Bloomberg, Congress, Democrats discussed on Bloomberg Politics, Policy and Power

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Coming up in this hour, a federal court set to decide a case on capping political donations it could have ramifications for future fundraising, plus the first bipartisan climate Bill in a decade was introduced in congress this week and will serve as a framework when Democrats take over the house in January, but I the US Canada and Mexico signed a new trade deal championed by President Trump to replace the quarter century old NAFTA. Pat capping a year of intense negotiations offering a glimmer of certainty amid rising global tensions over trade. The president spoke about the deal at the g twenty summit in ways Aires in the United States. The new trade back will support high paying manufacturing jobs and promote greater access for American exports across the range of sectors, including our farming, manufacturing and service industries. Okay. And took a year of intense negotiations still has to be. Ratified by lawmakers in three countries that it has been signed. So what does that mean? For trade, the markets your wallet. We bring in Bloomberg's global economy reporter Andrew my ADA here in our Bloomberg ninety nine one studios in Washington DC, Andrew we've been talking about this for a long time. It's it's almost exciting to be able to say, hey, look, they've put ink to paper. But congress still does have to ratify it. So I gotta ask you with the Democrats holding the majority in the house is that going to create a hiccup a hold up a problem or is everybody on board. Now, you know, I think it's gonna be tough. I don't think it's a slam dunk by any means. I think it's a difficult three point shot from the corner with the defenders had in Donald Trump. There you have it. You know, I it will be difficult. I'm just still trying to understand why if I'm a democratic congressman or congresswoman why vote for a Donald Trump branded trade deal. Then I think what happens if it looks like it's not going to get approved. I do think that the president will probably dangle the threat of withdrawing again, and then I think that that will shift the calculus again. So bottom line is. This is definitely not a done deal. It's thoughts to get through congress, and it won't be necessarily easy to get get through congress. Why again, I just I'm struggling to see why why the Democrats would would vote for this deal. I mean, they didn't vote for TPP in that was a deal that their their own president had negotiated. They will be asking for changes and ambassador lighthizer, the US trade Representative has said he doesn't want to reopen negotiations. But the the Democrats are going to want more gains for American workers. They're gonna wanna be able to say that we pushed President Donald Trump to the wall on this, and we extracted more concessions, and then you get in a situation where you know, the Mexicans may have to cut serve come back to the negotiating table or offer further concessions, then you get into the whole situation of call Texan Mexico. I just think it will be it will be quite complicated. And it will be it will be a long slog. Now. I gotta ask you because you have been following this from the very beginning. And and we've been planting and speculating and trying to figure out how to get from point a to point b and here, we are what changes did you expect along the way? Did you expect many did did it? I'll meet. Your expectations as the person who has been covering this from the very beginning of the idea. I I would say that the deal that we ended up with looks a lot like what I was expecting. It wasn't what I was expecting about halfway through the negotiations ended up roughly where I thought it would land and bad is to say that they have modestly tightened the rules of origin. So basically, the amount of car content that needs to be in in vehicles. They've done some tweaking around the dispute settlement, this is not a massively changed agreement. The shadow of the original NAFTA will still be there today. That said there was a time. When when they when the US came out with their so called poison pill. Proposals. Were I thought it would be a much different more radically changed agreement. That's not what we ended up with. Is the fast track authority expiring at the end of this congress? Continue to next through the next gun. It's going to go through the next congress. That was actually a renewed this year. Yeah. So that that's not so much an issue. I think really the issue is. What is Nancy Pelosi? You're gonna do. I mean, what what what? Under the under under fasttrack. They're they're limited to the number of amendments. They can make and things like that. Yes. That's correct. Yes. Okay. So what do we see? Now, we're we are having to see three different countries. Ratify it in the US. Maybe why is this hiccups? But what about Mexico? What about you? I think I think the Canada's not so much an issue because. You know, if you have a majority in in Canada. You should be able to get it through fairly easily. If it does drag into past October two thousand nineteen in Canada because more of an issue because there's an election there Mexico. I I'm really gonna it's really going to be interesting. There's a new president there. He's a populace president. You know, he it's not really entirely clear how he's going to govern. So really be watching closely. What happens in Mexico? Thank you Andrew that is Bloomberg trade reporter, Andrew Majeida. You're listening to Bloomberg politics policy and power on Bloomberg radio coming up a bipartisan climate Bill introduced this week has percha Lee no chance of passing during.

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