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MLB owners lock out players, 1st work stoppage since 1995
"It's it's the the management management equivalent equivalent of of a a strike strike and and is is the the first first baseball baseball work work stoppage stoppage in in more more than than twenty twenty five five years years the the collective collective bargaining bargaining agreement agreement has has run run out out New New York York Mets Mets pitcher pitcher Max Max Scherzer Scherzer wants wants to to see see change change there's there's so so many many different different ways ways that that we we as as as as players players as as a a whole whole that that we we believe believe that that we we can can make make the the game game better better commissioner commissioner rob rob Manfred Manfred is is hoping hoping the the lockout lockout will will jumpstart jumpstart negotiations negotiations and and get get an an agreement agreement to to allow allow this this season season to to start start on on time time player player agent agent Scott Scott Boras Boras says says competition competition is is a a big big issue issue our our whole whole integrity integrity and and wholesomeness wholesomeness of of the the game game needs needs to to be be back back to to where where it it was was where where there there is is an an incentive incentive to to go go to to the the ballpark ballpark and and win win every every day day average average salaries salaries in in baseball baseball are are declining declining eleven eleven weeks weeks remaining remaining until until pitchers pitchers and and catchers catchers are are scheduled scheduled to to report report to to spring spring training training I'm I'm a a Donahue Donahue
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1778: The Storm Before the Calm
"Hello. I rarely remember my dreams, which is good, I think, because I can't bore people by describing my dreams, but since we last spoke, I had two dreams about the podcast that I remembered in one I got fired for recording the podcast while on the job. I was still an intern for the Yankees for some reason, and I was trying to record a podcast, turning the middle of the day, and I commandeered an office and I closed all the windows and tried to sound proof it, but somehow I was found out and I was fired afterward for podcasting on the job. And in the second dream, I dreamed specifically about this episode and what we would talk about in my fear was that we would have nothing to talk about. And I was trying to brainstorm in my sleep. I was like, we could talk about the fact that they changed the basis. They used bigger basis in the miners this year and they changed the step off rule and pick off rules and boy, that really changed stolen base rates. I don't know why that specifically was my solution, but I guess even almost after 1800 episodes, I still have podcast anxiety dreams I suppose podcasts. They're just like us, but that is not a concern. I don't think we will have any trouble finding things to talk about today. If anything we will struggle to record something that isn't like a 20 hour long episode. Yeah, I was joking with a friend yesterday because he wished me luck with our forthcoming epic podcast about all of the transactions that have happened. And I said, maybe we'll just split it up into like ten parts and we'll just save it. We'll just squirrel them away for later in the winter when there's no news at all. It'll be like an advent calendar. We will just put it out in tiny little pieces and un December 21st or listeners will check their apps and they'll find that we talked about the rangers getting John gray or something that day. But we'll see. We will pay the price for all of the news happening in just a few days. But that's a problem for later Ben and later Meg for today. We have too much to talk about. We got some emails from listeners expressing concern for my well-being. Because of how much news there is. But I've come around to the following idea that while the number of transactions that we have had over the last couple days meant that my mom had to pretend to not be annoyed by the volume of transaction activity and thus work that I was doing while ostensibly on Thanksgiving break. You know, this way, we have an easier February, right? Like we were sort of set up to just be busy every single day with multiple signings whenever we come back from the lockout that seems inevitable at this point. And now, you know, we'll have that many fewer transactions to have to write up, and it'll be a much more manageable month of work. So it's really, it's really fine, although I do love that all of these teams are behaving like beet writers on deadline or to use your advent calendar analogy, my dad got my nieces play mobile advent calendars. And you know, you're supposed to open a little thing every day, except sometimes you're three, and that's really hard. So you end up with the whole scene open before it's even December 1st. So yeah, maybe it is an advent calendar. It just is being governed by the whims of small children without impulse control. Right. It's like the cookie test or the marshmallow test. Can you wait and get multiple marshmallows or do you just have to have that marshmallow now? Right. I guess it's the advent calendar test. We gave our dog an advent calendar last year, but the treats were not tasty enough for her. And so she gave up on it. She just wasn't interested after a while. But interesting. Enough about advent calendars. Let's talk about some transactions. So what happened here? What is still happening here as we record on Tuesday afternoon and who knows how many more moves there will have been by the time people hear this. But it has been a frantic few days. Max Scherzer. Corey seeker. Marcus Simeon Robbie ray Kevin gausman Javier Baez starling Marte John gray. Obviously, Garcia, the Byron buxton extension, many more moves, something like a billion and a half dollars in contracts committed to free agents. I think 21 of MLB trade rumors top 50 free agents are already off the board, including a bunch of the biggest names, so it's basically like an off seasons worth of activity half enough seasons worth of activity taking place in just a few days. There have been winter meetings in years past, maybe with a similar level of activity, but this was wild and relative to recent off seasons when things have started so slowly and relative to expectations for this off season when I think we mostly expected that things would be quiet for a while. I can't think of any off season sequence like this, which makes sense, I suppose, because it was precipitated by the likelihood of a lockout, but this was something of a surprise. I think we can say we misread the market here. I think maybe everyone did. I don't know if I missed many media members who were predicting that all the deals would get done before the lockout, but I think for the most part, it was the opposite that there would not be November being nuts, it would be no nuts, November. It would be. There was a consensus that things would be slow, right?
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1777: Happy Francsgiving
"Graff's and I'm joined as always by Ben lindberg of the ringer. Ben, how are you? I'm good. Okay, but how are you doing? Because teams have not complied with your wishes. You requested a pre Thanksgiving lull and instead we've seen the opposite. Well, I'm fine because like any good workplace, photographs runs because it does not depend entirely on my presence. John has been editing in my stead, the staff is writing their usual good analysis. So it's been okay, but it is sort of comical that because of the looming CBA deadline we have this sort of artificial crunch before Thanksgiving. Although, you know, it's not as if we don't have Thanksgiving related transaction activity or haven't had it in prior years, but often it's Jerry to potos doing. Right. Now it's kind of a collective effort. Right. So it's been fun, you know, it gives us something to talk about. My parents dogs are in their crates, so as not to hopefully bark excessively during our podcast. Ready to go. Here we go. Excellent. My dog is on my lap, but she is a seasoned podcaster, so she is just about always there and she knows when she's on the lap under the blanket. It's podcasting time. She's got to be quiet for a while. And usually, she's pretty good about that. So yeah, it's tough to say whether there's more happening on the hot stove league or in stove league, but we will talk about both today. So we can start with the former in the headline news is the wonder Franco extension the extension that launched a thousand jokes and witty wordplays about how wander is in fact not wondering anywhere. And in fact, he is staying in Florida. We're at least he is as long as the race themselves are in for because there's still a question about that. So this is an 11 year guarantee for a 182 million rent, but there is a 12th year club option for another 25 million that could come into play here. And then there are various escalators that could kick in if he gets some top 5 MVP finishes after a certain point. So it can max out at 223 million over 12 years. And that's a really long time. And yet because he is so young, he will not be an old person by the time still is done. Even if the club option is exercised and he's with the rays or whichever team inherits this contract, 12 years later, he'll be like, well, a little older than Freddy Freeman is now, I guess. So he could very well sign another multiyear deal after this. In fact, it's likely that he will. So this is not his complete career earnings, and I would say that either he will be in a position to make much more money by that point or he will probably be happy that he signed this extension. Either or if things don't work out for some reason, then maybe this will be the big signing for him. But if so, then it's not bad. So this is sort of started the