Kentucky, TOM, Kentucky Derby discussed on The Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast
We talked about this before I think if it had disposed sort of been a whole home field, it would even be a little bit more difficult to get excited it. But at least the Kentucky Derby really has a big star in it and the day before should be a pretty interesting race both both Joe and Scott on the morning show mentioned that they were both picking Tis the law and then they both. Looks and said unless he draws bad and then Joe said, you know he was going with an art collector and Scott said, he would go with honor a p in that situation I guess I mean everybody talks about the one hole is that really the only draw bad for a for a horse like Tis, the law do you think? I mean. You know pretty much. I mean you know pro post to it'd be no picnic, but it's better than post one but you know he's so good. I think a little bit is that And you know and I. Sort of like speculated about this I mean I I watch this racist I watch that traverse race and you know he's on he's under a hold for Manny Franco a little bit I mean settling on his own but that horse has so much natural speed. He's just faster and faster my and just you know getting better racehorse and and really just shown incredible speed or you can go back and watch his holy bull in February. You know he'd beats Eddie Indian so the I heard in that race before Fraser. Puts the brakes on to get off the inside. So to me if if if his law br draws the one bowl at that unfortunate circumstance happened. So I think they're going right to lead. They're just gonNA pull a ghost APP or and just say, Hey, you know try to catch to be can and he'd still be a huge threat to lead wire. So you know I'm I'm a I'M NOT GONNA get too caught up in position draw you know but I I still think a two horse race and I'm GonNa Be Picking I. A lot well now I mean obviously leaves us with with art who we got to see Gallup around the track on Thursday morning and You know there's been a lot of really neat Tom jury stories I think he's kind of become. One of the stories obviously has the laws of big part of the story and you know throughout Derby Week. These these kind of smaller stories develop on a lot of the horses but I think for for a lot of folks and it goes beyond Kentucky. At this point I think Tom is become kind of a rooting interest for them. Yeah. I think it'd be Real I. Think you're absolutely correct about that. I think probably during junior I mean really just It's a great story because he's such a real well respected horseman. There's never done this before and with our collect or it's really interesting to me. I wanted to speak about like what kind of trippy GonNa get because one thing about Authentic who I think everybody assumes is going at least have a head in front and early on he hasn't broken that well from the Gaijin a lot of races he broke better in the Haskell but there's a little bit of concern I. Think if if our clutch brake sharply he could be showing early and you know I could be somewhere to the bluegrass. He's never for by he's going to be up close from the SARS otherwise I'd be a little bit worried about his trip if he was like two or three lengths off the pace you know really. Because he has a lot of speed. So the I've talked with Emily from optics yesterday and I mean I think every you can't have the derby conversation without thinking about some longshots prices that you maybe want to get in there. But you know, have you kind of formulated any opinions on horses that might be twelve fifteen to one or higher? Yes. Sure. I'm looking at some more sit one. That intrigue that that traffic and and and and I mean, are you asking me who I am taking win rate? We'll get. there. Okay Well Yeah because I think that in traffic treats me because I think he's he's a horse that hasn't tactical speed is capable being imposition. I, like a horse like that did never finish his out of the money. He's been in the money and all starts this year and he's always right there in the mix turning for home. So I, think you know what they say. It's true. A lot of times the Horse in. Your. Your Position Attorney for hope is so important because there's just not a lot of horses making up ground in the fun in the stretch drive a in the model model quarter Derby. So horse like my traffic and Tracy from that perspective and the other one inch then I'm gonNA use underneath and my dodig wagers is thousand words and I know you know one thing with thousand words is his his races earlier this year were slow and he was just a real grinder that you just did wasn't able to run up on the pace but. He really showed improved speed last time I think that they had a little bit of aspirations for the lead and that share belief steaks and thousand words speed into the lead and he's thinking up for us. Jerusalem, who is one of best gate jockeys in America and I think edition of Jerusalem is is one hundred percent. If he breaks sharply thousand words is going to be up there in the top FOB. So to me, he has appeal as an exotic tinder. 'cause he could get the right trip who's going to win the Kentucky Derby James. I'm thinking honor at and I am one hundred percent like You know looking for a little bit of regression from fizzle off that traverse race because I am a hey, I mean I understand that his loss of worse to be and I do have some concerns with honore T I in that I'm hoping not too far back on the far turn because I just think he's GonNa be finishing fastest of all the stretch I'm encouraged by the fact that if you look at his running on, he has been able. To stay within, you know within a few months of the leaders his early pace is e one pace tastes. Ratings from net or in the nineties and I. Just think if he can get that trip you know like six or seven in the early going he's going to be in position to make his running the stretch I think that you you can already see it as workouts, Jason, where before that shared beliefs day he was working for a long and one to exchange. He worked at seven months nearly. Thirty. He wasn't working fast at all and those works. He's come back and put it in a fifty nine to change in a minute flat work and file for long and both those works. He's really galloping out strongly a the the next quarter mile, and he's just really turning the screws on and and he's got such a big long straw, that like I said if he can get position, I think he's got a chance out finish to the law and you know and I'll save a little bit with honor a p underneath an executives and tries as well. So you know I think it's between those two and I'm going to give the edge to honor AP. That, the only two jocks in the entire field have won the derby before I. Think it's Mike Smith and Javier Castellano. So you know. John Blanket generalize..