President Trump, Rick Newman, Yahoo discussed on Lee Matthews
Win reelection in twenty twenty and that's a boost from the economy, especially if Americans still vote with their wallets in mind, Rick Newman, senior columnist at Yahoo. Finance has been looking at math formulas from the center for politics. Rick. What's up here? President Trump's approval rating net rating is generally in ten category. Which is to say latest survey. I looked at his approval was forty two no correction forty three percent. But it was fifty five percent. So that would be minus twelve on net. And then the center for politics says that if you're in that range you need to minimum of two percent GDP growth and preferably higher. If you're gonna reach that wrestle two hundred and seventy electoral votes, and guess what? Most forecasts for growth in twenty twenty when this will matter. Are four two percent or less there. Some saying maybe it's going to be more like one point five percent in twenty twenty. And there are also some people who think we could be the beginning of a recessive by that. So what Trump is going to need in the middle of twenty twenty. He's a boost in economic growth, and it's not quite right. That could come from. All right. So if GDP is the key factor here, then what he suggests the president do to help himself or help the country. Well, I think the very first thing he could do in. This regard is resolve the trade disputes with China, and I get you kinda get the feeling that he realizes this. I mean, he has threatened to some more draconian things, but not actually them even though deadline some have come and gone. And he basically has not done some of the things he said he would do like impose even higher tariffs on Moore Chinese imports. So I think if he could some of the waters on trade that would certainly help CEO confidence and business confidence a little bit. There's another thing. President Trump is very clearly trying to do which is job own the Federal Reserve into cutting interest rates, and he'd even trying to get these two guys appointed to the federation to the making committee at the fed. That's Herman Cain. Stephen Moore who he knows advocate for lower rates for cutting rates. He sort of wants to have his surrogates at the fed arguing inside the fed the case for cutting rates. I don't know if he's going to get that. But it would fit were to cut rates in late twenty nineteen or in the first six months of twenty twenty it probably would stimulate the economy. There's a chance it would be short lived in. It could ultimately do more harm than good. But President Trump doesn't worry about the long-term very much. He just worries about getting what he wants the short term speaking with senior columnist Rick Newman at Yahoo finance. He's written a piece entitled what Trump needs to win in twenty twenty and according to some calculations he'd need better GDP growth to help. Chances of cheating, the two hundred seventy electoral votes needed to win the presidential election the potential for the growth, he needs is it there. The if proper levers are pulled in an economy. That's what ten years into an expansion. I think that's the question. Maybe not it's possible that the potential for that GDP growth is actually not there. We got a lot of stimulus in twenty eight from the Trump tax cuts, and there was also an increase in federal spending. And the the stimulus from the tax coach is basically teetering out. It's sort of peaked in the second quarter of last year. We know that GDP growth for the year two point nine percent. That's that's good. But that's not fantastic. And if you think well, you sell your wallet on stimulus and the best you got out of it was two point nine percent GDP growth that wasn't much. We know now that, you know, congresses split between Democrats and Republicans Trump is not going to get any friendly legislation through congress in the next year and a half. I mean, I guess the one exception the one area where there is some kind of bipartisan interest with the infrastructure Bill, but it seems impossible that Democrats would go along with any kind of Trump priority this point and by the way. Trump has not really proposed and infrastructure Bill is just kind of proposed us in its general way without us without a real legislative proposal. So I don't think there is going to be any lever that Trump or anybody on his side is going to be able to Paul. Thanks, rick. Rick Newman senior columnist at Yahoo. Finance, by the way. CBS news says President Trump is expected to report today that his campaign raised more than thirty million dollars in the first quarter. That's more than twice what the top two. Democrats have raised combined ninety nine percent of Mr. Trump's donations have been two hundred dollars or less. It is fourteen minutes. Now after the.