usual conversation about how to decide whether a player left some amount of money on the table. And it's unusual, I guess, for that to be a raise centric conversation although they have certainly signed players to extensions before, and we can discuss some of those. But this is a record deal for the rays easily and it's also a record deal easily for any player with the scant service time that wander Franco. Obviously, he is a much wealthier person now and it is nice for race fans that they can count on seeing wonderful go for a while. Maybe not for 12 years, but for a while. Yeah, I think that I think a couple of things. I talked about the potential for this extension a little bit with your Auguste colleague, Michael bauman, on your other podcast. So you just have all these podcasts been. And I think at the time I had sort of said one, don't do it. I think my thinking on that has evolved a little bit. I do think it's worth noting that players of his caliber do tend to do pretty well for themselves and arbitration, right? So it is not as if the options that were available to him were make the league minimum for the next 5 years or sign this extension, right? We've seen players like Mookie betts make more than $20 million in an RPO. So that sort of possibility existed. I do think that it's useful to think about this extension within the context of other big pre arbitration extensions that we have seen and I think the one that everyone really cringes at and feels yucky about is Ozzy albies, right? Where it was clear that it seemed like he maybe got bad advice, right? His agent did not do right by him, given where his talent lies even with some of the limitations in his profile. He should have made more than that. And then there's Ronald Acuna junior who, I think we all kind of thought, well, you can do better than this. And maybe you should have been encouraged to hold out to do better than this, but this is not like an insultingly bad deal. I don't want to retcon it as awesome given the injury that he suffered this year, right? But that is the scenario that you are trying to mitigate when you sign deals like this. Is that you can have just a season ending injury. You can have a career altering injury and it doesn't seem likely that that's going to be quite the severity of this for Ronald Acuna junior, but that is that would have been a factor in his in whatever contracts he signed after that. So that's the situation that you're trying to manage for. I think that when you have the possibility of making $223 million, you are, you are accruing generational wealth in a moment like that. You know, this is not just life altering for Wanda Franco, but for his future children, should he have them and potentially their children. You know, this is generational money. And I think that while if you look at the projections, you know, sometimes when I go on vacation for a day, I just get to interact with fan grasses or reader, which is a thing I don't normally get to do. And I opened Dan's piece on this and looked at his zips projections and it's like, I think he put it best on Twitter. This is almost like fan service. Projections for frog or absurd because he's so incredibly talented. There's a reason he has the only prospect we have ever ate at fan graphs, right? And so I think that it is perfectly reasonable to look at this deal and think that he left money on the table, but I don't think that it is taking advantage of him. I don't think that that is the sort of Sheen that this deal has. And because he is so young, this is not the last contract. And if it is the last meaningful payday he gets, well then he properly managed his risk of something going awry later in his career, right? Like I think that we all want players to be paid commensurate with the value that they bring to their teams into the sport more broadly and wander Franco has the potential to be a generational talent and a guy who is a fixture of the sport for a long, long time.
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1776: How Can You Not Be Romantic About Baseball?
"Graphs presented by our Patreon supporters, I am Ben Lindbergh of the ringer, not joined today as I usually am by make rally of fan graphs make is traveling for Thanksgiving. I have an almost 8 week old baby at home so I am not traveling for Thanksgiving and therefore I am with you today. Meg will be back tomorrow, and we will be discussing the wonder Franco extension and the Kendall deal in the next four episodes of stove leak and who knows what else. But in Meg's absence, I will be doing two interviews with two authors of two pieces of recent writing about baseball that I quite enjoyed. Later in the episode, I will be bringing on Gerald Schiffman of baseball prospectus to discuss his research published on Tuesday about whether shadows on the field actually matter. You hear broadcasters talk about this, every October, as the shadows creep from behind the mound to home plate, Gerald did the research. This is actually his second look at the subject, and he came up with an interesting answer, so he'll be here a little later on, most of the episodes, though, will be spent in conversation with my first guest Katie Casey, who is the author of a book called unwritten rules published last month. It is a baseball romance novel, and it is about catchers and catcher framing, a bullpen framing session is sort of the meet cute here, so obviously I loved it. It's got a great story and a great relationship at the center of it, and it's a great book about baseball. And if you have any curiosity about romance novels in general and how they intersect with sports, this will be a great introduction to that topic, so let's get going. Back in May, I got a message from my guest today, Katie Kasey, who was asking me for permission to use a quote of mine from a grantland article back in 2013 about pitch framing as an epigraph for her baseball romance novel called unwritten rules. And I was flattered. I'm a big epigraph guy. Love using an epigraph have never been used as an epigraph previously to my knowledge. So I was flattered. And after reading the book, I am even more honored to be associated with it in some small way because it is a great book. So Katie, thank you very much for using that quote. Thank you for writing the book. Congrats on writing the book. And as you know, I had hope to talk to you in October before the book came out, but my daughter had other ideas. So I am happy to have you on today. Yeah, thank you for inviting me on. First of all, like, muzzles on your new arrival. Thank you. This must have been an exhausting couple of months. So I really appreciate you having me on. So I DMed you on Twitter because my publisher Karina press, which is a harlequin imprint, was like, yeah, you know, you can use this quote as an epigraph, but we're going to need you to permission it. So I was like, let me, let me ask a question that you probably have never been asked. Which is can I use a quantum environment article on pitch framing as an ever graph to a I would say hi heat MM Jewish baseball romance novel that has I would say about 99% accurate ish baseball. Yes. Some liberties were taken with the timing of the trade deadline as what I'm going to say. But, you know, I really appreciate you using the quote. Are letting me use the quote. And I think it really actually sums up the book pretty well. Yeah, would you care to read the quote or I can? I don't know which would be better, but maybe that would set up our conversation sort of sure. Let me pull that up. So just for context because I know I threw a lot of adjectives at this. So unwritten rules is a romance novel, and we'll get into what that sort of means because I always like to be a little bit definitional about that. Because people have some ideas of what sort of are not romance novels. It is a contemporary sports romance, so set in
A highlight from Free Agency & A Lurking Lockout
"The one, the only you see him everywhere you see his writing you see is reporting, you see all that MLB network. He is the incredible John Heyman John how you doing buddy? Cody, it's always a pleasure. It's mostly tweeting more than writing that at the moment, but yes. Well, that seems like that is the new form of actual communication and new form of journalism at this point. Yes, I work hard at Twitter for no money. It's like my old job delivering papers. It gets the job done. And you get no money out of it. But it gets the job done. Here's the fact. Every day, the most tweets I see, the most important tweets that are most impactful to me and my life on a daily basis, believe it or not, follow at John Heyman because that's where I'm getting the most important information that pertains to my life now. And it's the off season the hot stove is burning. We have so much to cover today. We got some reactions to the AL MVP, the NLM BP, of course, some other awards. We're gonna talk about the hot stove again going crazy and the shortstop market through the roof, not to mention the outfield market. There is just so much going on and we can't sit here and pretend that there isn't a possible work stoppage looming coming December 1st. There is just so much taking place and it's incredible because we're only a couple of weeks into the off season. So John, let's get right into it. First of all, I want to say you're very positive guy Cody. I really appreciate that. You said it possible work stop. You've already made my day because I'm gonna say I'm gonna pretend that you have some insight from information that we could avoid this work stoppage. And I'm gonna feel good for the day. Don't tell me otherwise, I'm just gonna assume there's some insight information and you feel there's a chance we're gonna avoid this lockup. So there is definitely no chance we're avoiding the lockout. I just say I'm sorry, sorry, sorry, sorry sorry. We're gonna avoid it entirely. We're going to golden fact season starting in two weeks. Oh, beautiful. Oh man, I