United States, AMY, UK discussed on Nature Podcast
And if you can spare a couple minutes just to fill in those questions, it's only like three or four of them. That will really help us out in the future. This is not the last one we're going to do one more right. We're going to do to more. The tenth of July will be the last episode of Crow NEPAD in its current situation, and then we'll move into the nature August, and that's also not to say that there's no reason this couldn't come back. Back Right, so we do this because it's not true the time trying to make sure we can bring the best that we can to. You guys to the listeners at home, but right now this feels like the sensible move and we'll have to see how this goes. Because I think it says in the intro to every one of these episodes. We just don't really know how this pandemic is going to turn out still. I think there's something that amy said nothing ever according. It's safe to say we're in a different sort of chapter now and I do feel like you know in the beginning I. Really had no idea what was going to happen but I. Think now I have. Have a little bit more of an idea. Because before we had no past precedent to look to, and now we do, which is sort of interesting now. He can kind of see the trajectories of various countries in using the past. Maybe there's a little bit more guessing that we can do absolutely when the stops being the last epidemic and starts becoming the last three months. We've kind of got current past as it were that we can start to refer to. Yeah, there's a number of Nice websites out there from different outlets that kind of show graphs of different countries in their trajectories, so for example and I can put these links in the show notes but Financial Times has any. Any kind of series of graphs from different countries and one way that they look at it is they measure what are the excess develops time compared to previous years and you can see there. You know in some places like Norway Iceland in Israel. They don't really have a huge number of sex. So that says to me. They managed to really contain their outbreaks pretty swiftly. Other places have a very sharp mountain like the UK. Italy Spain huge climbs. Their deaths are fifty percent over usual fifty thousand more deaths than usual around there, and then you get the US, which is different than anywhere else where like in Europe? We have a very quickly escalating mountain, but we've got more of. Of like a mountain, range and fact right now, cases are going up in twenty seven states. So when I was saying we know a little bit more now I think if you're in a country like Italy where they're really seeing a huge decline, chances are. We'll see like what we saw in Singapore Germany. Sometimes there are big surges, but if the things that helped the outbreak to begin with are in place, then presumably, they will continue to stay in place so some of these graphs as well, and they're all kind of three sort of broad categories. The I can kind of divide the gross into as the graphs which have a kind of a tiny little bump that doesn't seem. Seem to make a huge difference like the fastest countries you talked about. And then you have this very characteristics of exponential huge spike that then also drops pretty quickly, and that's the way you know. The UK is currently sitting in a lot of European countries, and you look at the US and it sort of it is hard to sort of walkout what it represents because it is just like undulating up and down and up and down and up. It seems to be congratulated going down, but it's hard to I. Guess Really Understand what's happening in the states if you look at just sort of the whole of the United States in one graph, because what's happening in each individual state. State can be really quite drastically. Different on those graphs could look very very different issues to look at different states, which I guess makes sense because they have different governesses, and they have different public health sponsor in different places. Yeah, it's a big country, so it's GonNa look a little bit different there and that's one thing we don't see if there is a drop, it's not a rapid drop like it is elsewhere. What we see right now is that where as in March and April it was New York. That was just skyrocketing. Now we see is California Texas and Florida are kind of leading the way in rising number of cases, Arizona's distinct, and that has got such a steep. Steep increase right now they're outbreak is doubling every twelve days. Compare that to say in New York. where the outbreak seems to be doubling roughly every four hundred sixteen days just to say, it's not increasing at the same rate in eleven states it's decreasing and the other. One's is sort of hard to say so like you were saying. If you break it up, it changes depending on the state and this claim that the US has a lot of cases because of a lot of tests is just untrue. There's various measures to look at that. We've been at around five percent positive, even though the number of tests has gone way up so that part's not true some other. Things that people are pulling out of the stats, and I say people because the US CDC and health department, really leading the way as far as displaying data, but there's been a number of universities and also news that let's set of short. Pick up the slack here so you know. John Hopkins is one of various places that are tracking say racial disparities so from the. The data we have, it looks like even though black people are thirteen percent of the US. Population they account for twenty three percent of the deaths, so that disparity is looming pretty large and the other thing we might want to talk about is us has remained around twelve percent of all global deaths for quite a while, but Latin America is coming up pretty heavily. They've. They've been coming out for the last few weeks or so. At this point, they account for more than half of the new deaths in the world. So that's really disconcerting. Another eight percent of the world's population, the biggest surge there is in Brazil and Mexico is right behind that those both had leader is that we're really downplaying the seriousness of this pandemic and that's playing. Playing out now, but also in countries, where I've talked about how they put in really early, strict measures, Karoo they're still doing pretty poorly right now, and it's going up. It's pretty disconcerting. Those the ones that we stood out to me. Amy Is the ones that say did put efforts in place very very quickly..