United States, Mayo Clinic, Dr Greg Poland discussed on Mayo Clinic Q&A
Welcome to Mayo Clinic. Dr Helena's Alka. We're here recording this podcast. Any Eighth Two thousand twenty. I have the pleasure again of having with me. Dr Greg Poland after Poland's an infectious disease expert as well as Being of our Rajistan indexing expert here at the Mayo Clinic. Thanks for being here. Dr Poland could be here so glad to have you. You know this has been a really somber week in terms of the covy nineteen pandemic. We've been hearing over and over that this could be the deadliest week ever for the United States in terms of this pandemic. Could you give us an update? I think you're right that the the numbers and the trends are leading that way we are now just below one and a half million cases worldwide with eighty three thousand deaths in the US. We now passed four hundred thousand cases with about thirteen thousand deaths and yet there are some hopeful signs. There has been a bit of a plant show in New York City. Which is really been an epicenter of the pandemic in the US? Now it's it's starting to spread to other areas but it does show that with out of the kinds of social distancing and other public health maneuvers that it it takes a little while but it actually does work in powerful thing to do in terms of controlling this virus in its spread so in spite of telling us this could be very deadly week. We've also heard from the CD that the numbers may not be as high here in the United States as well. How do you explain that you're very right? You know the initial projections called for somewhere. Two hundred thousand to as many as about one point seven million deaths and I've looked at those same numbers I've looked at the kinetics of transmission with this virus in its reproductive number as I said in the US were at about thirteen thousand deaths. I don't see US getting even to that bottom number. I see us being more. Perhaps in the fifty thousand deaths range which which is bad enough. But you know again to put that into perspective. We've had about thirty thousand Americans die of influenza this flu season so while this is a if you will then then flew or an influenza and certainly causes more in the way of of severe disease and death this controllable by the kinds of maneuvers. We've talked about all along this week. We heard that tiger in the Bronx Zoo was infected with covert nineteen after coming in contact with zookeeper. How that happened. And what does it mean for people in their pets? We don't know a lot of details other than the zookeeper was ill. The Tiger got it then spread it to some other tigers in alliance. I don't know if that means when they say tested positive. Was it positive for stars Kobe to? That's quite possible. We know that in the laboratory you can spread this virus. Two ferrets into cats that has not been seen with dogs and I should hasten to say that cats and dogs trade. Their own corona viruses. That don't move to humans So so there is some uncertainty around that the case now the CDC in response to that and actually beforehand made the recommendation again out of an abundance of caution to say that. If you or somebody in your household is ill with Kovic nineteen that you should not have contact with your pet now. There is no indication that I am aware of of a pet spreading to a humid. So we don't have to worry in that in that direction and I think that this is a gonNa turn out to be something very rare and uncommon. Let's turn to another topic. Vaccines obviously like to be able to prevent future infections of covert nineteen. Can you tell us where we are in terms of developing a vaccine? You know it's interesting that a lot of groups now are getting involved in terms of vaccine development. Our own group back here at Mayo Clinic but there are some sixty vaccine candidates six. Oh next scene candidates that are being bandied about. There's only one actually in phase one clinical trials here in the US and this is actually the start at the fourth week of that trial. They will enroll a total of forty five individuals and then we hope that within the next few weeks to a month. We'll have the data from that trial and the determination whether to take that into face to testing everybody else is not yet at the phase one mark practically for us. When does that mean we might have a vaccine? That's a that's a really tough question. I think an optimistic and I'm GONNA say very optimistic. Milestone might be the eighteen to twenty four month time period. So that's a ways off it really it really. Is I think what that means in your senior at Mayo Clinic in other leading medical institutions. You're seeing bridge. Therapies developed so for example. I think another piece of very good news. Is that Mayo? Clinic was named the National Coordinating Center for plasma-derived therapies. What that means. Is that once somebody recovers from this infection. We can take their blood harvest. The plasma which is enriched with antibodies against Kobe nineteen and then use that as a therapy for people who might have more severe disease. So that's something we can be doing immediately. Following with that will be the development and continued clinical trials of antivirals and then I think lingering farther out from their beck seen development so a lot of amazing things going on. You know when you you really right. I I mentioned it before and I never cease to be amazed canvas that we call. Cova nineteen was blank thirteen weeks ago. It were no dots on the canvas at all and when you think of what. Collaboratively internationally has happened in terms of the generation of new knowledge. It's it's sounding in just twelve weeks Greg Bird. He told me that you have some tips for staying well and feeling better during covert. Yeah I kind of developed it Because today actually is the one hundredth day since. Who was notified about this cluster of unidentified in unusual pneumonia cases in Wuhan China? So so I thought of you know. Okay it's been a hundred days and we might have another hundred days in front of us. It's hard to know. So what can people do at this midpoint? Let's call it and some of these are kind of obvious. But I thought I'd I'd speak to ten things that collectively there's good evidence to support their value number one a media fast and what. I mean by DAD is. I don't think it's good in the data was Would suggest it's not good to sit in front of the TV all day. You know were at home. Were teleworking were going to school. From from a distance you know. Pay attention to the news. Maybe thirty minutes in the morning and thirty minutes in the evening or something but then do something else. The other thing is eat right. The tendency is going to be to reach for snack foods to reach for easy quick Processed foods to prepare. So this is an opportunity to take time. My wife and I cooked together. Well she does the cooking. I do the eating the. Don't forget about slate. This is a stressful time for people and eating right sleeping in the next one. Exercise are really things that we know improve your immune system and you want to be as healthy as you can be number five would be to connect with others. We are social creatures. Were meant to be in community with one another. That may have to be using technology as were doing. It might be a phone call. Might be Google hangout or facebook but put connect with people. Number six sounds easy to say. It's a little harder to practice. And that is even in the midst of this trial gratitude and positive thinking go along way. My daughter Actually keeps a gratitude journal and tries to keep a healthy perspective number. Seven is faith whatever your spiritual beliefs. Faith turns out to be a big driver of wellbeing when people are stressed in fearful and uncertain conditions. Number aid is to have routines and to build fun into that routines. Turn out to be very important in human behavior. Number nine is helped somebody else. It might be a neighbor Where where you have to go shopping or deliver something. Maybe you can help your neighbor so that you don't have to people going out just one and then. The last thing is embark on learning something new. There's a lot of people stuck at home if you will. This would be a fabulous time particularly as a family to say. Let's let's learn something important together. Let's learn something that will use the rest of our lives? This is a wonderful opportunity to do. So those are great. I think it's Especially thought provoking that. It's Easter which is an important holiday. For many religious individuals has been in the United States and that sort of promise in hope of you life or spring in so what a good time to be to be thinking that way absolutely I think again you know regardless of your of your faith believe believing in something bigger than your circumstances is really important you know for us it. Mayo Clinic. It's it's our. It's not only our our families in our personal beliefs but our work belief right. We all know these same seven words. The needs of the patient come first in week coal less around that because we believe in in that bigger thing called. Mayo Clinic and then the next thing is what what are your community beliefs and then your spiritual beliefs. I think it's a it's it's a. It's a rock to kind of hold onto during.