would give what I would give. But let's just get right out to the gate. John, let's talk about the reactions to some of these awards that have come out. First things first, we're just going to start with the no duh segment of the show. And let's just talk about AL and NL MVP Shohei Ohtani Bryce Harper John was her even a question in your mind. There was no question for Otani. I mean, he was clearly the MVP got all 30 votes, which I was surprised, because, you know, when I kept saying, I probably started in June saying that he was the MVP and I got a lot of pushback, but that's from fans. It's not from journalists. And, you know, by the end, I think it was clear, you know, there were people who were holding out if led Guerrero had won the Triple Crown and the Toronto had got into the playoffs. Now they only missed by one game, but if they've got into the playoffs and maybe won the Triple Crown, he would have gotten some votes, but to me, than he had an all time great season, maybe the greatest season of all time. I mean, we've never seen anybody do this. At least not in our lifetime, but can only imagine what Babe Ruth did as well. And that's kind of what we saw with Otani. Bryce Harper, I did vote for Bryce Harper. I had that vote. And, you know, I was with tatis up until maybe early September and I finally switched and, you know, I looked at it every few days. I mean, you really get an erotic about these things. You don't want to be embarrassed yourself, and you certainly want to, you know, put your best foot forward and make the right pick. So I had Harper first, which I thought he would win and the one semi controversial thing where I got a little pushback. I had Crawford's second because, you know, I'm old fashioned. I still count winning. And he ended up finishing fourth, but I mean, people were screaming. I mean, I'm only imagining they're screaming because it's Twitter, but I had them second and he should be forth behind tatis and Soto, but I had them ahead because the great defender, his team 107 games. He was consistent all the way through. And, you know, I just thought Harper really carried his team in that second half with an 1188 OPS in the second half almost getting them into the playoffs. They had no right to be in the real top heavy team. So I agreed with the picks and I made one of the picks. So it was easy for me. I agree with the pics as well. You know, I was like you, I was on tatis junior, the entire season. It wasn't quite middle of September was about the end of August early September that I started to really start to change my mind a little bit, seeing what Harper was doing like you said, carrying that ball club towards the end of the season almost making them a playoff contender and they again were not a playoff contender last season. And then, of course, Juan Soto another incredible season for him, but what I just looked at the numbers at the end of the day I felt like I had
A highlight from Side Dish
"I'm ready to go, man. Nice. I'm in New York. I'm going to be headed up to Vermont. Hang out with my siblings, and I think I'm going to try a few dishes before we get to my world famous Vermont mashed potatoes. Very nice. I would love to have some of your Vermont mashed potatoes that sounds delicious. Yeah, well, if there's any leftover 'cause usually royalty from around the world asks for my Vermont mashed potatoes. All right. Deals that have happened this week, the Giants resigned Anthony diesel thani to a three year $36 million contract, and they reportedly also made a lot of progress in their talks with Alex wood. So the Giants filling out their rotation, the angels paid big for lefty reliever Aaron lupia yesterday two years $17 million deal. It includes a $2 million buyout and a third year option. Steven Matz, according to New York Post, we'll get a deal probably sometime in the next 5 days. There's a bunch of teams, including the Red Sox and the Blue Jays in on that bidding. First pitch is part of ESPN nation brought to you by Dr Pepper. College football is back and so are the fans. Return to glory with fans available by Dr Pepper, the one fans deserve. According to our Jeff pass in Pedro severino catcher in the brewers, have agreed to a one year $1.9 million deal. In order to Rodriguez, who agreed to terms on that 5 year $77 million deal last week with the tigers, was introduced by Detroit. This is one of I feel like the best days of my life just have this kind of countering and how this work and we all you guys here. It's just for me, just get here. Go to Lakeland, start screen it, get ready for get ready for next season. You know, and like I say, do my part the winner championship. Most of the can go out there every 5 days. Do the best for the opportunity to win some games. Every time I can, you know, and I can wait to get to know all my team is Darwin in Lakeland and when I started knowing all of them and they know they know me and be as a family and be part of that family that you guys, you guys already had together and I just want to be part of it. Noah syndergaard was introduced by the angels having signed a one year deal last week for $21 million.
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1775: Ask the Audience
"I am Ben Lindbergh of the ringer joined by Meg rally of Zayn. Hello next. Hello. And another thing about fit. I did mention this last time when I went on my little mini rant. We have another thing. I do, I've been stewing on this all weekend. Okay. Hit me. When we talked about awards last time, I went on a little mini diatribe by Ben Lindbergh standards about people who suggest that fit is some sort of abstract meat on a spreadsheet baseball lab kind of hypothetical stat, whereas ERA is actual results. That's what actually happened as we discussed PHIP is what actually happened to and it actually focuses on what the picture himself did. It's an individual award. But in our new Discord group for Patreon supporters, some patrons were discussing that discussion. And one of them made a point, which we didn't mention, but I think is a good one. I'm sure other people have brought this up at some point, but Thomas our Patreon supporter noted that ERA also tries to isolate the pitcher's performance from the fielders, right? It's called earned run average, because it accounts for errors and thus it tries to give pictures a pass for mistakes made behind them. And subtract that from their record. And so if you're going to say that ERA is results and fip is not, maybe that makes that an even more tenuous case when you consider that ERA is not just did he allow runs or not, it did he allow runs that were his responsibility. He's kind of trying to do what PHIP does in that sense, but not well. It just doesn't do it very well because errors are sort of nonsense. And sometimes Fielder's mistakes are not counted as errors, and we know all the problems with theirs. But that kind of suggests to me that, okay, maybe they are more philosophically aligned. So if you're okay with ERA removing unearned runs and deciding what is an unerring bullet that's sort of what fit is doing. It's just doing it better. Right, right. I went on a journey with you there, Ben. I was like, are we going to come away from this and Ben's going to say, and that's why ERA is great. Right, I think that I think that you've hit upon something. Like there is an acknowledgment even within the most traditional stats that, you know, a pitcher shouldn't be held accountable for the worst version of fielding and what fip and other estimators like it try to say is what if we, what if we didn't need an error though? What if we were even more precise than that? So yeah. Yeah. All right. Well, not that fit is flawless again. Discuss the issues there. And why you shouldn't necessarily rely on that one set or anyone's that. But that seemed like a worthwhile point that Thomas made. And I find that often when people suggest that someone is over reliant on stats, they themselves are relying on some sort of it's just often. So I figured I'd mention that. So a little bit of news roundup before we get to today's topic. So we don't have any huge transactions to discuss, but maybe there are some that are rumored or in the works, I guess, say a Suzuki has been posted now officially by his team in Japan the Hiroshima carp. So now he's got a about a week, I guess, before a possible lockout, a little more than that, ten days, and if there is a lockout in a transaction freeze, then his 30 day posting window will just be suspended. And so he has to decide do I want to sign quickly and teams have to decide that they want to sign him quickly? Or will they wait and see what happens with the CPA? Assuming that there is a lock out in a transaction freeze in which case, whatever compressed transaction period, we have after there's an agreement he would have to decide where to go. So that's something to watch and monitor. I guess there could be developments quickly with him. But not necessarily, maybe it'll be a holding pattern. Yeah, I think there was some confusion about how exactly his posting process works given the possibility of the lockout, but he does not have to suffer in a bridge to posting. He just will have a weirdly disjointed one assuming that he doesn't sign before the first and of course assuming that the league and the players are not able to reach a new CBA by then and thus go into a lockout. So I can imagine he will wait. I just really don't, I don't know. Maybe we will see a flurry of activity. I'm going to say no we won't, and then teams will be like, hey, Meg. How's that Thanksgiving? Be shame something. But I expect that we will see some more transaction activity before the morning dawns on the second, but I don't imagine it will be a lot. It seems like the combination of the holiday with the quickness with which they would have to strike deals seems like at all. It'll tend toward being more bund. One deal that may be done or may get done soon is the marwan's extension with sandy Alcantara, who I guess often extensions tend to get done right around the end of spring training and before opening day that's when teams and players often knock these things out, but we saw the Jose breo extension with Toronto. And now the marwan's reportedly are closing in on a 5 year deal that would be for more than 55 million. So that is encouraging, I guess, and that the Marlins are spending some money in Alcantara is quite good. And the Marlins are in that category of teams that are pretty interesting to me in some ways it's even more of a shame that we might get a walk out here than it would be in a normal off season because there are a lot of teams that are kind of in an interesting spot that I don't know which way they'll go and will they invest heavily and will they rebuild? They're just so many teams that are kind of on the cusp of something. And I think that Marlins are one of them. We talked about the tigers and the Mariners on an episode last week and how it seems like
