Tr- Trump, Ohio, Bernie Sanders discussed on FiveThirtyEight Politics


Vault Sanders disproportionately. No, I'm not. But it seems like you're explaining away a lot of a lot of this data with not much reason. Like why? Why we discounting this with because I think it's like pretty underwhelming that if you look at the candidates who are pulling it twenty percent, which is what burning is now nationally with a hundred percent name recognition those candidates. Do not have a very attract record. Oh, sure. Yeah. And so, you know, I think I'm going to be Frank. I think people are Bernie his third or fourth most likely nominee, which is not bad right in a field of seventeen twenty people. I think people are overcompensating for the notion that the underestimated Bernie in two thousand sixteen and therefore the commission wisdom is a little over tuned on his chances year, I'm making our name recognition. And apparently, we've done this work. I think Jeff and Laura doing different version. That's right. If you go back and just candidates for name recognition that matters a lot. And he's looking at the two best known candidates in the field. He's kind of correlation between once upon the other like that to me means like of the half of it roughly its name recognition right now. Then like most that crossover is coming from that half of it. And that. Elliot's less meaningful than the other half conclusion. It's too early. All right. So I think we've established that there are ways to disagree about the relationship between support for Biden and support for Bernie Sanders. But in conclusion, I wanna actually take a step back from our very candidate specific read of the first quarter of two thousand nineteen and ask the broad question of how much has the national environment changed since the midterms does still look like a super blue national environment. The way that it looked for much of two thousand seventeen two thousand eighteen have things reverted at all to the mean. I think the reverted a little bit. Yeah. Colleague other Nathaniel rakish looked at nothing new. One of the one of the leading tangles here. Fivethirtyeight looked at all these state legislative special elections, which are always happening. They're always a lot of these the Democrats are not doing as well as they were in in twenty eight hundred minutes, the midterms where they're having some pretty good results some mediocre results in like overall looks like it's a blue leaning environment as opposed to a strongly blue environment. I'm not really, quite sure. Like, why in the context of April twenty nineteen we care that much about the environment all that much? But it's kind of what you might. We'll keep checking in on it as we go through all this quarter. But is part of it because it's a different people have different mindset about the presidential election. They do about the midterm elections. See twenty eight teen the year of the woman and then the twenty twenty nineteen twenty twenty primary race. But we're all like, I don't know are the women doing partly because like you quench the thirst elected for having more checks and balances they have. Art from Claire over there. Whatever that was not are. That's just gross. I do wonder if there's a thirst quenching kung on where where some left leaning voters or just people voted for Democrats in twenty three in our like, all right? Did that? Yeah. But I don't know clear you were in Ohio for that store. You did what like people have a high of thing. No. I'm sort of curious talked to all of them. What I'm curious what your sort of read on the ground was like, we do have special elections the special election sort of matched. What we've the sparse generic ballot. Polling. We have to which shows Democrats with like five six seven point lead. How does that compare the two thousand seventeen it was plus fourteen? Right. We did end they plus eight and a half we first special elections. I mean, yes. Special election, plus thirteen or something. Well, this is different types of state legislative versus congressional. That's very yeah. Congressional ones are better usually, but we don't have any yet. So we're going based on what we have. So I think what's what's interesting. To look at is in places that tr- Trump won in Ohio in twenty sixteen. There was some on the sort of state and local level in twenty teen in elections. Democrats won back or like took historically Republican seats to which you know, the the Ohio Democratic Party says see look we can win it again. But I think there's a lot of caveat from people when they say, well, you're not gonna win those places unless it's democrat in the mold of Biden Biden shared Brown, who's not running, but like that kind of person. And so it's it's a pretty pretty heavy caveat. I mean, if we're talking about strategic voters like that too. I think Ohio Democrats are or or Ohio leaners, maybe voted Trump. Maybe voted Obama kind of not sure about I think people see the presidency very differently. Like, there's there's. Some sort of bifurcation happening ticket splitting if you will between that your presidential vote and higher voting. Joe local state elections. There will be a candidate to that point about matters. Who it is? There will be a candidate who will it's sort of take the place of the national political environment as the main sort of like jokes the position to Trump. It's also just just one small thing. I don't have any data for this. But the idea that because politics has become pop culture who you say you're supporting for president does become much more of a signifier than like, oh who vote for for like your state legislative race. No one talks about that. But you have you know, dinner party blowouts about who you're supporting ultra historically, we know that midterm and presidential elections are very different. They turn out different electorates. And I don't think from a starting point. Does anybody expect that? The national environment in twenty twenty would be like a plus nine democratic and related, right? One doesn't protect the other. No in obviously, occasionally, you have cycles like two thousand six in two thousand eight where a strong out party performance mirrors big presidential year. But the more common pattern is certainly for the out party having Reagan mid-term out partying, not the president's party and then for the presence amounts back, and when the retain the presidency if you have a first term incumbent and usually congressmens it being fairly neutral in those years. So the default would be assumed that each party keeps its own cute little branch of congress, and I'd say like the data's not inconsistent with that. Yeah. Let's kind of what you'd expect you'd expect. We had asked like what would you expect kind of like the generic ballot to be in April twenty nineteen we'd say probably received from eight or nine points democratic to five or six that's kind of what we seem to be seeing. And does not. By the way, it's gonna be five or six in twenty twenty. I would expect it to recede further other things all equal. I would think and Trump is like he's not far off where Obama was in terms of approval in terms of approval going into twenty teen. His Trump is not marginally is like meaning meaningfully more popular, it's like his approval rating three points lower. But it's not like he's you know, when Trump was like thirty seven thirty eight he was like that's a big difference. Right. So. Yeah. All right. These are all things that we're going to continue tracking as we do our future quarterly reports. But I think we're going to leave it there for now. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Claire. Thanks, mike. And of course, we hope to see are all what we hope to see all of our listeners. But especially our listeners live in Texas at our Texas live show only Texans allowed. We'll be checking ID's at the door will be in Houston on may eighth and you can go to thirty eight dot com slash live for tickets. My name is Gail and drew Turney Chow is in the control room. You can get in touch by emailing us at podcast, fivethirtyeight dot com. You can also course tweeted us with questions or comments if you're fan of the show leave us a rating overview in the apple podcasts store or tell someone about us. Thanks for listening, and we'll see.

Coming up next