China, Italy, United States discussed on Democracy Now! Audio
I think is a proactive. Social distancing measures so the types of things. We're starting to see in the United States. Now GET STOPPING MASS EVENTS. Having people work from home and the like but they also had very intensive surveillance and very intensive contact tracing of cases that came in from. Who Bay province and elsewhere in China and that probably played a big role in why they didn't have an epidemic. So can you talk about the fact that it looks like both in China? It's hard to say we're saying there's good news out of China right now because of this terrible pandemic but the actual good news. That's coming out of China and South Korea as opposed to what we're seeing right now in Italy and now the United States were just beginning understand the scope of the outbreak here. Yes China clearly has been able to contain the disease at least temporarily. I think there's a big question of what happens as they start to dial back. All of the extreme measures they've taken in order to contain the disease and whether. We see a resurgence or whether they're excuse me whether they're able to do that. In a way that more gradually a more gradual dial dial back in a way that prevents the virus from resurging and in the country and Italy. Is You know I think? Italy's taking a similar course to China where it remains to be seen. How effective it is you know it is in Italy. It's very different. Culturally population is different and us were in a different part of the outbreak. And I think the hope is since we're early by doing things proactively canceling the NBA cancelling the NCAA tournament. Everybody working from home closing schools that we can get to a point where we're slowing the spread of this virus without having to have measures as extreme as we're taken in China Dr Steve Goodman if you talk about what's happened in Italy The horrific Turn of events there where the entire country is on lockdown where the medical system is clearly overwhelmed and then talk about the United States and this whole issue of flattening the curve a term. I think a lot of people are just beginning to hear right now. But what do you understand? Took place in Italy Well I haven't I don't have special expertise about Exactly what's going on Italy? But what is very very clear. Is that the The gree of spread and And present a has overwhelmed. The medical care system. That is very clear. So part of what's happening. There is an example of winning when an epidemic goes to its peak and is greater than the medical infrastructure. Can Take care of it and as you may know There have been extremely poignant. pieces Both tweets and and other forms of communication by Italian doctors who literally have with great distress talked about how they had to basically choose life and death for patients for whom they had to choose who to ventilate and who not to because they had a limited number of ventilators. So we don't want to get there in this country so again. It shows that the case fatality rate which ultimately is one of the numbers that that produces the most fear is a is a function not only how many cases or how many serious cases but how much can be absorbed and properly treated by the medical care system. And so that gets right into your second question which is about flattening the curve. The the goal of mitigation efforts now which is to obviously lower the number of cases and spread them out is to keep the number of cases to a level where the medical care system can adequately take care of each one where we have enough personnel where we have an offense leaders. We have enough. Icu beds we have enough beds in the hospital. Take care of everybody. Optimally and the idea of flattening the curve is taking a certain number of cases that would occur in a certain period of time and spreading it out over time for the peak is less and so it occurs over a much longer period of time and hopefully obviously also reducing the number of cases but this match both regionally and nationally between the number of facilities personnel beds and equipment This has to be matched with a number of cases that are in that area. It would be nice to hear from public health officials or national officials how they plan to shift resources. If in fact the medical care capabilities in any particular region is outstripped by the number of cases. But that's what flattening the curve is all about and that's what all of the measures just described by yourself and by Justin are attempting to do and this issue of respirators in the United States of ventilators of the access. Most people they do not want to go to the hospital even to their doctors offices Most people actually will survive this and it's like Flu and for many people it's mild and for children even less so though they can be carriers but this issue of overwhelming. The number of respirators ventilators hospitals around the country. Can you explain that well? Obviously the numbers are limited. I think we have on the order of a million beds and The actual number they're available in any one day about a third of that the number of ICU beds is a fraction of that. And I WANNA make a particular point that this is not just about caring for Cova patients the the number of covert patients entering. The system affects the care of other patients. So the kinds of things that we take for granted in terms of care of any of us for any serious disease is affected by the demand on the medical care system for the care of Kobe patients. So we are not Geared up as a society for the with the surge capacity to handle the number of potential Kovic patients that we would get if we didn't do anything so the kinds of things we're doing now are to keep the numbers below the surge capacity the limited very limited searched Bassetti that we have and again. This is not just a national issue. We can't just count up the number of national beds. We have to look at this regionally. The number of cases in New York City with a number of ICU beds in New York City and have facility to move those cases. If in fact those numbers don't match up Steve Goodman is associate dean at Stanford Medical School. Justin less ler is a professor at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Where continuing with them. After this break. Awesome the reckoner by radiohead. This is democracy. Now I mean goodman the British government says up to ten thousand people may now be infected by the corona virus on Thursday British Prime Minister. Boris Johnson called on people who are sick to self quarantine..