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1774: In Defense of FIP
"As always by Ben Lindbergh of the ringer. Ben how are you? I'm doing well. I have a bunch of people in my mentions, congratulating me on Shohei Ohtani's unanimous AL MVP award as if I was somehow responsible or should share in his accomplishment. But really, I want to be maybe the first maybe not the first to congratulate you on Mike eNOS, tenth place, MVP vote. Just as impressive and accomplishment. Thank you. You know Mike zino. He's good. He's. Well, he's good. Yeah, you can say that now. He has received MVP votes. Well, and NPP code. Yeah. Yeah, yeah, I don't know which is more surprising that than he would win the MVP award or would receive MVP consideration. Let's say that's a generous way to put it. But both of those things happen. So today is going to be the first of our stove leak discussion episodes will be covering the first four episodes of the show. But before we get to stove league, let's talk a little bit about awards week and not just Toni ends and you know, all the major awards have been announced now and I guess if you graphed my level of interest in a words voting over time, it would be a straight line down. I mean, it would be a linear decline, I guess. I'm less and less interested, I suppose in who wins awards, but I am interested in them in the sense that they may be act as a referendum of sorts on how player value is perceived. So it's not that I really have a stake in the outcomes or even that it affects my thinking about a player's season so much. I mean, I'm glad that one, but I would not be any less impressed by what he achieved if he had not won for some reason. But I am interested in the conversation about the awards. I suppose maybe it's an overbid to say that the word results reflect how the media at large perceives player value, let alone how teams do or have fans do, because again, every award is based on a subset of voters. It's what 30 people thought of a given race. And granted those 30 people are influenced by the thinking of the industry and they're not immune to other people's opinions. So there's definitely some groupthink in echo chamber and peer pressure and all of that that goes into it. But it's still something of a small sample that may not always be reflective of the larger body of baseball writers and baseball writers may not be reflective of other larger bodies, but I guess the most controversial result or the one that has sparked the most debate seems to be the and I'll say I'm a word. Don't know whether it's a productive debate or not, but they're aspects of it that interest me. So the winner was Corbin burns brewers who beat out Zach Wheeler of the Phillies and others in a pretty tight race. Some of these races were not so close. This one was pretty close. So very close. Burns and Wheeler got 12 first place votes apiece and burns ended up with ten more Cy Young points he did a little bit better, lower in ballots and then Max Scherzer also got 6 first place votes. But this was the most divisive result just because burns had the really great historic fielding independent pitching mark that is probably what his season is most known for best since Christy mathewson and the national league, whereas Wheeler had the innings he had the bulk and he also had really good peripherals and everything. Yeah, so he snoop slouched no matter how you look at it. But this became kind of fit versus ERA or fit versus innings pitched discussion, which has been raging for a while, but this brought it to a head. This being a fit versus ERA discussion is hilarious because Corbin burns was the ERA champion. That too. Yeah. Yeah, so maybe it's more of an inning versus. Sure. Quality of the innings debate. I should start being surprised that, look, I should preface what I'm about to say by acknowledging that I am prone to moments of extreme feeling also. So it is not as if I am like computer person. But I guess I should stop being quite so surprised by people reacting to what they are presented with, which I find to be inherently sort of reasonable with a lot more fuss and vinegar than I was expecting. I think that both of these guys had tremendously good seasons, right? I think if you look at our version of war fan graphs, which is fit base, which will be important to this conversation. And if you look at baseball perspectives version of war or warp as they call it, which is DRA based. These guys, they were basically the same. They produce the same amount of value, right? We had burns ahead ever so slightly compared to Wheeler. They had Wheeler ahead ever so slightly compared to burns. I think that it is perfectly reasonable for you to look at these two guys seasons and say, Zach Wheeler pitched 60 some odd more innings than Bernstein. He pitched well during those innings, right? And he was he was the siong by virtue of the innings he pitched and the value of those brought to the Phillies. I think that Wheeler is the same. I think that if you look at burns this year and say, sure, he pitched fewer innings, but he was so superlative in the innings that he did pitch, both by traditional metrics and by more advanced stats that that's enough for me. Sure, it's fewer innings, but they were really great endings that he threw. And so he is the same. I think that both of those arguments are completely reasonable, I think that a preference for bulk is fine, because these guys were both great. I think that preferring just the run that burns was on the strikeouts he was able to accrue the home runs that he suppressed, you know, just the minuscule walk rate that he surrendered. I think that if you look at either of these guys and think that they had a SI worthy season, that's perfectly reasonable. Yeah, they both did. Yeah, undeniably. Undeniably. Neither one is like, oh, this person is not deserving of a saying or yeah, this is not have won it in any other season. I mean, they've had sien caliper seasons. And every slice it. And it's not as if the margin between them was very large. I mean, I think that the margin from a baseball reference were perspective was broader, certainly, so we should acknowledge that part. But these guys, when you look at our version of work, they're well within the margin of error for more. There is noise in that status. We've talked a lot about how it is not precise down to the decimal point. And so I think that looking at this and saying one of these guys is better than the other, but it's close as perfectly reasonable. I think that the margins in the voting reflected that. So this is not as if burns won unanimously and Wheeler was slated. I think that there was just like you said enough down ballot consideration for burns and those 6 Scherzer votes in first place loom large for both of these guys. And so I was like, that's fine. This is reasonable, and then Twitter went nuts. Was very confused and somehow the guy who was the ERA champion was somehow the Paragon for the nerds and anyway, it was all very it was all very Twitter. I do think that, you know, we should as people who analyze the game, like interrogate what the baseline threshold for innings is for a guide to win the so young award. I think having that conversation I was talking with your colleague, Michael bauman, about this on your other podcast. And I think put it well that part of what we might be seeing here is some anxiety about the role of the starter. And if we are willing to bestow the sports highest honor for a specifically for a pitcher on a guy who threw so many fewer innings than someone like we learned that that might be what part of this is, right, that we want innings to matter. I don't think that nerds are saying innings don't matter, right? I think that that's sort of silly and I don't think that I don't think that any awards vote should be just a straight war leaderboard sort. But where's the counting stat? So it's not as if innings didn't matter. Perplexes me.
A highlight from Jagged
"Rev Taylor schwank on buster only working for my home in New York. I just got back from Montana or is making a lot of calls following the market. A lot of stuff going on. We were both out west. I didn't know you were in Montana. I was out in Colorado and Arizona, so we were really, you know, we had our ourselves a little retreat not together, but I hope you enjoyed your time and got a little relaxation, 'cause I know you could use it. Yeah. And we should have gotten together for coffee, right? Meant some place in Utah. Yeah, Wyoming would have been great. All right, so yesterday, we have Carl rabbit's coming up on the podcast. We got a lot to get to today and we'll start with the MVP voting that came down yesterday we spoke all summer about Choi Otani in this amazing season that he had and I think the question came down to how many first place votes would he get? Well, he was named the MVP, the American League, unanimously, claiming all 31st place votes. His shohei Otani giving his initial reaction.
