Merrill Kelly, Jacob Junis, LA discussed on VSiN Best Bets

VSiN Best Bets


Or just in a treating spot in general? Well, you mentioned your brewers. I always look for line flips from the opening numbers. There's a couple of them. And the Dodgers game with pep out on the mound for LA, the youngster. I was on a Murphy on him last week with Woodruff on the other side. It looks like the brewers are getting the early action there. Same thing with the D backs giants game. That line flip feedbacks were the early favorite with Merrill Kelly, seeing now Jacob junis getting a lot of the handle there early and that line's flip now San Francisco a slight favorite. So again, the overnight markets, I think I'm at the point now. I wasn't betting a lot of money lines or sides or even totals. But I'm at the point now where the grind of the season is over and we're now the finishing kick. And so I take the money lines a lot more seriously, especially with the teams with nothing to play for going against teams with everything to play for. I thought Seattle against the angels, even though Otani was on the mound, was a great example. That's Seattle was a slight underdog. And I thought that was a mispriced with how well LA's played. So look at teams with a lot to play for against themes with very little to play for and try to find the pitching matchups that make sense and try to look for those overnight line flips because those tend to be the sharper sides and you're not going to win every game that you bet on a sharp side. But in baseball, if you bet ten of them, the odds are you're going to win 5 or 6 and sometimes that's good enough to be profitable in a given week. So I think that's where you look right now at this stage of the season. And also, I mean, the props have been awesome. The nurseries have been awesome. I think the nerf is only get more valuable as we get closer to the end of the year. And those games get a lot more intense in the first inning than they do in June and July. So I'm not going to change anything though. I'm going to keep trying to find my spots and hope the line movement agrees with me and hope we're on the right side of some of these lucky breaks because most of these games come down to the wire as you know, Greg. And sometimes you just don't want to finding a lot of value on the overnight and typically with any game you're going to see a little bit of light movement, even if it's just like 5 or so sense. That's something to always take a look at as well because I mean, there have been quite a few games in which I wound up having nothing overnight. You wind up seeing a ten to 15 cent line move instead of getting like a plus one 50 or now getting a plus one 65 to a plus one 70 on that underdog and all of a sudden the implied odds they wind up being in your favor now and I think that that's always something that is so important to take a look at so we are in agreement there. Always taking a look at the overnight and then how it winds up pricing out in the a.m. that is something that's very important to Jared. You do a great job in just so many different markets.

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