Kansas, TCU, Adrian Martinez discussed on Bet The Board
Kansas state is going to be successful and pull off the upset here, even with the rest advantage working in their favor, one of the things that this group does so well is their discipline. As far as the penalty yardage they yield, they make you move the ball methodically down the field against that defense. But the $100 million question, Adrian Martinez is clearly experienced to renaissance. You look at what he means this offense, both with his arm and his legs and that's been outstanding. But does Kansas state have enough firepower in your estimation to put a TCU defense on skates that has been a little bit vulnerable in recent weeks when they step up in class? I think that's the path. You envision Kansas state being able to play bully in the trenches on offense with deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez. And that's the one thing that's been interesting about Martinez is he didn't want to turn the ball over this year. And we saw coming into the Oklahoma game that their head coach was kleinman was like, let's let this thing rip a little bit more. It's great. You're taking care of the ball, but we need to be a little bit more aggressive. And we saw that for two weeks. Obviously, not the case against Iowa state. But I think with this specific match up, it's going to be those two guys legs on the ground. And right now, deuce Vaughn is really just picked up where he left off last year. He's averaging 1.9 yards per team play. Kansas state's offensive line 17th in opportunity. That's our ranking again that credits both the O line and the running backs gaining at least four yards when four yards are blocked. TCU defensively, 66th in adjusted line yards outside the top 100 and stuff right outside the top 50 in EPA per Russia out. Not only have they been poor stopping the run, but you couple that with what you guys talked about at the top of exerting all of this energy for big games. Meanwhile, Kansas states got the buy week just kind of waiting in the weeds. I think that's something that's interesting here. And the other thing that you have to consider is we've seen nothing but one way traffic both side in total. TCU opened as high as 6. We're now down to three and a half, some four still out there a couple places. Total. Whacked from 59 to 55 and a half yesterday at this time and then around 9 a.m. this morning, that second wave came through to 54 and a half through the largest key number in college football 55. Points are becoming more valuable and you think about why that's happening. It's twofold. As we record this Wednesday morning, 20 mph winds are in the forecast. Keep monitoring that obviously. But the gusts are approaching the 30 mph range. And you look at TCU, they pass the ball at a 10% higher rate than Kansas state. That's going to impact their style of play more. And that's one thing when you might not have access to the information on who's betting what you can start to read markets and deduce that this total coming down yields the idea that this game is going to be played a little bit more towards Kansas state's style. And just quickly on the other side of the ball, you're looking at a Kansas state defense. That's top ten and EPA per pass allowed. You're thinking to yourself TCU's air attack probably won't be as efficient this week because of those other elements. Brad, it's amazing. Pain picks on me for my bachelor party festivities and all of that. He was so banged up on Broadway. He doesn't even know what day of the week it is that we record these college football podcasts calling it a Tuesday, but he was on such a role. Did I say Tuesday? I had to continue to stay Tuesday. You sure did say too. No, no, no, no. No, I didn't. And I said the line moved this time yesterday. Well, we'll have to pull it back on the recording we'll throw the red challenge flag and see what we got. But I probably did. You're probably right. I agree with you, boys. When you look at this spot, it'll be interesting. If TCU can bring it here and cover this number, then we definitely have to talk about them not only being a legitimate dark horse for the national championship, but max dugan's case to be made for being in the thick of things for the Heisman Trophy, getting that much more substantial. However, when we look at a pair of unbeaten guys, it'll take us to Clemson, South Carolina, and a game I don't think anybody had circled on the calendar before the season started having massive implications in the ACC and national championship race. It's the Clemson tigers, nearly two touchdown favorites at home, as they'll welcome in the Syracuse orange, the total in this game 50 both side and total remain largely unchanged. When you look at Syracuse, they'll head to Clemson looking to extend their best start since 1987 and get out to 7 and notching its second top 5 win its last 18 tries. The only win so far in that span came over the same Clemson tigers back in 2017. Meanwhile, Clemson, they've been the model of consistency looking for a 38th straight home win to break the ACC record. They haven't exactly faced a very daunting schedule during that particular stretch. Brad, when you look at the Syracuse orange, hey, full marks the dino babers and what he's been able to accomplish so far this season. But I go through the resume, I look at the schedule they've played, one true road game so far this year at UConn. How difficult is it to assess, even with multiple data points for the orange? How good this team is right now and how much they should have been upgraded from where you had them to start to season. Yeah, I think it is, again, the number one factor here, here we are in the middle of October.