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1773: Hats Off
"Our Patreon supporters, I am bending birth of the ringer joined by Meg rally of Bancroft's hello MiG. Hello. We are going to be joined shortly by one of our Patreon supporters who will be answering some emails with us and also telling us a little bit about his life and his interest in baseball. But a brief bit of banter before we get to our guest John Cho. So there was one notable signing that we should probably address Justin Verlander is back with the Astros on a somewhat surprising deal at least it was somewhat surprising to me not that he returned to the esters, but the terms of the agreement. So this is a one year $25 million deal with a player option for a second year at the same value. So it's essentially a $50 million commitment over two years, and he can take or leave the second one if you want some Verlander, of course, is coming off missing the entire 2021 season and all but one start of the 2020 season after Tommy John surgery. So it's an interesting case because the last time we all saw ruiner, he was winning a Cy Young award in 2019 and then having a start where he looked like his usual self at the beginning of the 2020 season. And then he had Tommy John surgery and he's been gone since then at least from public view and he'll be 39 on opening day. So it's an odd case of a pitcher who essentially the last time he pitched was one of the very best pitchers in baseball. And of course, has been over the course of his career, but also has not pitched in a professional game for quite some time and has reached a very advanced baseball age. So it's an interesting case, I suppose to figure out how much that guy should get or how long you want him or what kind of contract even he would be seeking. Yeah, I mean, I think that the contract he got suggests that his services were in demand and beyond just the Astros, right? In addition to the 25 million to see what his what he looks like beyond whatever insight Houston had into his rehab and progress that way, one would imagine that they would have better insight than most, and we know he threw in front of teams. But if he's getting 25 million plus a $25 million player option year, you have to think that he was pretty well in demand and that Houston felt the differentiator was that player option because if he's great, if he's Verlander, he doesn't necessarily not exercise that option. I guess he could say, I was great, but I'm still the age I am, and even without the Tommy John part, I have to grapple with the realities of being in my late 30s. And so maybe he thinks the 25 million is the best you can do when he goes back to Houston for year two and everybody's happy because they get good innings and he gets to make $25 million, but they are carrying the risk that he just becomes a pumpkin. And then it can happen. It could happen. And then if that happens, he's definitely going to exercise his player option and make $25 million to be a diminished pumpkin. That's what we think of. Let me think of Justin Verlander pumpkins. And even if it does, he's a Hall of Famer already. Oh yeah, there's another pitch. But we are obviously banking on him throwing quite a few more pitches. So and as far as we know, I mean, yeah, I assume he's looking good. We haven't seen him, but teams have. Right. They must have liked what they saw. Right. I don't think that he gets this contract if, you know, they walk away from that workout and they go, he's cooked, like he won't be back. He has a history of doing this, right, of recovering. He's had down years and then we thought he was kind of done, and then he was excellent again. So I think that, you know, when you think about players who might be able to overcome the combination of Asian surgery, like he'd be on the top of that list for me, I guess we're gonna find out. But assuming that he is able to give them some good innings, I really like this move for them. Brennan goski wrote up the video for us at fan graphs and I think he made the good point that, despite Houston having starting depth, I think there are World Series runs showed that there is always the opportunity for more depth and some of that depth has its own injury and usage concerns, right? And so if Verlander is healthy and he's able to really anchor that rotation that gives them flexibility down the line and, you know, maybe that means that they move one of those guys. I guess that possibility exists, but I think that it probably means that some guys are more flexible in their role and sometimes pitch in the bullpen and sometimes start and they have flexibility come October and gives them some protection if Lance mcculler junior's injury proves to be worse than we've heard it to be at this point or if he has another problem. You know, he hasn't been injury free, really, almost any point in his career. So I think that it's a good move for both sides. This seems like, seems like a good deal. Yeah, I remember going into 2020. There was some consternation about the Astros rotation because Garrett Cole had departed. And so they were really depending pretty heavily on Verlander and cranky, which seemed you're counting on old guys to keep pitching at their prior level and then bro under got hurt in cranky was not his peak self. He wasn't bad that year. But he kind of declined in 2021 to the point that they weren't eager to use him in the postseason and he sort of had to be pressed into service, and now he's a free agent too.
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1772: Bananas in Pajamas
"Ben, how are you? Doing okay, how are you? Stove. It is starting to get hot. Not even stole league, which is also hot, but yes, the hot stove leak. Pitching market is moving. Move and move in. Yeah, so we got some stuff to discuss today. So we have the Jose barrios extension with the Blue Jays for 7 years, and we have the Eduardo Rodriguez signing with Detroit for 5 years, and then we have the Noah syndergaard signing with the angels for one year for all intriguing moves in their own ways. So things had seemed to start out slowly and we wondered whether the looming CPA negotiations would slow things down. But not in every case, at least it seems like some teams and players are motivated to get deals done before that other deal gets done. Yeah, I think that we had talked about the possibility of some of the non Marquis guys going in this little bit if they found a deal that suited them, although I didn't think that it would be like the Rodriguez's and the cinder guards. I was expecting we'd have like a flurry of reliever moves in this early going. So this is a higher profile of player and a potentially more impactful profile of player just by ritual starters instead of relievers than I was expecting. But it's nice to have a little transaction news to Toyota. So yeah for what might be a long couple of months. Numbers, 13 and 15 on Ben Clemens's fan graphs. 50 free agents list. So let's talk about Rodriguez for a minute 'cause this is one of my favorite off season things when a team to use an old effectively wild reference turns the corner. You know, when you exit the rebuild and you signal that you are ready to compete by making some big free agent splash and Rodriguez on his own may not constitute a big free agent splash it sounds like the tigers are continuing to be in the hunt for other top players. They've been linked to Carlos Correa via rumors, but this is a pretty significant signing and we talked about it last season that the tigers had turned the corner without everyone noticing necessarily, but they started off so slowly with an 8 19 record in April. And not that April doesn't count or that you can toss it out entirely, but they were a winning team from that point forward. They trailed only the White Sox in record among AL central teams after April. So again, like they seem to have the makings of a competitive team already. And now it seems like they are ready to spend. Maybe not to make ilitch levels, but at least to Chris ellich levels, I guess we'll figure out what those levels are. But this is technically a 5 year $77 million deal. There are some incentives there that could bring it up to 80. And there's an opt out after two years. So if things go well, then Rodriguez could test the market again when he's still 30 because he has only 28 now, or maybe he'll just be with the tigers for the long haul, but either way it's one of the things that they need it because they have this young exciting rotation with scuba and mice and Manning and those guys all showed promise at various points. But they needed some innings, they needed someone dependable to round out the rotation and Rodriguez has had his issues in his ups and downs, but he's coming off a good year at least if you dig a little deeper than the surface. That's because I'm sure that there are some tigers fans who are looking at this and thinking what we got a guy with a 4.74 ERA and I'm supposed to be excited about that. But the peripherals are strong. Yeah, he had a career best I believe in strikeouts and a career low walk rate and I think that the tigers infield does not like especially Sterling their defense generally is kind of below average, but it's not as below average as Boston's was this year. Good God, Boston. So you might expect that some things will kind of rebound for him. If things shake out well, he had, he had just like a ridiculously high bab allowed, I think when Ben wrote about it, it was second worst in the majors. And so yeah, 360 six. Yeah, and so and he did that despite having fairly normal contact quality. It wasn't like he was giving up a ton of hard hits or anything like that. His hard hit rate was below average. So I think that, you know, when you put him in front of a marginally better defense, and you know, one that could get say better if Carlos crayons part of it. And maybe a better park too than the old lefty and Fenway situation. Absolutely. And so I think that there are a number of things here that could move even his surface level stats in a good direction in a hurry and you know, when you look at those zips projections for him, they're pretty optimistic. And like you said, if things go well, he has the option to test the market again, but if things go well, maybe he looks around and was like, I am part of a resurgent Detroit tigers team and the skin is stay put and help them win some playoff games. So I really like this move for them. I think like you said, they have these young, starters, I think, having a guy who is reliable, who ended up being very durable this year despite missing an entire season because of heart concerns.
A highlight from How can the Red Sox improve this offseason?
