Fred, Asymptomatic, Ryan Gorman discussed on PM Tampa Bay with Ryan Gorman
I'm Ryan Gorman with me this evening. James Berland er on the board, Coming up in 806 will talk to Florida politics publisher Peter Schorsch. Lots of touch on when it comes to the state, the corona virus outbreak and also just the politics of all of it. How the governor has been responding tall of that phone number is 809 69 93. 50 to let me get a Fred in Tampa, Fred, Thanks for the call. Yes. Thank you for taking my call. Uh, I'm not as enthusiastic about wearing facemasks as you are on way. I'm not enthusiastic about it. It sucks. I just think it's necessary. First of all, we have an area of agreement there. There is no absolute prevention. There's no inoculation, and there's no real cure. Is that correct? Right? Yes, that's correct. Uh, it is my opinion that this will Paris will move Stand about as much chance of stopping this virus is stopping the winding It will move through the population until it reaches now. I would disagree with that ability. Some kind of stability like every other virus, some kind of stability with herd immunity. Currently what you're seeing are seems to me What you see is the death rates pretty much leveled off the clock and the actual mortality rate has gone down, down down. Let's just let me ask you this, but now it's under two. Now it's under do 2%. It was a do herd immunity best we could hope for. Max. We could hope for would be to take the masks off and build up our herd. Immunity. Okay, Let me ask you this friend. Let's step through this herd. Immunity is between 50 to 70% of the population. Okay, that it's a wide range. There are a lot of factors that play into it. Right, like somewhere in there. We're a country of let's just put the number and we'll do a nice round number 301,000,000. Yeah, OK, so so so. Around there. You need 50 to 60% to get it and then let's say even will go on the low end half a percent case fatality rate. I want to do that math and figure out how many deaths were talking about with Liu. As with the yearly know the flu is 0.1% difference. This is five times is deadly. So do that math because you don't have the range of testing that, you know That's not true. That's with that's with that's with the asymptomatic. Caseload factored in. Estimated in what you're seeing right now, when you see like 2.3% when you see like 2.3% something like that. That's that's the current case fatality rate, 4% something like that. That's the current rate with the testing that we've done in cases that we know of five and dropping, but the CD right right 20 times. Many people? Yes. When you went That's in the factory ization that that's been in the factory ization that that's been, in the estimation for a long time. Now, if you factor in all the people that potentially have it, even the ones that we don't know you're still talking about 1/2 percent toe 1% case fatality rate, So take that number take the 60% of 330 million number. And then tell me that that end number that final results is something acceptable for America. What Maybe went a little over, Fred said. There, I'll repeat it just one more time. And then I got to take a break. If you're talking herd immunity, actually, let me pull up. Hang on. Let me let me pull up my notes here because I had this laid out the other day, and it was relatively simple. Or people understand? So here 50 to 70%. That's what you would need for herd immunity. Somewhere in there again. Some places it might be a little lower. Some regions it might be a little higher just depends on the population lots of different factors. This is going back like a week or two, but just go with the numbers. Say you've got 2.5 1,000,000 cases. Assumption is the real number 10 times that 12 times that that's about the range that we're figuring right now. So you're talking 25 30 million people or about 7.5% 8% of the population. You already have. 130,000 deaths. If the case fatality rate is 1/2 percent of 1% which has been the range for a while now. Forget about the numbers that you're seeing the numbers that you're seeing that a 2.5% that's a 4% in some areas that's based on the cases that we know of. The 0.5 to 1% range is the estimation, including people who are asymptomatic, but we don't know about You've already got 130,000 dead. And you're talking about in this estimation. 78% of the population infected You multiply that To reach what you would need for full herd immunity. You're talking about a number of debts entirely unacceptable. For the greatest country on this planet. You're talking about a number of deaths. You know how much damage that would do not just to the fabric of this country. But to the economy. The ripple effects that would have Stop repeating the nonsense that you see online and here on cable news or even perhaps some other shows on the station Herd immunity is not a realistic option. It's not gonna happen. That's not the path we're going to take. Sweden didn't go forward with it. The UK didn't go forward with it. Why? Because they realize how quickly how bad it would be. Right coming up next. I got a lot to get to you. I want to get some of the.