's an evolving rapidly evolving situation obviously the numbers keep changing it is moving around quite a bit but like you said there there's room for optimism which is you know one yeah we're actually a quite a bit ahead of of where we were in terms of the science in treatment and vaccine that we were with sars said because of the lesson with sars it kind of gives a bit of a head start and thinking about how do you control and deal with some of these new viruses that are related so I think that that's a positive thing I think like you said the mortality rate is relatively low compared to some other emerging diseases that's a positive thing and you know there's a lot of great people around the world public health experts working to contain this and that you know I think there's a lot of fear right now but when you're we're looking at the numbers and and what we know well it's scary it's not catastrophic at this point Kevin I'll talk to you next week we'll see if we moved up we've gone down thank you very much appreciate it thank you ever is hunter and preserve research at echo health alliance all right something that is actually making.

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