"Get it because audio, AUD. I do get a whole I get it rob thanks. You can more importantly, you can follow rob on Twitter at Bradford as 85,000 other people do. You should be doing it as well. If you care whatsoever about the Red Sox, Major League Baseball or anything having to do with New England, you should rob is, you know, an outstanding follow. And in this day and age rob, of course, we should promote. Your podcast. Now I won't do that. Don't do that. I won't. No. Not a lot of drags. I'm gonna break the news right here. Wow, right. On the tracks podcast? Yes. That Brad faux show has been dissolved into the live BP podcast. Okay, I was going to also promote that podcast and that show as I appreciate that, but I didn't want to I know that people have collectors items, the Brad faux show, but we do the live BP show during the year. And I just felt like, you know, we just should just keep doing it through the off season. So we'll keep doing that. I appreciate it as always. Wow, breaking news right off the bat. Yeah, I mean, look at this. So it's, you know, I have all these t-shirts. Yes, you do. So I mean now let's go. Wow. These are gonna be like collective items. Yeah, these are gonna be like bury the bears T-shirt from 1986. So no, I remember those. Yeah. I do. So you can follow rob at live BP show as well all one word. That is correct, right? Yeah, that is correct. Live BP show. It's not only podcast, but it is also a baseball show on EEI every weekend. Correct? Terrestrial radio, but yeah, for the most part, you know, the off season, you know how it works. It's a myth, especially, you know, the prioritizing Mac Jones around here. But I've always said this tracks and you've heard me say it, one of the most popular sports in Boston is Red Sox off season. It is. I will stand firm in that cake. Well, that's a great leaping off point because is Edward Eduardo Rodriguez worth $77 million over 5 years. I'd say every other day start he is. So let's get out the tracks abacus and figure out exactly what that means in terms of dollars and so. I know you tweeted out he was one of the Red Sox for one O two and 16. One O 8 and 62. Yeah. And he starts, is that right? Yeah. That's his appearances, yes. You know, and people in the right where they say that wins and losses for pictures are overrated. They are. But I like wins and losses for teams when a pitcher like actually appears. Correct. Because it means that the starting picture is giving you a chance to win the game. Yes, yes. And so there was something to that stat for Rodriguez. Now, when you talk about that contract, I think it's a good contract for him. The reason why isn't because of the amount of money he made per year because it's not even what he would make as a qualifying offer. I think I know what you're going to say. Opt out after two years. It's your job, right? I mean, after two years, so you have the security, which is like every pitcher wants. You have the security of 5 years, which is, oh, my goodness. Anyone told me that halfway through this year that I read was going to get 5 years, I would be say you're crazy. You got 5 years. And if he's really, really good, he's going to be 30 years old, going back in a free agency and making a ton of money. It's a good contract for him. And he gets it gets the new contract before the end of the current collective bargaining agreement, which we'll get to in a second and how it's going to impact. And if he does well, he'll have the stability of that a presumably of the new CBA to work under those conditions. So it's a win win for him. Yeah, I mean, you're right, and you were seeing this. We always hear, well, the market's going to move quicker than normal. And it never does. It's been going the other way. And this case is obviously a different situation because of the potential lock out and CBA and everything else like this. But finally, you know, let's embrace it why we have it before we get into the mocking the Mayer of the stuff. Yeah, you know what? You have signings. I mean, you have that sign you have the Jose barrio signing. You have, which was, oh my with Toronto, right? The extension. I mean, it's actually yeah, yeah, I'm sorry.
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1771: Take the Money and Pun
"Yep. Scott Boris unloaded at the GM meetings this week. And you were probably tagged in many tweets that you perhaps have not seen yet. Yeah. Quotes. Maybe, don't know. Don't know. Usually Boris holds court at the winter meetings as well. But this year, there's some uncertainty about whether there will be winter meetings or at least the major league portion of the winter meetings. And so he emptied his notebook now, just in case there's a lockout. He is not leaving anything on the table here. So you have not seen most of the Boris quotes. Is that correct? That is correct. I know that they exist. Because I saw a couple of references to them in the Facebook group, but then I thought, ah, I am taking a little Twitter break for my own well-being. And so I will put this aside and not see any of the rest, and then allow allow them to wash over me in real time. Wow, that must have required real restraint to go looking for these Boris quotes. I mean, when a new Boris quote dropped, you just have to look it up immediately no matter what you're doing. Drop everything. And I thought that it would be, I thought it would be fun for our listeners who often enjoy hearing me react to stuff to react to things. And, you know, this gives you the opportunity to potentially play some tricks on me if you want to, about ones that are real versus not. So I thought for the good of the good of the pod for the enjoyment of our listeners, I would manage to restrain myself until today. Yeah, we can do a few fake or real forest quotes and then I'll just read you the rest of them. And he just owns baseball Twitter for a few hours every time he does this every time he debuts his stand up routine. And I reject the notion that there is some benefit to his clients here. I know that some people will say, well, yeah, it's getting his clients talked about. It's brilliant. It's like this galaxy brain interpretation of Scott Boris is stand up routine is that he's getting everyone to talk about his guys. But I just fail to see how that helps in any real way. I mean, it's not as if these clients are not known to be free agents. Right. I think all of the teams are well aware. In some ways, if he chose the really obscure clients on his agency's roster and he did puns about them, maybe that would really raise awareness about them. But he has some of the biggest free agents on the market as he usually does. He is representing Max Scherzer and Chris Bryant and Corey Seeger and Merck and semi and Castellanos and Michael conforto and carls radon. No one is not aware of these plays. And no GM or even owner is going to say, hey, that was a really clever pun you just made with that guy's name. We should go get that guy. And I really reject the idea that some brand is going to be like, yeah, we should make that player our spokesperson because look at all of the social media mentions. I guess like if you're just aggregating like how many times was this player's name mentioned on Twitter? Do we want to sign him to some big endorsement deal? Then I guess if there's some silly Boris quote, he's pumping up the numbers. But he started this before anyone really cared about social media mentions, I think. So I don't think that's his primary motivation here. I think he just wants to be the entertainer. He just wants to impress us all with his clever quotes. And it seems to work. We're all enabling him here by tweeting about him and talking about him. We have encouraged this behavior. If he just, if his act just died every time he deployed it, he would not do this year after year. So we are making it happen. But I just don't believe that there's any actual that this is like part of his job in any real way that this is him doing his job well. Right. I think that the brand that he is most concerned with in this moment is his own right he is. I think enjoys being not only is he powerful within the industry because of the guys he represents and the deals he is able to get for them. But, you know, he also likes to claim sort of cultural capital within baseball, and this is one of the ways that he does that, and I don't say that that might sound like I'm sort of ascribing judgment to it. I don't really mean it that way. I think that, you know, he, like I said, would be powerful within the industry regardless of whether or not he gave these quotes just by virtue of who he represents and how he does his job. But I think that being a cultural broker of some kind is something that he finds satisfying and I don't strongly that he thinks that this materially impacts the contracts that his clients are going to sign or the likelihood that a team is going to be like, oh yeah, that query seeker. He's pretty good, huh. Like, Max Scherzer, I don't know, he's been okay. But I think that it's not a bad thing for the sport to have a very prominent voice on the labor side of things for lack of a better way of putting it that is sort of given opportunity to hold court and express his perspective on where the game is at. I think, particularly in a year like this, that is, those are instructive tea leaves, even if they don't have to be quite so colorfully delivered, right? So yeah. I think I'm fine with that, but I'm with you. I don't think that there's a GM out there who's like, oh, you know, we were on the fence about that guy, but your dad joke, you know, that put a that put us over the line. Right. Yeah, you're right. I guess this does gain greater attention for his comments about competitive balance for agency in general. And he is delivering these at the GM meetings where all the executives get megaphones or owners meetings, owners get quoted and so this is kind of a counterpoint to that when he will rent about teams not trying, and so on. We will get to that. But yes, I think it is a valuable perspective to have. But I think the binders that he makes for his clients sometimes, you know, the big binders full of stats and graphics and gifts and videos and who knows what else and projections of how his free agents will age and everything. And those are also sort of silly because probably a team of front office is not going to take those into account. I guess potentially an owner might and sometimes Boris will do and around with the front office. Yeah. Go directly to the owner. And so you give the owner a big splashy binder and maybe they would be persuaded by something. But also, I think he does that primarily for the clients so that they can see, oh, look at all this work that this agency is doing on my behalf. And they really pumping me up and they're making me sound good and maybe the players don't even know whether that's really having an impact on their free agency. But I doubt any player is looking at Twitter on Wednesday this week and thinking, oh, wow, what a pun. He just ran so happy and represented by Scott wars. I would not be getting puns of this caliber from any other agency. Probably probably not. Although, you know, humor, comedy is it's difficult to parse sometimes what moves us to laugh or chuckle or even just say, yeah, that was a good one. Like, you know, sometimes that that is a complicated cocktail. So I don't know. I don't know what amuses baseball players. We talked about this on the pod before. I think it's possible that they're humor is at times different than the late person. So I don't know. I think you're right though that and I don't think either of us are suggesting that he is not doing actual work. But I think that there is something about the production of here's this binder with all of these projections that add sort of a weight to that work in a way that is I think tangible and easier to see in a way that might be sort of comforting, even though the real skill is the actual negotiation itself, right? I don't think that there's a ton of dispute about the guy said he has, although I'm sure that like many Asians like as he is endeavoring to be a good advocate for his clients, he might present to a team or I think you're right an owner. Well, here's an aspect of this player's game that's underappreciated like you should pay for this part. But I don't imagine that the actual sort of value and quality that a player is bringing to a team is in that much a dispute in these moments. But, you know, sometimes you're Corey seeker and the case is obvious.
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1770: Only the Finest Free Agents
"Hey everyone, this is Ben. And this is Meg. And before we start today's episode, we wanted to do a quick PSA about Patreon in about the listener support that makes this podcast possible. We tend not to do the hard sell around here. We rarely do any sort of cell actually. But we should probably remind people every now and then why we are listeners supported and what listeners can get in return for their support other than, of course, the pleasure of continuing to listen to us on this podcast. But at the beginning of every episode we say that this episode is presented by our Patreon supporters and we really mean that because we would not be able to continue to do the show, the way that we do it without that listener support and just to recap why the podcast is not part of my day job at the ringer, obviously, and I am not on staff at fan graph. So I'm not paid by fan graphs to do the podcast. I am paid by listeners through Patreon. And you, of course, are paid through fan grasps, but not explicitly for the podcast. I guess it's technically kind of part of your job, but it's not really part of the job that you were hired to do initially. And you have a full full-time job that has nothing to do with the podcast. So you have to make sure that the site keeps running in that there are posts and such. So the podcast is sort of an extra on top of that. And of course, you are doing it more than you initially expected to. So between those two things and of course, the fan graphs hosting costs for the podcast and the pay for producer and editor Dylan, et cetera, we need listener support to keep the podcast going in many listeners and have been gracious enough to support the show over the years. And generally, we have sort of struggled with figuring out how to reward them, what perks we should offer, because I guess there are a couple of approaches that people take. One is that you can take away something that people were previously receiving, right? And while off an episode a week and make that Patreon exclusive and I assume that would be a pretty strong incentive for people to pay, but I don't want to do that. If we can avoid it, I like having everyone be able to listen to the podcast. And similarly, I think we like having the podcast be ad free. And so if we had ads for everyone and an ad free version for Patreon people that would be an option. But we'd prefer not to do that too. And so generally we have opted to add extras, but there are some constraints there as well in that we already do a lot of episodes at this podcast. There's only so much time in our days and there's only so much baseball to talk about. So we're a little limited there too, but we have taken a fresh approach now and we have revamped our perks for Patreon supporters. And I think a lot of listeners have just supported the show because they like it and because they like that it's ad free and they just want to keep it going and thanks required. And we are very grateful for that. But if you'd like a little extra incentive, we have some of those for you. So I figured we could just run through some of the offerings that are available to Patreon supporters and some of the new ones that we are adding here. So you can sign up at any dollar amount the way Patreon works is that you sign up and then there's a monthly recurring charge at whatever level you choose. So you can sign up for a dollar prevent if you want and we're grateful for anything. But we have several preset peers at specific dollar amounts. The lowest of those is two 50 a month, that's the Ryan web tier named in honor of effectively wealth legend, Ryan Webb, the all time leader in games finished without a save. And previously, we had no extra perks at this level, but we're adding one, which is access to the new, effectively wild Patreon Discord channel. So Discord is the free voice and text chat platform and there is an effectively wild channel called discordantly wild that was started by listener and supporter Chris handel. And we are making that Patreon exclusive. There are a lot of channels there, game threads, podcasts, discussion, general baseball talk, transaction reactions, whatever you want, you can find it there and it's a whole community, just full of Patreon listeners. So if you want to talk about the podcast with other people who support the podcast or just the kind of wise and discerning fan who would listen to a podcast, such as this one, that's a great place to get your baseball talk in and we're also offering 50% off of all sports mogul computer games, so that's baseball mogul, football mogul, listener, clay dress flow is the creator of those long running and celebrated franchise. And he has graciously offered that discount as well. The next level is the $5 a month Williams asked the out here and here you can get thanked by name at the end of an episode and also, we are adding access to monthly, ask me anything podcasts. So we don't know exactly how these will work. But they're kind of off topic, just general discussion, podcasts that are provided exclusively to Patreon supporters at this level and above via a private RSS feed, which you can access in your podcast apps and basically you can just ask us anything. I mean, we won't necessarily answer anything, I suppose, but if you want to ask us about non baseball topics, if you want to ask us about our jobs, if we want to give recommendations for what shows we're watching or what books we're reading, we will just talk about other stuff. Maybe there might be a little bit of baseball talk, but it won't be a typical effectively wild episode. But it'll be sort of an episode length piece of content that is dropped every month and maybe this will be a bit naval gazey for some people. But if you listen to us a lot and you want to hear us talk about other things or want to know more about us, that will be a place where you can do it. The $10 a month, Ned garver tier, you also get access to two Patreon exclusive playoff live streams, which we've been doing for several years, and they're always a lot of fun. And you will also get early access to any episodes recorded in advance. 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A highlight from Family Program
"The podcast. This is a baseball tonight podcast for Tuesday. November 9th, 2021, and today will be better than yesterday, producing from his home studio in the foothills of Connecticut is Taylor Schwartz the rev. Never push your mother. I must your anger. Until they're dead. Now buster only working from my home in New York. Let's get into it. It's our first off season podcast Taylor. Very excited. I think, you know, we're doing one today. We'll do one next Friday. Yeah, absolutely. That's the idea here. We're gonna try and keep it as weekly as possible, we're even working around. I'm gonna be out of town for a week, so working around my vacation, yeah, this is exciting. I mean, there's tons of news. I was putting the rundown together last night, and
A highlight from Effectively Wild Episode 1769: The Lockout Lookout
"Hello. We've got a guest today because in many respects, this seems like the start of a normal off season, if you go to MLP trade rumors right now, you will see stories there that seem reflective of a normal early November, the news that often flows immediately after the start of the season has picked up as usual gold glovers are getting announced and the reds seem to be deconstructing their roster and players who played hurt in October like Alex Bregman or getting surgery and Jace tingler is the twins bench coach now and the mets have tried and failed to talk to many more GM candidates. And of course, free agent rankings are at fan grass, big top 50 list is out and he'll be trade rumors, list us out. And we will devote our next episode to that topic. However, this is not a normal off season, or at least not a normal month of the off season. And the idea that it's just going to be baseball business as usual is still somewhat aspirational. It is CBA season. And how and whether the negotiations get resolved is going to dictate what happens between now and opening day or what doesn't happen between now and opening day or even when opening day will be. And whether the hot stove season will be even lukewarm for the next few months. So we're going to talk about that today and joining us to discuss that subject is someone who has been and will be covering baseball's labor situation quite closely. Evan drelich, who is a senior writer for the athletic hello Evan. Hi, Ben, hi, mag. How are we doing? Doing okay for now. So I wanted to ask you how we're doing as a sport because that is something that you're covering right now and you're coming to us from the site of the GM meetings that are taking place this week and I imagine a frequent topic of conversation there will be so CBA. What's going on there? So you have been writing about that topic and I do want to back up and explain how the sport got to where it is and some of the history. But just sort of a snapshot of where things stand today. We are just a little over three weeks away from the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement at 1159 p.m. eastern on December 1st. So where are we? What's the outlook as best you can tell? You know, most people at this point seem to expect a lockout on December 2nd. So the deal expires 1159 p.m., Eastern Time on December 1st. And if there's no deal at that point in time, the owners are able to lock out the other side, meaning they would freeze everything there would be no free agency and at that point, the rule 5 draft, anything that would be part of a regular off season would halt until there is a new deal. So most people seem to think that's inevitable. What isn't clear is how long that lasts. You could have a lock out for three days. You could have it for three months. And that's really the money question. There's still a chance that they find a way to get a deal done in time for December 1st, but it seems very, very unlikely that if there isn't a deal done at that point, the owners would say, okay, we'll just keep bargaining and allow the off season to proceed normally. So no deal at December 1st, lock out, and then how long does it go? I don't want to skip to the end of the conversation, but just to give folks sort of a sense of the timeline here, what is the sort of last date at which we could see negotiations continue past December 2nd, right? We don't have a CBA. We're in a lockout, the two sides are trying to reach some sort of accord. What sort of the last date at which they could come to an agreement and we can expect to maintain the scheduled opening day? Because I think that for a lot of fans, this kind of back and forth stuff is interesting, but what they're really concerned about is, are we going to get a 162 games next season? And are we going to start relatively on time in order to do that? So what is your sense of where the edge of the cliff actually lies? Yeah, it's an interesting dynamic there, because you can argue, well, what does a lockout in December mean? Yes, free agency is bad for the industry to miss. It does put pressure on both sides to get a deal done. But players aren't paid until the regular season and spring training. There's some money as well. So it doesn't become meaningful or as impactful until something's on the line, which is games. And so one spring training rolls around if a deal isn't reached, that's when I think the pressure would ratchet up for both sides. And as far as an actual date, no one at this point said to me, this is the day that if we don't have a deal, we positively can not start spring training on time. This is the day we positively can not start the regular season on time. You'd have to have a ramp up to the regular season. So if it gets too late in the spring train, it's really an intuitive exercise. I think at the end of the day, how much time do you need for spring training? What's the bare minimum? I'm trying to think what it was in 2020 when they were restarting during the pandemic, maybe three to four weeks. Anything less than that, you probably would have to push the season back. And you could get to a scenario where, okay, the regular season is starting later. Well, can it be extended? Could you still squeeze in a 162 games in the I believe it was in 1990 lockout the season was pushed back about a week. They started a week late, but they were able to still get the full slate of games in. I think MLB worked out with CBS at the time who was carrying those games, the World Series games. They worked out a way to extend it. So, you know, you don't have to necessarily have the full spring training, but all of these are kind of frightening hypotheticals, but you will hit a point in time if they haven't reached a deal, probably late January, right? Spring training begins early February. And then you start to wonder well, okay, how long does it take to get guys to camp? And all the logistical things are really what start to matter. What pressure is there to actually get a deal done by the time the CPA expires? Is there sort of a sense of, oh, if we don't get a deal done then, then who knows, and so we just kind of want it to happen then or is there some force that is actually press people to agree on something they then? Because when my colleague at the
A highlight from Braves Parade & Free Agent Money
"Odyssey sports presents big time baseball with MLB insider John heman and former major leaguer Tony Gwynn junior. We have a newly crowned champ in Major League Baseball. You're listening to big time baseball, welcome in. I'm Tony gwyn junior alongside my partner, John Heyman. On the docket today, we're gonna talk about this braves World Series when what it means. If you get a chance to see the parade, some craziness going on there will always get into Heyman's inside corner quite a deep free agency class this year. We're going to touch on. And we most certainly will talk about the Hall of Fame, Barry Bonds, his last year on the ballot. Will he get enough votes to get in? I'll get a behind the curtain look with John Heyman who has a vote in this we'll talk to him about it. First, but first, let me let me welcome in John. John how you doing today? I'm good. How are you doing, Tony? I am doing well, baseball season has come to an end. I don't know that we expect it to be crowning the brazes champ, but the way they played down the stretch, it really isn't that much of a surprise. No, I mean, they were great in the second half. No, I didn't expect it. Maybe somebody did. I guess in our last podcast, we did talk about the fact we felt they had the advantage, not just because they were up three to two, but they had the pitching set up and that found out to be right. So let's pat ourselves on the back of about that otherwise I was completely wrong. I had Dodgers over Astros, didn't happen. I guess I was right that the Astros lost the World Series, but I had the wrong team. So I don't think that counts. Give the braves credit. Fantastic job. Great job I am topless. Great job by Brian snicker. Unbelievable that they got four outfielders who all contributed. I mean, obviously when they lost Acuna when they were 46 and 46, nobody, nobody foresaw the World Series for them. I think we weren't alone there, but you know, at the beginning of the year, we both did have them as the division champions. That probably isn't so hard looking back on it. But we thought they'd have Acuna and sirocco at some point and certainly didn't know what was going to happen with Ozuna. That's his own fault, but I mean, give them credit for rallying. It was a great story. It wasn't a great World Series, but it was a great story and applaud the braves. I tell you what, that is the definition of a mid season jackpot. If you're a GM and you're running baseball operations, the moves that Alex and Thompson made and ends up hitting on all of them. That is doesn't happen very often. You may hit on one or two, but when you make that many moves, generally, all of them don't come through like the way the braze did. And that staff in general, you know, from sticker to Washington to young. I mean, their whole entire coaching staff did a phenomenal job as well as the players. That's why their champs, the parade, however, was a little interesting. I mean, I don't know that I've ever seen a parade go that fast. I mean, the busboy had to be going somewhere around 40 mph. Not only that joc pederson was giving out pearls to everybody, and then Tyler magic almost gets arrested. It seemed like there was some confusion there. Nevertheless, the city of Atlanta got their parade though John. Yeah, I mean, they look like they had fun and thankfully nobody got hurt. I couldn't believe that video of that buzz rolling through. I don't know what was should have been stopped and given a speeding ticket. You know, I liked Peter. So that was a nice story with the pearls. I don't think they were real pearls, he was trying. I highly doubt they were, but I think it was a nice touch. He's a funny guy. Maybe that adds to his marketability as he's a free agent. I mean, you talk about the four guys that they got. I'm not sure which of the four actually was the most key. Peterson to get them through that first round, Rosario through the next round. So air in the next round and then do valves. The guy who can play center field and pulled it all together. So, I mean, you can make a case for all four guys. I mean, you know, Peterson really carried them past Milwaukee. I mean, he wasn't even starting for three out of four games and was clearly if they had MVP of the division series. He was it, and then, of course, was very unbelievable in the LCS and then solaire with the home runs in the World Series and, you know, it's going to play well for them in free agency. It's a layer and Rosario and Peterson all free agents. I think they'll probably bring one of them back, but I can't see them having room for more than one. They want to, I mean, obviously, Acuna will be back. Maybe that right at the very beginning, but he'll be back. Ozuna will see what happens there, but she they've got and do vows coming back. So, I mean, there's certainly room for one of them, at least. But I'm not certainly not all three of them are coming back. There's a jocks impact on that team. I think what will be just a playing field. I think that team was good day or talented all year, but it seemed like once he got there, they had a different attitude to him. It was a little more in your face and it seemed like the braves had kind of gone about their business in the past. And I thought it gave him a little bit of an edge. And certainly, it certainly showed once playoff time came. So they got some decisions to make. At this point, you gotta believe in Alex in the movie. You're gonna make. But he definitely got some tough ones to make as we get into free agency. And by the way, none of those moves will take place for quite some time. There's gonna be there's probably gonna be somewhat of a lockout at some point once the collective bargaining agreement doesn't comes to an end. And so my guess and tell me if I'm wrong on this, John, is there not there going to be any movement until that is eventually settled? Yeah, I'm not foreseeing much and I don't see much hope for anything being settled at the beginning in December when the CBA expires. I mean, I hope we're not depressing people here.